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A bleak picture as oil production slides

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby jbrovont » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 20:25:34

All you do is post more unsubstanciated rant and change your position when you get cornered. Trying to make other people look "wrong" when your argument doesn't hold water in the hopes that you don't have to prove you assertions is...well you seemed eager to label argument types earlier - why don't you tell us the name of that particular style sos?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Do you really believe your disjointed rants or my unserious responses have any value here at PO?


That depends on the audience doesn't it? For example, whether or not the audience believes that someone with a degree in science but not a clue what sublimation is, is being "unserious" or just doesn't have a clue for example.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', '
') I have a reason for engaging you---to offset the apathy your denial might instill in others.


Then why don't you do so? Starting with the most recent question I asked....to show the apathetic how the all encompassing power of EROEI dropping for the past century had something to do with the most recent peak, and the accompanying production slide? That is the topic at hand, no matter how often you want to make the topic personal.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 20:44:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'A')ll you do is post more unsubstanciated rant and change your position when you get cornered. Trying to make other people look "wrong" when your argument doesn't hold water in the hopes that you don't have to prove you assertions is...well you seemed eager to label argument types earlier - why don't you tell us the name of that particular style sos?


Interesting opinion.

I thought my position was perfectly clear when cornered, here, let me repeat it.

EROEI is irrelevant to the oil industry. EROEI is irrelevant to why production increased to peak, or decrease after it.

Pretty short argument to strike both you and Pstarr speechless in response.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 21:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'E')ROEI is irrelevant to the oil industry. EROEI is irrelevant to why production increased to peak, or decrease after it.

That statement profoundly ignorant and meaningless, especially in this context.


Then refute its basis. Find someone who drilled a well because of its superior EROEI. Find someone on Wall Street who issues a "Buy" order because they think a company has "superior EROEI". Round up some companies financials where they site "high future expectations because of excellent EROEI potential". Find a well which declined because of EROEI rather than depletion of its natural drive mechanism.

Just one will do for starters. Millions of wells drilled, thousands of companys drilling them for more than a century, just go find ONE. Then you can claim, on that basis, that I am wrong. Until then, based on your factual credibility, I don't have to take your word alone as the basis for anything.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', '
') It is a jumble of misinformation and jumbled thinking, especially the second sentence. No intelligent member of this forum would suggest that EROEI (positive or negative) is a cause of peak.


Then refute it. Should be easy, considering how its all misinformation and jumbled thinking.I've even supplied plenty of clues of where you can start...don't like them? Dredge up your own.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby jbrovont » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 22:09:31

That's not an argument, it's an assertion. It's also not your original assertion, which was that oil production isn't affected by EROEI which is distinctly different that what you just stated. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I')nteresting opinion. I thought my position was perfectly clear when cornered, here, let me repeat it.
EROEI is irrelevant to the oil industry. EROEI is irrelevant to why production increased to peak, or decrease after it. Pretty short argument to strike both you and Pstarr speechless in response.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 22:47:41

Does anyone even care about what shorty is plugging away at here?
Ok 1st his supposed allies: Pops 1st. Pops is an old fart realist with no time for high falutin conceptual lingo; a down to earth realist.(no offense Pops). MD is a pragmatist who doesn't like clouded messages or mixed up language. Maddog is an oilman.
None of these has attacked the concept of EROEI; merely it's missuse.
EROEI is a big picture concept which applies in any language from macro to micro.
It is not the basis of business decisions because money was invented some tome ago.
The 3 amigos shorty is trying to drag back into this silly semantic argument have lost interest. They have said what they have to say on the subject; they have no need to rant and rave about the concept of EROEI being a fabrication.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 22:49:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'T')hat's not an argument, it's an assertion. It's also not your original assertion, which was that oil production isn't affected by EROEI which is distinctly different that what you just stated.


Well, I am not clairvoyant, so I'm not sure which particular assertion, many of which are variations of a theme, to which you refer. So I went back through the entire thread, collected them all, and here they are. I stand behind all of them because they are all basically variations on a theme.

Pick your favorite, heck, I'll even number them in order for you!! But do please try to relate them to oil declines in some form or fashion, that would help keep things on topic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shorts Assertions in this thread', '
')
1) The EROEI is just a distraction dreamed up as some sort of theoretical distraction so peakers
can talk about something other than how well this post peak world has been going.

2) Crude was expensive in 1900 compared to 1930, and EROEI was irrelevant during both time periods.

3) It is not an attack to notice, for the record, that oil and gas people use no part of this particular peaker strawman (EROEI) when considering, designing, drilling, completing, producing or collecting the revenue from a producing well.

4) EROEI is a peaker strawman. It's designed to bring another science concept into an economic argument where it has no relevance at all.

5) EROEI is a nice theoretical concept which in a world measured in energy units would be completely reasonable. We don't live in that world yet. When we do, IF we do, then people can rant about EROEI all they would like.

6) Costs have nothing to do with EROEI and are the appropriate measure of how wells get drilled, just like MadDog has said.

7) Energy certainly does matter. Pstarrs pretend calculations of how it should be important to the oil industry when it has never been demonstrably used there are as irrelevant as the concept itself at the level of peak oil mythology.

8 ) Its all in the economics. Which is why...the EROEI is irrelevant at any scale contained within the peak oil mythology.

9) EROEI is a joke. To date, MD has quantified why money and energy aren't the same thing, and I believe Pops just came up with the verbiage for why EROEI doesn't matter as well.

10) Easy. Costs are not included in any EROEI calculation I've ever seen listed here or anywhere else. Its an energy metric....so much goes in, so much comes out. No cost involved, just energy.

11) EROEI is irrelevant to the oil industry. EROEI is irrelevant to why production increased to peak, or decrease after it.

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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 22:54:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')Maddog is an oilman.
None of these has attacked the concept of EROEI; merely it's missuse.


Lets not misrepresent SeaGypsy. MadDog said its NOT used, ever, and any use of it would be interpreted as a joke. Thats not misuse, thats complete and utter disrepsect of it as a meaningful metric, not some little boo-boo in the decimals or an accidental useage during drilling but not production operations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeGypsy', '
')EROEI is a big picture concept which applies in any language from macro to micro.


Then the issue is easy. Show us how the oil industry uses this measure in deciding to do whatever it is they happen to be doing. Millions of wells, thousands of companies and 100+ years of production, find someone who used this big picture concept in the language of the oilfield. Micro? How about producing a well? Easy one. Macro? Tell us which company gets a "Buy" recommendation because of its EROEI potential, should be quite common on Wall Street, if its actually used that way.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 07 Oct 2009, 23:06:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')Maddog is an oilman.
None of these has attacked the concept of EROEI; merely it's missuse.


Lets not misrepresent SeaGypsy. MadDog said its NOT used, ever, and any use of it would be interpreted as a joke. Thats not misuse, thats complete and utter disrepsect of it as a meaningful metric, not some little boo-boo in the decimals or an accidental useage during drilling but not production operations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeGypsy', '
')EROEI is a big picture concept which applies in any language from macro to micro.


Then the issue is easy. Show us how the oil industry uses this measure in deciding to do whatever it is they happen to be doing. Millions of wells, thousands of companies and 100+ years of production, find someone who used this big picture concept in the language of the oilfield. Micro? How about producing a well? Easy one. Macro? Tell us which company gets a "Buy" recommendation because of its EROEI potential, should be quite common on Wall Street, if its actually used that way.


Are you on Prozac?
Who cares if the oil industry is not using EROEI? How does that make any difference to the concept? It doesn't even touch it.
The way Governments talk about business has it's own semantics.
The way management talks about business has it's own semantics.
The way workers talk about government and business has it's own semantics.
The way economists talk about Government, business and workers has it's own semantics.
The way conceptualist peak energy students talk about economics, Government, business, and workers has a blend of the semantics of all of these groups. That is where EROEI comes from and that isn't your problem or anyone elses. If you don't like the concept don't use it. If you can't accept that this site is a peak oil site and as such is the home of such conceptual semantics as EROEI maybe you should find another forum where your semantics are those in common use?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Quinny » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 02:08:57

They may not consider EROEI, but they should!

As you quoted MD Btu's are constant - currencies aren't.

Highly productive pit's were closed back in the 70's which will probably never open again, because their was no consideration to EROEI!

A major cause of disagreement here is that some do not accept a link between energy and wealth and hence do not really accept peak oil is a major problem.

I do accept the link, so it's a waste of time engaging with them - take my advice and just have the odd laugh at them.

The real disconnect is between real wealth and money!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')Maddog is an oilman.
None of these has attacked the concept of EROEI; merely it's missuse.


Lets not misrepresent SeaGypsy. MadDog said its NOT used, ever, and any use of it would be interpreted as a joke. Thats not misuse, thats complete and utter disrepsect of it as a meaningful metric, not some little boo-boo in the decimals or an accidental useage during drilling but not production operations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeGypsy', '
')EROEI is a big picture concept which applies in any language from macro to micro.


Then the issue is easy. Show us how the oil industry uses this measure in deciding to do whatever it is they happen to be doing. Millions of wells, thousands of companies and 100+ years of production, find someone who used this big picture concept in the language of the oilfield. Micro? How about producing a well? Easy one. Macro? Tell us which company gets a "Buy" recommendation because of its EROEI potential, should be quite common on Wall Street, if its actually used that way.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby jbrovont » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 02:39:56

The only reason oil ever came into use as a fuel to begin with, is that obtaining it has a high EROEI. If oil didn't yeaild more energy than it took to get it, it would never have been used as a fuel. If the EROEI for oil wasn't large, we wouldn't have an economy based on oil - we'd still have an agrarian economy. Fractional EROEI is only viable for fuels/products that aren't the main-stay energy for the world (like oil shale for instance). Spending more oil to get less oil just plain isn't going to happen, so unless you're invisioning oil rigs run by nuclear reactors instead of generators, you still have to make good with EROEI. If 1 BTU of oil drawn energy can't extract 1 BTU plus profit, it's not going to happen.

There's a very simple explanation as to why EROEI hasn't been largely used in the oil industry to determine the viability of operations: in business, you call it ROI. It takes energy to make stuff and do things - that energy costs money, and comes from oil. Oil companies are already making decisions based on EROEI - decisions not to do exploration, to buy new rigs, etc. Because it costs more than the operations would pay out. Our world economy is based on energy: and energy money are coupled - just like EROEI/ROI.

Money = work = energy.

In a fiat system (which we have) money = a *promise* to perform some work, but it's still bound to energy - future energy production and then consumption.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby EndOfGrowth » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 05:34:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'P')eak oil is the moment when the Titanic hit the iceberg. Most people won't notice anything for a while. If you happened to be looking over the edge you might have seen it, but most people are still blissfully unaware.



I believe that to be revisionist history. Here is what peak oil was supposed to cause, in some cases WITHIN days of it happening. The new theory of "gee, everything is going exactly as planned, dropping prices, full inventories, no one even noticing the landing will be so gentle as we transition happily into a lower demand world" is most certainly not what I recall reading while peak was happening.

http://www.bluegreenearth.us/archive/ar ... -2005.html


SOS didn't notice anything either-- like a world wide PO induced credit collapse :roll:
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 10:07:59

There are characteristics about fuels and energy BEYOND EROEI.

Things like ease of use, storage, portability, transportability, reliability.

Picture trying trying to put a satellite in orbit using coal?

How about powering a car with wood? Or for that matter a train?

Nuclear powered airplane?

How about solar on a cloudy day or wind power on a calm day? How about transporting solar power to where it is cloudy?

If someone tomorrow came up with a re-chargeable battery the size of a dime that could store the equivalent of 500 gallons of gasoline and it only took 15 minutes to charge it, and it kept 99% of its charge for a week of non-use, and it cost $20, I don't think we'd have a peak oil issue.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Quinny » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 10:21:46

Accepted, but it is still a key measure that should be given more credence. I believe it is bound to be used more across all areas of Government and Commerce in future.

When involved in developing Green Strategies in the 80's, I campaigned for the development of an 'Energy Accounting System' which looked at truer costs than just the LSD. EROEI goes some way to addressing this.

SOS may be correct in saying that EROEI may not be used at an operational level in the Oil industry, but I would doubt that very much to be true at strategic level. If CEO's of major corporations (not just Oil companies) are not considering it when making strategic plans they are IMO being very short sighted or short on sense indeed.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 10:28:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If someone tomorrow came up with a re-chargeable battery the size of a dime that could store the equivalent of 500 gallons of gasoline and it only took 15 minutes to charge it, and it kept 99% of its charge for a week of non-use, and it cost $20, I don't think we'd have a peak oil issue.



EXACTLY. which is THE arguement for EROEI:

No one can come up with it, no matter how much energy
is thrown at the problem. Light Sweet Crude just under the sand
whose problem is too much pressure can (could) not be beat.

There is nothing to replace it with, except collapse.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 10:40:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'T')here are characteristics about fuels and energy BEYOND EROEI.

Things like ease of use, storage, portability, transportability, reliability.

Picture trying trying to put a satellite in orbit using coal?

How about powering a car with wood? Or for that matter a train?

Nuclear powered airplane?

How about solar on a cloudy day or wind power on a calm day? How about transporting solar power to where it is cloudy?

If someone tomorrow came up with a re-chargeable battery the size of a dime that could store the equivalent of 500 gallons of gasoline and it only took 15 minutes to charge it, and it kept 99% of its charge for a week of non-use, and it cost $20, I don't think we'd have a peak oil issue.


Thanks Ranger for this insightful observation. The imaginary battery that you describe would probably be frightfully dangerous, if it could hold the potential energy of 500 gallons of gasoline. I have seen lead acid batteries start electrical fires.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby EndOfGrowth » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 10:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If someone tomorrow came up with a re-chargeable battery the size of a dime that could store the equivalent of 500 gallons of gasoline and it only took 15 minutes to charge it, and it kept 99% of its charge for a week of non-use, and it cost $20, I don't think we'd have a peak oil issue.



EXACTLY. which is THE arguement for EROEI:

No one can come up with it, no matter how much energy
is thrown at the problem. Light Sweet Crude just under the sand
whose problem is too much pressure can (could) not be beat.

There is nothing to replace it with, except collapse.


Are you not familiar with the compact nuclear-energy Iridium cell?

http://terminator.wikia.com/wiki/Fuel_cell

:razz:
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby Pops » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 10:58:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'E')ROEI is irrelevant to why production increased to peak, or decrease after it.

I don't usually pay much attention to what you say sos, as it's usually an empty argument but this is pretty obviously wrong - at least if the premise of po is valid.

The whole problem posed by PO is that easy to extract oil will be used first and harder to extract oil last, EROEI is a good measure of that increasing difficulty.

It's not going to be the metric used to decide which individual well gets drilled, that will be profit margin, but it will give an idea of how far down the depletion path we've come.
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 11:40:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Are you not familiar with the compact nuclear-energy Iridium cell?

http://terminator.wikia.com/wiki/Fuel_cell

:razz:


No, and neither is anyone else. When's it available? Before
or after the unruly Power Grid goes down.

8O

And of course we'll get not one word on how we retrofit
our entire economy to fit this fuel cell when/if it gets cheaper than a gallon of gasoline. And the EROEI of that. :?
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Re: A bleak picture as oil production slides

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 08 Oct 2009, 12:15:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Are you on Prozac?


Is English your first language? 8O

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')The way conceptualist peak energy students talk about economics, Government, business, and workers has a blend of the semantics of all of these groups.


I have never seen a course of study in any curricula, anywhere, which offers any type of degree in "Conceptualist Peak Energy", therefore I cannot verify that it requires, much less involves, the list of topics you mention.

Peak oil mythology is certainly a blend of different facts, a fair amount of conjecture, mixed with endless amounts of speculation. This has nothing to do with EROEI, nor production declines because of it, or related to it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')That is where EROEI comes from and that isn't your problem or anyone elses. If you don't like the concept don't use it.


I don't. And from the professional references we have here, neither does the industry which is central to the entire argument. Which is precisely my point.

I have simply boiled down what the industry experts have told us at this site, and which has not been refuted by anyone yet, either with appropriate links or professional experience, to whit, EROEI is irrelevant in the oilfield and has nothing to do with either the production increases leading up to peak, nor the production decreases after peak.
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