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THE Marc Faber Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Ludi » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 10:13:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'I') have found Faber to have well founded and well considered opinions.
.



When is the financial bust, useless dollar, and war predicted to occur (year)?
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby mcgowanjm » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 10:18:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'I') have found Faber to have well founded and well considered opinions.
.



When is the financial bust, useless dollar, and war predicted to occur (year)?


Like 1909, watch Mexico, Russia.

These guys have been as accurate as anyone. Read 'deflation'
in conjunction with default. The $ will be a safehaven until
people figure out where the 'lesser' currencies fit.


- Published on November 16, 2009 -


Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

In the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt... (page 2)
Read public announcement

The end of the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past thirty years
For sure the American consumer, incarnation of the American Dream since Henry Ford, has died.

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-39-Contents_a3996.html
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Ludi » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 10:30:18

So is the answer to my question "2010"?

Just trying to get a straight answer here. Thanks.
Ludi
 

Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby cipi604 » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 10:33:14

It's going to be war. Faber is always right.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Ludi » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 10:36:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'I')t's going to be war. Faber is always right.



Where? When? "There's going to be war" is pretty vague. There's always a war somewhere. Easy to be right about that.

"And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places." Matthew 24:6-7
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby cipi604 » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:02:55

2015

The bible is man-made btw, I wouldn't quote that. For a historic book to show everyone how people really behave in rought times it is a good read though.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Ludi » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:15:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', '2')015

The bible is man-made btw, I wouldn't quote that.



Why wouldn't you quote a man-made source to show people have been predicting wars, famines, and earthquakes for thousands of years? It's a safe prediction.

So the prediction is for 2015? Thanks.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby mcgowanjm » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:27:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o is the answer to my question "2010"?

Just trying to get a straight answer here. Thanks.


Yes. PO is the best measure. Mexico has not stopped Cantarell's
collapse.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby dsula » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:57:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', '2')015

The bible is man-made btw, I wouldn't quote that. For a historic book to show everyone how people really behave in rought times it is a good read though.


Some say the bible is written by man carefully guided by God.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Revi » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 12:32:57

I'm guessing that the financial bust comes a little sooner than that. The stimulus runs out next year, people are going to be running out of unemployment benefits around next February, the cost of oil goes up and for the average person it's begun. The war will follow, but we don't have the resources to carry it out.

I'm guessing 2012 is when TSHTF.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 13:02:59

My best guess on a timeline would be to look to history. Find the stage of deflation in the 1930's that correlates to where we are today. Then subtract that date from 1939, when Germany invaded Poland and voila you have your timeline.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby cipi604 » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 15:11:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'M')y best guess on a timeline would be to look to history. Find the stage of deflation in the 1930's that correlates to where we are today. Then subtract that date from 1939, when Germany invaded Poland and voila you have your timeline.

Things are moving faster now by about [sqrt6.(6)]/2
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Rod_Cloutier » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 16:06:07

You also have to consider what the other countries do if the US dollar is collapsing in value, an actual example today from Japan:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... y.xqXNa4ac

Japan is going to print Yen into circulation to keep their currency from appreciating relative to the US dollar, which is harmful to their export manufacturers. They know full well this appreciation is not due to a strength of the Yen but the collapse of the dollar, yet to be effective policymakers they must print Yen as a result. The Canadian government did the same thing about 3 weeks ago. The Canadian dollar was approaching parity with the US dollar, and the Canadian government stepped in and began flooding the market with BILLIONS of Canadian dollars to halt the appreciation.

As the US dollar continues to fall, expect every other nation to follow in turn, printing more of their currencies into existance to halt the appreciation caused by the dollar's collapse. Where this will take us I don't know? Expect the whole global economy at some point will dissolve into hyperinflation from all the money being printed into being?? Or, conversely, business as usual as other countries knowingly debase their curriencies to maintain the status quo??
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 17:07:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', ' ')Where this will take us I don't know? Expect the whole global economy at some point will dissolve into hyperinflation from all the money being printed into being?? Or, conversely, business as usual as other countries knowingly debase their curriencies to maintain the status quo??


And that's the reason for the runup in gold. Governments cannot print gold, after all. So gold and all the other commodities (including food) will keep going up and up and up.. until the bubble bursts and people move the money into dollars again.

I guess it's a game of musical chairs.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 18:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'A')s the US dollar continues to fall, expect every other nation to follow in turn, printing more of their currencies into existance to halt the appreciation caused by the dollar's collapse.

Inflation has truly become America's biggest export.

Which reminds me - I've bought quite a few books from the States (from visits to the US and from Amazon) and I have noticed an interesting thing - they were all printed in the United States. Seems like the printing industry the only industry that hasn't been shipped to China. Funny, really.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Rod_Cloutier » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 20:31:03

The news print industry is also doomed. I went to buy a newspaper last saturday and they rang up the till to $4.50 It had been months since I had bought a paper but this was a shock. I couldn't believe it $4.50 for a newspaper, I put it back. (Why buy the newspaper when anyone can get free online news 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, which is also often uncensored and unmoderated.)

If people can only afford to buy essentials the print industry will die a quick death. Libraries will be back in style.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby threadbear » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 22:25:45

The U.S. won't be going to war, unless there really is a huge threat. They just don't have the money for make believe anymore. Faber is flat out wrong on this one.
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby oxj » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 08:57:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')NTERNATIONAL. Marc Faber, the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor, said eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to continued stimulus.


The Dubai default may mark the beginning of this phase...

Dubai’s $59 billion default sends tremor through global financial system
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Re: Marc Faber: Financial bust coming, dollar useless, then war

Postby Sixstrings » Sat 28 Nov 2009, 15:44:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'W')hich reminds me - I've bought quite a few books from the States (from visits to the US and from Amazon) and I have noticed an interesting thing - they were all printed in the United States. Seems like the printing industry the only industry that hasn't been shipped to China. Funny, really.


Well, the wood pulp needed to make paper comes from the United States. And books are printed by machines anyway, it's not really labor intensive. So you see, it wouldn't make any sense to ship American wood to China just to have machines there print the books and ship the books back here. You can just have machines print them up here and save the cost of transport.

Now, manufacturing which can't be cheaply automated and therefore benefits from slave-wage human laobr, is of course done in China. When it comes to human labor, we'll ship a caesar salad or a snuggy around the world if it means we only have to pay folks ten cents an hour. :)

Ironically, the day when all manufacturing approaches 100% automation is when we might start to get our manufacturing back. The rub though is it will no longer employ many people, be they Chinese or American.
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