[Graeme]

Peak oil before 2020 a 'significant risk', say experts

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new report highlights how woefully unprepared the Government is for a looming peak in oil production
There is a 'significant risk' that conventional oil production will peak before 2020, and forecasts that delay the event beyond 2030 are based on assumptions that are 'at best optimistic and at worst implausible'.

So says a major new report that puts the excitement over recent ‘giant’ oil discoveries into perspective and directly contradicts the British government’s position. It also warns that failure to recognise the threat of peak oil could undermine efforts to combat climate change.

The report, entitled 'Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production', comes from the UK Energy Research Centre, an independent group funded by the Research Councils, whose mission is to resolve contentious technical issues and deliver clear guidance for policymakers.

[KevO]

2020?

not 2005 or 2008 or 2009?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.

The UKERC argues that each additional 1 billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a week. To postpone the peak by a year would take 7 times what was discovered in 2007. 'We’re unlikely to explore our way out of this,' says Sorrell.

[lowem]

Hell yes.

Long after the final level boss eats your player for lunch and the screen has stopped flashing "GAME OVER" in very large letters, we'll have the academic committees coming up to tell you that there is a "significant risk" that you may lose the game due to statistical probabilities of winning based on *their* modelling of *your* past performance.

Ah, where was I? Yes. "GAME OVER". We've already peaked. All that's left are the semi-crazy (or fully crazy take your pick) sources labelled unconventional, deep-sea, shale, and right ... methane hydrates.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Ah, where was I? Yes. "GAME OVER". We've already peaked. All that's left are the semi-crazy (or fully crazy take your pick) sources labelled unconventional, deep-sea, shale, and right ... methane hydrates.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.

The UKERC argues that each additional 1 billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a week. To postpone the peak by a year would take 7 times what was discovered in 2007. 'We’re unlikely to explore our way out of this,' says Sorrell.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.

The UKERC argues that each additional 1 billion barrels delays peak oil by less than a week. To postpone the peak by a year would take 7 times what was discovered in 2007. 'We’re unlikely to explore our way out of this,' says Sorrell.

[mos6507]

We haven't "peaked" in my mind until we're well over $150/bbl and stay there. All those other metrics are meaningless to me.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')e haven't "peaked" in my mind until we're well over $150/bbl and stay there. All those other metrics are meaningless to me.

[ian807]

The only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

On the good/bad news front, prices will shoot *way* up before then, making the long tail of oil last longer, hopefully giving us the breathing space to get more new energy technologies somewhere near practical.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Dollar price is not a good measure,

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'T')he only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')e haven't "peaked" in my mind until we're well over $150/bbl and stay there. All those other metrics are meaningless to me.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe $130/BBL would lead to "sustainable" production and demand slide?

[Pops]

OK, here's what's gonna happen, any thread that becomes a food fight with short will be split with general arguments going here
http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/ ... 56330.html

Simple food fight stuff will be deleted.

Argue all you want on the topic at hand.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'T')he only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'T')he only statistic I watch is energy return on energy invested (EROEI). When that hits 1 to 1 (i.e. 1 barrel of oil is needed to get one barrel of oil out of the ground), it's sort of game over time for oil as a significant energy source.

[Maddog78]

I see now I made a mistake.
ian doesn't calculate eroei, he watches that statistic.
I sure would like to see that link.