[newman1979]

The discussion is good for all of us. First, Europe and Japan has been on a oil diet for 40 years. The problem is that with all the massive investment in efficiency,high oil taxes, nuclear etc. they still need a huge quantity of imported oil for their societies. If it has taken Europe 40 years to reach this result, when should we start to do what Europe and Japan have done? Growth in oil producing countries some other countries is largely based on subsidizing domestic oil. So we have different parts of the world taking contradicting courses towards oil usage. Cheery picking is a universal sport in this type of environment, which is why I try to rely principally on world data for demand data as flawed as it probably is. Supply is the sum of parts that are easier to discuss on a regional basis.
Another part of this discussion should be "What is the implication if each side of the debate is wrong?" And in this regard, shouldn't a discussion about "minimizing maximum loss" be included under various scenarios.

[kiwichick]

dude;notice how your graph has "double tops"

looks like only germany had a higher peak than
the early 70's

[kiwichick]

sorry italy did too
and then very flat

[Pops]

OK I've split off the discussion of multiple peaks to here,
http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/ ... 55372.html

Lets try to keep this thread a little more on the line of what next or however newman wants to go.

[Pops]

I tend to think we are still too close to say with any confidence that we are at the top. Especially since the highest price and the highest production month was last year.

But that guess just came straight out of my ear. What I'd like to see is no clear peak, the world just bumping up against the ceiling until we get the hint, and maybe scrape along till the population goes over the top.

Hey, a guy can wish can't he?

I know, wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which fills faster...

[Graeme]

Renewable energy market to grow 25% annually through 2030

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he alternative energy sector is expected to grow 25% annually and account for almost 70% of the global energy market through 2030.

The sector's current $150bn share of the estimated $800bn worldwide energy infrastructure will rise by then to around $600bn.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')hence my graph of change in oil consumption divided by region, which shows that increase in demand proceeds apace, regardless of changes in individual countries.

[Graeme]

The New Age Of Natural Gas: New Record High Production In March For The World’s #1 Producer

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy Information Administration released new data yesterday showing that natural gas production in the U.S. reached an all-time historical monthly high in March of 2.313 trillion cubic feet, breaking the previous record of 2.28 trillion cubic feet set in March of last year by almost 33 billion cubic feet (see graph).

As I have reported previously, the U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of natural gas, having surpassed Russia’s production last year to become the new “Saudi Arabia of natural gas.” It’s all because of a breakthrough in drilling technology, involving the use of three-dimensional seismic imaging and hydraulic fracturing of shale rock, so that huge amounts of natural gas are being produced in New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Louisiana and other states. In 2000, shale gas accounted for only about 1% of our natural gas supply, but now about 20% of gas comes from advanced shale drilling, and has helped boost production to record high levels.

The abundance of natural gas in the U.S. was completely unexpected as recently as seven years ago when Alan Greenspan was worried in 2003 that shortages of natural gas would hurt the U.S. economy. We’re in a new age of natural gas, and it’s going to be a real game-changer.

[PeakOiler]

Can anyone explain why the EIA doesn't show the US demand or "days of supply" data anymore at this web page: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html ?

[Graeme]

U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. natural gas reserves increased by the most in history last year, and crude reserves also rose, as companies drilled frantically into shale rock formations with new technology, the Energy Information Administration said in an annual report on Tuesday.

U.S. net proved natural gas reserves rose 11 percent, or 28.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf), in 2009 to total 284 tcf, underscoring the dramatic impact that new gas pumped from shale rock formations is having on world energy supply.

Louisiana, whose statewide reserves grew quickest, saw its economically viable gas reserves surge by 77 percent, or 9.2 tcf, led by developments in its Haynesville Shale.

U.S. net proved crude oil reserves rose 9 percent, or 1.8 billion barrels, to 22.3 billion barrels in 2009. Texas saw its proved oil volumes rise most, by 529 million barrels, or 11 percent.

North Dakota, home of the oil-rich Bakken Shale formation, saw its reserves jump by a whopping 83 percent, or 481 million barrels.

"These increases demonstrate the possibility of an expanding role for domestic natural gas and crude oil in meeting both current and projected U.S. energy demands," EIA researchers said in their report.

[americandream]

In breaking news, Saudi Arabia was declared another state of the US.

[Serial_Worrier]

So it just postpones the reckoning a few more years. Doom!

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'S')o it just postpones the reckoning a few more years. Doom!

[Maddog78]

Ha, so roccman or whatever his name was should get ready to head to the bunker, AGAIN?

He must have worn a nice path in and out of that bunker the last two years.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')U.S. net proved crude oil reserves rose 9 percent, or 1.8 billion barrels, to 22.3 billion barrels in 2009. Texas saw its proved oil volumes rise most, by 529 million barrels, or 11 percent.

[vtsnowedin]

22 billion barrels and we use 20 million barrels a day!!! Works out to just three years and change. 2014 ought to be a real interesting year any way you look at it.

[ian807]

We'll have quite a long period of relatively scarce and expensive oil, but we'll have it.

This is a money problem long before it's a real supply crunch. The effect of depleting conventional oil is to make liquid fuel, fertilizer and chemical feedstock prices rise. That'll continue for a long time, decreasing oil use and suppressing economic activity as higher oil prices work their way down the value chain into all products. We all effectively get poorer. Quite a bit poorer, most likely. Adding unconventional oil to the mix won't change that. Since oil itself is necessary to get more oil, I expect you'll see a lot of unconventional oil suddenly become uneconomical to produce.

I doubt, however, that bunkers will be necessary anytime soon. If they are, it probably won't be directly related to oil supplies.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'S')o it just postpones the reckoning a few more years. Doom!

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '2')2 billion barrels and we use 20 million barrels a day!!! Works out to just three years and change. 2014 ought to be a real interesting year any way you look at it.