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Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby Maddog78 » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 09:57:13

You're awesome, zeke.
You should go over to that Gun forum and help vision master put RGR in his place.

http://www.sksboards.com/smf/index.php?topic=58667.0
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 11:27:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'Y')ou're awesome, zeke.
You should go over to that Gun forum and help vision master put RGR in his place.

http://www.sksboards.com/smf/index.php?topic=58667.0



yeah..just what I need...to swap wits with gun-lappers.

what little I read there seems wierd coming from gun kooks. a few years ago when I was researching alternative energy, the websites which contained the most extensive, hard-core information about what to buy, how to set up, maintain and use a solar panel rig or a windmill, were the "survivalist" websites.

these are the folks whose sites contain bargeloads of anti-gummint spew..how gummint is steppin' on yer neck and blah-blah-blah.

in their mythology, guns seem to be viewed as the god-sanctioned remedy. scary folks.

I know that government isn't perfect and often over-steps, but it's just plain daffy to reach out to violence as the cure.


:roll:

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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby Pops » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 11:56:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', ' ')the websites which contained the most extensive, hard-core information about what to buy, how to set up, maintain and use a solar panel rig or a windmill, were the "survivalist" websites.


Yep, that's ["survivalist" sites] are one of the first places online where I read about PO when everyone else was worried about Y2k.

I didn't fit in but I didn't write off the facts either.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:01:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', ' ')the websites which contained the most extensive, hard-core information about what to buy, how to set up, maintain and use a solar panel rig or a windmill, were the "survivalist" websites.


Yep, that's ["survivalist" sites] are one of the first places online where I read about PO when everyone else was worried about Y2k.

I didn't fit in but I didn't write off the facts either.



right. and as you noticed too, those guys don't horse around, simply dipping into alternative with something anemic like an iPod charger.

These guys have it all wired. They more than cover their electricity diet, and often produce surplus. Their housing structure itself is designed not to squander whatever energy heats or maintains it. Orientation toward the sun is key. The materials and finishes are durable, and designed to be owner-fixed and maintained.

They are also realistic in that they understand you won't always HAVE sunlight, or wind, or both, so you need to adjust your usage needs to reflect reality.

that's something the hipsters, progressives, cornucopians and others need to grasp: that we have to adjust how we live.

but..in a culture of perceived infinite plenty, that's like asking somebody to drink out of the toilet bowl.


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Last edited by zeke on Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:04:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:13:37

duplicate post
Last edited by zeke on Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:15:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:13:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'O')K..energy crisis solved...let's wire up short on brains's typing fingers to some kind of generator, his mouth to a hot air duct.

jeebus.


z
I'm back after a local doom-initiated network collapse up here in Humboldt. The internet was down most of the evening. Zombies must have chewed through the underground cables--searching for dead gophers?

Short does go on. Given my proclivity for general, all-around disbelief, I sometimes wonder if others are taken in by Short's verbosity. Did he say anything in his last response to me? Or was it all prettily-formatted mind dribble?



from what I read of his long-winded pecking, it was typical dribble.

his "position" seems to be sculpted from the same intellectual material as the average snotty teenager's rhetorical style.

I think that some ppl prbly ARE taken in by his excreta, mainly because it's far more pleasant to hear and read that all this peak oil bidness is nonsense, and that we can keep right on doing what we've always done, and at an ever-increasing rate, than it is to hear that we need to grow up fast and change our wasteful ways.

like you and others here, I've been trying to have an earnest peak oil discussion with people in my life for years. and the only counter-argument anyone really mounts is that there's plenty; the evidence for which is that the lights are on and cars are driving right now.

there's other stuff mixed in, like anger, and "you just want people to live in the woods and eat bugs" and other crap like that..strawman arguments, childish bargaining and mud-throwing. like the 7 stages of grief.

maybe there are 8 stages, one being "hyper-tantrum hissy fits."

and it all comes down to what people require as "proof." if cars are out there running right now, that means we have an infinite supply of oil. This in the "minds" of cornies.

Other "proof" rests on the idea that, since we can't walk into the middle of Ghawar with a big giant dipstick and shove that puppy deep into the well to see how much is there, then that is conclusive evidence that there is a 1000-year supply, simply because you can't prove that there is not.

some clowns on another forum I visit have managed to convince themselves and others that any oil shortage was manufactured by goldman sachs. There really IS plenty out there, it's just that last year's speculation drove up the price. Now there's a glut with too-little storage capacity and consumer demand to slurp it all up.

Never mind that 30 million people are out of work and that 1/2 million more each month join them, and that those out-of-workers are consuming much less than they were.

one of those convenient omissions.


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Last edited by zeke on Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:21:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 12:25:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'z')eke, it's always good hearing the truth. Like a single silver jewel slipping through a leak in the slop bucket of life :shock:



yeah..sometimes it's cold comfort, too. I would like the truth to include reports of people snapping out of it, and working in earnest for change...to re-arrange how we do things, to demand mass transit, to start growing their own vegetable gardens, to be happy with the consumer toys they have right now without having to buy new every month.

I'd be happy if "the truth" included accelerated programs to help communities and private individuals put up solar and wind...hot-water collectors...

re-usable containers instead of disposible plastic bags and "clamshell" packaging.

too many good ideas in this culture live out their entire lives on a cocktail napkin. We need more that become actual daily practice.


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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby AirlinePilot » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 14:18:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 't')hat's something the hipsters, progressives, cornucopians and others need to grasp: that we have to adjust how we live.

but..in a culture of perceived infinite plenty, that's like asking somebody to drink out of the toilet bowl.



Bingo! When the time comes the fight to maintain our current happy motoring, China mart, Suburban paradigm will be mighty. Folks dont want to stare at reality, they only want and need to hold on to what we have. I see places like this site as a an awakening. Awakening to a new reality and the ability to embrace it and move forward. Unfortunately I think the timing is bad. We are just too little too late. It will not end well.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 19:44:26

yeah, it probably won't end well...I think you nailed that.

but, humanity will likely get a reality spanking the likes of which has never been seen or felt in the history of brats and butts.

a spanking so bad and so hard and so long the dead will arise from their graves, rubbing their own ghost bums.

and there'll be LOTS of crying whimpering bleating, cursing whining and tantrums.

but if the spanking is hard enough, some will emerge disabused of the stupid notions like the ones obsessively defended by the cornies.

then they'll look back and think; "what the @%!$# were we thinking??"

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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby shortonsense » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 20:26:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Let's go to it Short? Auntie asked you to submit support for your claims that these scientists have been discredited. Let's see some references.


I have already listed the necessary qualifications for me to have a conversation with someone where I will need to expend effort, and can plan on learning something for my effort.

You do not qualify.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 20:35:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Let's go to it Short? Auntie asked you to submit support for your claims that these scientists have been discredited. Let's see some references.


I have already listed the necessary qualifications for me to have a conversation with someone where I will need to expend effort, and can plan on learning something for my effort.

You do not qualify.



as I said, sculpted from the same intellectual material as the average snotty teenager's rhetorical style.

take a hand full of pimples, a hand full of snot, throw in some wacky hormones and a case of jolt cola.

stir vigorously.

serve chilled.


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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby rangerone314 » Thu 06 Aug 2009, 14:40:24

I would tend to think that eventually EROEI arguments will prove to me a moot issue...

Money is a medium of exchange... oil provides a fairly cheap source of energy...

What happens to the price of oil BEFORE you ever get to EROEI of 1:1?

Considering there are monetary expenditures such as labor, benefits, administrative expenses, I would suspect the cost of extracting oil would exceed what you could sell it for...

There is a very good reason why you haven't seen any oil projects evaluated in terms of EROEI... because it is not a factor yet... only the $ bottom line to stockholders.

EROEI is a bit high-concept for a company... I see it more as a systemic issue; money is company specific and it seems like big oil Exxon, etc are scaling back... not attempting a massive expansion...

EROEI will eventually be reflected in the cost of doing business (dollar-valued medium of exchange) as it gets closer to 1-1...
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby MattS » Thu 06 Aug 2009, 20:23:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') would tend to think that eventually EROEI arguments will prove to me a moot issue...


I'm guessing that some believe this has already happened. Its not like a single example of the claimed "EROEI as presentation topic at an oil company decision meeting" example has yet been provided.
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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby zeke » Thu 06 Aug 2009, 20:34:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') would tend to think that eventually EROEI arguments will prove to me a moot issue...

Money is a medium of exchange... oil provides a fairly cheap source of energy...



in the "modern" economy, one can say that oil and money are the same thing. almost nothing we do happens without oil, which is one of the focal points of this forum.

EROEI stands for Energy Returned On Energy Invested.

Notice that there is no mention of "money" in that.

EROEI is in fact vastly more significant than whatever price of this or that might be, because it basically says that you will only spend energy on an energy project or technology if you get MORE than you put in.

It's just as simple as could possibly be. the bare-knuckle reality that life teaches all organisms.

You don't spend what you have knowing that the result will be a draining of what you have.

that's why, for example, bears and other creatures hybernate.

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Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Postby rangerone314 » Fri 07 Aug 2009, 14:14:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') would tend to think that eventually EROEI arguments will prove to me a moot issue...

Money is a medium of exchange... oil provides a fairly cheap source of energy...



in the "modern" economy, one can say that oil and money are the same thing. almost nothing we do happens without oil, which is one of the focal points of this forum.

EROEI stands for Energy Returned On Energy Invested.

Notice that there is no mention of "money" in that.

EROEI is in fact vastly more significant than whatever price of this or that might be, because it basically says that you will only spend energy on an energy project or technology if you get MORE than you put in.

It's just as simple as could possibly be. the bare-knuckle reality that life teaches all organisms.

You don't spend what you have knowing that the result will be a draining of what you have.

that's why, for example, bears and other creatures hybernate.

z


True, but the point I was getting at is that EROEI will not be used by companies since they have costs of producing energy that go BEYOND the energy used to extract it.

In otherwords simplistically:

Profit = EnergyReturned X EnergyPrice - EnergyInvested X EnergyPrice - OtherCosts (Administrative Costs, etc)

Profit essentially includes EnergyReturned-EnergyInvested already factored in dollar terms, and because there are other costs in dollar terms also being subtracted... the profit ceiling will be hit sooner than the EROEI ceiling.

Obviously 1.0 EROEI is losing profit. I'm not sure how big in the mix "Other Costs" are. The large "Other Costs" are, the large the EROEI has to be to eek out a dollar profit of the net difference. Also consider in the capitalism system, if there is more money to be made selling sock puppets, then capital will shift from oil to sock puppets.

Of course if energy costs go up because production is down, I'm not sure exactly what industry the capital would shift to.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

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