Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 19:43:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
Why do they publish this crap?

ad hom deleted Just as a conservative Forbes magazine published a commentary which seemd to endose peak oil, a liberal newspaper like the NYT is now publishing a commentary which seems to debunk peak oil. This says nothing about the relative intelligence of the staff of either Forbes or the NYT, it simply means they're printing a variety of opinions, as they should. There is nothing "crappy" about publishing a variety of opinions.


The author of that article has posted to this website, more than a few times. His qualifications to comment on the topic of peak oil, at either the practical or theoretical level, are more than substantial and certainly dwarf those of nearly everyone else here.

These qualifications and expertise would be trumpeted from the rooftops of peakdom if he agreed with the prevailing opinion. Instead, his article, which I thought was completely reasonable and covered the basics of why peak oil hysteria just doesn't hold up to reality very well, is instead treated not as the objective and well thought out position of an educated man with experience in the industry but as the ramblings of some unqualified idiot. And this disdain is brought to bear without a seconds consideration of the merit of the ideas, or of comparing the future as claimed in 2005 with the reality of our post peak world.

Shame on us for the lack of honest discussion about his ideas rather than just the typical knee jerk reaction to insult anyone who doesn't buy into peak oil doom because we obviously aren't capable of refuting the ideas.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 19:47:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')orbes magazine


That rag. I wouldn't wipe my arse with that thing! :badgrin:
vision-master
 

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 21:44:48

Lynch refused to post here after he stopped replying to posts asking for his explanation behind his forecasts.

He is master of saying something without backing it up with facts, as today OP-ED will attest to.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 21:52:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'L')ynch refused to post here after he stopped replying to posts asking for his explanation behind his forecasts.


I noticed the threads. "Hounded" would be a better adjective than "asking".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')He is master of saying something without backing it up with facts, as today OP-ED will attest to.


I haven't noticed a single "fact" of his article disputed yet, only people bashing him.

He made 3 major points as to why peak oil wasn't the end of the world its advocates make it out to be. If his statements aren't supported by the evidence, why doesn't anyone dispute what he said, it being so easy and all, what with him not providing anything based on facts?
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 21:56:44

of2; yeah a variety of opinions would be good

so how about a rebuttal by peakoil.com??
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 21:57:34

For anyone who is interested, there are 180 comments and climbing at the New York Times, most disputing the points Lynch made.

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/w ... lynch.html
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')or anyone who is interested, there are 180 comments and climbing at the New York Times, most disputing the points Lynch made.

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/w ... lynch.html


I read the first one. It was a joke. Are the others any better?
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby JJ » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:32:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'o')f2; yeah a variety of opinions would be good

so how about a rebuttal by peakoil.com??


"the oil drum" has already put up a rebuttal.

and one of the letters after the rebuttal:

(4) I am intrigued by the NYT Op-Ed editorial policies. .. Is there
really that much controversy over the ‘peak oil’ theory today? How
does the NYT publish something w/so little vetting?

Some insight into the NYT policies which gave rise to the Op-Ed on peak oil by Michael Lynch is provided on the front page of the print version of the paper (today):

(three inch ad across entire bottom of front page with a graphic of a car made from brown and green dots)

"- fuel for thought -
Energy from Algae.

The energy from algae holds potential as an economically viable, low emission transportation fuel. ExxonMobil is partnering with Synthetic Genomics Inc., as part of a major long-term research and development program aimed at developing algae as a viable fuel source. And because they consume CO2, algae could help reduce greenhouse gases.

To learn more, go to www.exxonmobil.com <http://www.exxonmobil.com>.

ExxonMobil
Taking on the world's toughest energy challenges."

I like the New York Times for many reasons. However, on the subject of peak oil it is blinded by loyalty to one of its principal advertisers.
User avatar
JJ
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1422
Joined: Tue 07 Aug 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:34:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')or anyone who is interested, there are 180 comments and climbing at the New York Times, most disputing the points Lynch made.

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/w ... lynch.html


I read the first one. It was a joke. Are the others any better?
Everyone is wrong except you.

And who else?


I asked a specific question. If Lynch is so wrong, why doesn't someone around here offer to knock down one of his 3 items, rather than just pretending he is an ignorant fool? Strikes me as a perfectly fair question.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:37:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually Short other than you and a few cornies here at PO.com, who actually has come out to dispute a finite planet and several strategic minerals?

Would you be so kind as to list them for us?


Lynch didn't say anything about the strawmen which are assembled here within a heartbeat of someone questioning a particular peakers cherished belief system. Lynch had 3 specific reasons for his conclusions, why don't you refute those? I certainly don't recall Lynch mentioning how a finite planet was any one of his 3 points, it requried someone constructing a strawman, and assigning it to him, so that you can then accuse others of not knowing something. And all because....its too difficult to actually refute his idea?
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:43:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'T')aking on the world's toughest energy challenges."

I like the New York Times for many reasons. However, on the subject of peak oil it is blinded by loyalty to one of its principal advertisers.


Could you please reference the email, letter, or evidence that an advertiser of the NYT contacted said NYT and demanded that a long time proponent of non peak oil consequences be forced to write an Op-Ed for them, as a condition of their advertising dollars continuing to go to the paper?

Just any proof beyond random speculation on your part will suffice. A link to an email perhaps, letter, canceled check with "Get Lynch To Write Or Else" made out to the NYT or any of its editors, something along those lines would be fine.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:45:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'F')or anyone who is interested, there are 180 comments and climbing at the New York Times, most disputing the points Lynch made.

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/w ... lynch.html



Thankfully the positions presented in the NYT article are getting countered by the responding commentary nicely, thoroughly, and resoundingly. Congratulations to all of you! :)
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
User avatar
eastbay
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Sat 18 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 22:49:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')I asked a specific question. If Lynch is so wrong, why doesn't someone around here offer to knock down one of his 3 items, rather than just pretending he is an ignorant fool? Strikes me as a perfectly fair question.
His entire argument rests on the very same logical fallacy you repeat over and over and over again. And a refusal to recognize a finite planet earth.

This is really very silly stuff


And you still haven't chosen a single one of his points to refute. With some 4 years now refuting every "cornocopian" who dares peak around a corner, are you honestly trying to imply that you don't have ready arguments to knock down every single point which comes by which has the potential to conflict with your belief system?

That is more surprising then Lynch's article, actually.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 23:00:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Pemex reports Mexico's July oil output fell 7.8% y/y to 2.56 mbd, while Cantrell – eighth largest oilfield ever discovered – dropped to 588,210 barrels a day, down 41% from a year before. Mexican production has fallen every month since July 2006. Exports to the US are down 33% y/y. This is peak oil on steroids.
mcgowanjm
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2455
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 23:06:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')hort you still haven't answered my question: who other than you, JD, Oily, and Michael Lynch ($34 jerkin-yergin does not count) still believes peak oil is not here? And that the consequences will not be dire?


I asked first.

But to be polite, and for those with short memories, I participated in the 2005 peak oil thread and am perfectly happy to accept the information provided which assigned 2005 as the peak oil year. I certainly can't refute it with any information of my own, so I am forced to accept the evidence at hand. And the consequences of dropping real and nominal gasoline prices were certainly dire. :o

Now, in case you didn't actually read the Lynch article prior to casting rotten fruit at it, let me categorize his 3 points.

1) The discovery trend claim is bogus because it does not include revisions over time of field size estimates.
2) Modern technology is not accelerating field declines through "super straw" technology and whatnot.
3) There is quite a bit more recoverable oil than the 2 triliion barrels claimed by peakers.

#3 strikes me as completely self evident based on cumulative human production of oil to date, plus current reserve estimates which top the 2 trillion mark easily, let alone the trillions because of #2 referenced by Saleri in a JPT article I referenced in another thread.

But feel free to pick your favorite, you must have one.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests

cron