[TreebeardsUncle]

I have been doing something.
Does preying on other people's foolishness count?

Have moved on from trading oil stocks to metals particularly fcx, vale, and pcu.
Will get into ABX when the dip comes in late oct to early nov.

My mom has a big supply of water bottles.

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
That's kind of an obsessive Church-Lady way of looking at it. You might as well say anything that happens is because of the Big Bang. I mean, it just loses relevance if the connection is too distant.

[mcgowanjm]

I smell fear.

As the archdruid stated, the funds creating a bubble
must be reinvested back into that same bubble.

So all debt that has gone from the US Treasury
via Goldman has been made sterile.

When it, the credit, is then pulled, and at some point
it must be, the Upside Down Pyramid will not
collapse but disintegrate.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'M')y mom has a big supply of water bottles.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')Don't really think so, truth is that we are getting so deep in the crisis

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')Don't really think so, truth is that we are getting so deep in the crisis

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')But main street remembers that oil was at $150 in jul 08 no ?

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('neocone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')
I assume that you meant that it will NOT be as disorganized, chaotic, bloody and brutal as it could be. For the reasons you cite above--the media brainwashing, self-serving, iPod and Facebook society--I think this is exactly why there will be no revolt at all in America, big or small. The owners have positioned the people not to think for themselves, but to accept the massive brainwashed knowledge they receive on a daily basis as how life should be. This will not change anytime soon, so long as we have public media that ridicules independence and non-conformity and a government that continues to gain full control of our lives. True revolt requires self-sacrifice, free-thinking, and unity. These, sir, do not exist in our society..

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I')solated individuals can do little, reread your history of the first world war.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'a')n individual CAN light the match...

[eastbay]

Mos, those guys in your pictures have NEVER attacked anyone. Not even once.

The ones doing nearly all of the attacking are the USA and UK. Leader after leader from the US and UK attack some nation. Mindless war. It's a cultural thing. Everyone knows that.

[mos6507]

Eastbay, go take your case to the Nobel institute.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'E')astbay, go take your case to the Nobel institute.

[Novus]

My money is on this guy starting the next war.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'M')y money is on this guy starting the next war.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'M')y money is on this guy starting the next war.

[pup55]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonus_Army

In the spring and summer of 1932, there was an opportunity. 43,000 protestors had set up a Hooverville in Washington DC, to try to extract from the government their bonus from ww1, which was not scheduled to be paid until later. They needed it because they were literally starving..

Keep in mind that this was before the election of FDR.... Hoover was still President, and it was nearly three years after the initial crash of 1929. So, people were pretty ticked off.

Enough got to be enough, and the decision was made to break up the protest. The army was dispatched, led by Douglas MacArthur, and his right hand man, George Patton. Dwight Eisenhower was also present at the time.

At one moment, the US Army was assembled to attack their own veterans, it would have been quite possible for MacArthur to swing his army around 180 degrees, get the support of the veterans, arrest Hoover, and seize the government. The people out in the country were sick enough of Hoover to let him do it. Why he didn't will remain one of the mysteries of history. Surely being a thinking man, MacArthur knew there would be problems. Problem #1: Even if you do arrest Hoover, then what? Can you plausibly and legitimately operate the government, bureaucracy, collect taxes, and everything else that comes with it? I suppose it's do-able. Anyway the argument could be made that MacArthur was going to run for President himself at one point and thought he could win the legal way.

Eventually they violently and brutally cleared out the hooverville (Patton, the war hero, led the charge against the starving veterans), dispersed the protestors, and the outcry was such that FDR was elected and the Bonus Army was eventually given their bonuses early, and a lot of them were involved in working on the famous bridge project down in Florida when the WPA was started.

Anyway, here is what it will take for the revolution to actually happen. Keep in mind that it is perfectly plausible for just part of the nation to be in revolt, and a lot of it still trying to hold together:

a. Starving children. Right now, there are about 12 million children in the US receiving some sort of food stamp type aid from the goverment, out of about 80 million total kids in the country. You take that away, and 12 million moms hit the streets. The moms hit the streets, and then the dads hit the streets. The doomers can speculate about ways that this could take place, through economic distruption, food production issues, or whatever.

b. A factionalized military. In most of the revolutions, I am thinking Iran in 1979, Russia in 1917 and 1989, the USA in 1860, Germany in 1930, and any of a number you care to name, the turning point happened when some if not all of the military turned out for the rebels. Musharraf, of Pakistan, Moammar Khadafi of Libya, Robert E. Lee of the CSA, and George Washington of the USA are more examples of rebelling former or current military officers that was able to control a faction of the military.... Note: Right now, because of the "all volunteer army", the US military is as factionalized as it has been since 1865 because of the development of a "military caste" ...with a strong Christian Fundamentalist undertone extracted from the rural South. This has been well documented by various sources. At some point, in a revolution, the military is called on to fire on its own people.... and at that point, they have a choice....

c. Emergence of a charismatic leader, by whom, through the force of their personality, an alternative to the status quo is embodied. History echoes with these names, of course. Lenin, Hitler, Mao, the little chick in the Phillipines, Aquino, Walesa.... Boris Yeltsin? Maybe. we can go on and on. Naturally the leader is vulnerable to assassination ref: MLK...or arrest ref: Mandela. It is helpful for there to be an incompetent/doddering/corrupt leader to rebel against: In Iran, it was the Shah. In Germany it was Hindenburg, in Russia it was the Romanoffs. In the Phillipines, it was Marcos. In Cuba it was Batista. In Great Britain, it was King George III.

d. A competing ideology; In Iran, it was Islamic Fundamentalism. In Russia it was Communisim in 1917 , and then, in 1989 it was Capitalism. In Germany, well, we all know that one. It is helpful to have both an ideology and a charismatic leader at the same time. An argument can be made that there was one developing in the middle east in 32 AD, but the leader was assassinated before the military could be turned, and nothing much ever became of it.

d. Compliance, if not support, of the aristocracy. This is not 100% a reliable indicator, because of course there are plenty of instances where the revolution was explicitly against the aristocracy, but in a lot of the South American revolutions the rebels have at least the acceptance if not outright support of one faction or another of the wealthy in the country, who see the writing on the wall and consider their own hides to be safer with the rebels versus the guys in power.

f. A trigger event. History echoes with these names too: Harper's Ferry, The Reichstag, The Boston Massacre, Surely we can think of some more. Some event that ticks so many people so far off that they take to the streets. The Rodney King beating and subsequent riots are a prime example of a small scale incident of this type.

So there are at least six key factors, and I am ready to say that #1 is the most important, in terms of the likelihood of a place to go up in flames.

I can think of at least a couple of revolution scenarios that could work, at least regionally within the US. With a little encouragement I will share them with you.

[allenwrench]

The writing is on the wall. All guns must be confiscated before the class wars get out of hand. As the disparity between the rich and poor escalate, the poor will start class wars as they have done throughout history when he rich crowd out their very survival through greed.

The poor have no other alternative-do they? The rich control the gov and only pass legislation to benefit the rich.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Class_conflict

I read some town in OH banned trash picking. If your caught digging through the trash you can be fined $500 or jailed for 30 days. People that trash pick generally are not rich. They do it trying to survive. Now the local gov has taken away the unemployed's last hopes for honest work of some sort. What is left for them to do to try and eat?

Seems to be many such trends chipping away at our very survival before the SHTF comes knocking at our door. So even if none of our SHTF scenarios come to fruition, living life itself can be a survival feat nowadays. Just look at the Individual Mandate the gov has proposed to fine the poor for not being able to afford health insurance.

I talked with a trash man the other day. I noticed he was working all alone and asked where his buddy was. He said his company keeps downsizing the crew. His trash crew used to consist of a driver and 2 men to load. Then it was cut back to a driver and a loader. Now he does it all - he drives, gets out and loads the trash then back in and drives on.

I asked if the company was worried about burning him out in the icy winter and humid summers. He said there is a line of guys a mile long waiting to take his place when he can't do it any longer. I guess if the trash company could do it by robots they would cut him out as well.

Another guy I talked with said his company converted a lot of the workforce to part time, so they did not have to offer benefits.

A lady mental health therapist said her firm was trying to encourage the higher paid senior therapists to leave, so they could replace them with younger therapists that are paid much less and can be worked longer hours.

The other day I called up toll free directory to find an 800 number. In the old days a live person answered the phone. then they got rid of most of the people and a computer answered the phone. If the computer didn't work, you had the option to talk with a live operator. Now you just talk with the computer and if the computer fails, they just refer you to their website and have dumped all live help.

I'm sure we have all talked with some workers in India trying to figure out some customer service problem we are having.

And parking lots? The trend is computerized self serve and dump the gate attendant.

I guess it all started back in the 70's, when China opened up and the turbo capitalist realized how much more money they could make by dumping the US workers and shipping production overseas. Maybe that was the deal Nixon made? You (China) stop trying to take over the world with communism and we will buy your crap so your people can eat?

[Cloud9]

Pub +1

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '[')url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonus_Army[/url]



d. A competing ideology; In Iran, it was Islamic Fundamentalism. In Russia it was Communisim in 1917 , and then, in 1989 it was Capitalism. In Germany, well, we all know that one. It is helpful to have both an ideology and a charismatic leader at the same time. An argument can be made that there was one developing in the middle east in 32 AD, but the leader was assassinated before the military could be turned, and nothing much ever became of it.