by kjmclark » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 20:23:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S health officials said Tuesday they expect a large shortfall in swine flu vaccines, with only 45 million doses due to be ready in time for the start of a vaccination program mid-October.
AFP at Yahoo.If you work that out, they expect to fully immunize the 160 million high-risk (of death or serious illness) people by about mid January. That's 45 million initial doses in mid-October, two doses per person, 20 million more doses per week. The two doses per person is still what they expect will be needed since this virus is so novel.
They expect about 40% of the population to become sick in the first season and about 40% of the workforce to be out at some point either sick or taking care of someone who is sick.
The only problem is that in the past flu pandemics, the worst of it was during mid-September to mid-December. So we get a month with kids in school but with no vaccinations. Oh, and they recently said that they want to avoid closing schools unless there are too few kids coming to bother. Stupidest thing I've heard in a long time. I'm very tempted to keep our kids at home and homeschool them for a few months.
I just finished John Barry's "The Great Influenza." Here's my worst-case prediction: by mid-October, when they start immunizing healthcare workers, we'll have 60% or so of hospital beds full, and all respirators in use. A month later, we'll have 110% of hospital beds full, and they will be turning people away. Just about every school in the country will have closed for some period of time. The third quarter GDP will show growth, but the fourth quarter will show a crushing return to recession. Mostly because we're too dumb to learn from the past.