I will say bluntly here that anyone who thinks the effect of PO is lower oil prices will be proven totally wrong. In the post-peak world, there is less oil, and therefore oil must get more expensive relative to most everything else.
Granted there can be economic collapses and 'panics", and we may well have another one this year. It could push the price of oil down temporarily, but the next panic could very well push the price up.
However we are mostly talking about the long term, and in the long term - even adjusted by the CPI - oil will be going up.
PeakOil is You
$20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut
Re: $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut
by DantesPeak » Thu 16 Jul 2009, 23:41:41
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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DantesPeak - Expert
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Re: $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut
by notill » Thu 16 Jul 2009, 23:55:00
Devastating glut?
100 million barrels, compared to current usage of 84 million per day, amounts to a 28.5 hour supply.
At peak usage of 87 mbpd day, that amounts to a 27.5 hour supply.
100 million barrels, compared to current usage of 84 million per day, amounts to a 28.5 hour supply.
At peak usage of 87 mbpd day, that amounts to a 27.5 hour supply.
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Re: $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut
by gnm » Fri 17 Jul 2009, 00:00:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('notill', 'D')evastating glut?
100 million barrels, compared to current usage of 84 million per day, amounts to a 28.5 hour supply.
At peak usage of 87 mbpd day, that amounts to a 27.5 hour supply.
100 million barrels, compared to current usage of 84 million per day, amounts to a 28.5 hour supply.
At peak usage of 87 mbpd day, that amounts to a 27.5 hour supply.
Ding Ding Ding! Well said Mr. Tar sands! "gluts" can disappear REALLY FAST. Once you burn it you can't get it back!
-G
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Re: $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut
by Lokutus » Fri 17 Jul 2009, 00:30:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'S')tuck in you prior posts:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, for every person telling me PO is real there are 100 telling me not to be a "chicken little" and to just "Don't worry, be happy."
link Don't worry, I'm not going to tell everyone you used to believe in the abiotic oil theory.I never believed in abiotic oil. son. Learn to read. Why resort to ad hominem attack so quickly?
What will arrive first? Peak Oil or the Second Coming? My money is now on the latter.
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Re: $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut
by AgentR » Fri 17 Jul 2009, 00:40:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') will say bluntly here that anyone who thinks the effect of PO is lower oil prices will be proven totally wrong. In the post-peak world, there is less oil, and therefore oil must get more expensive relative too most everything else.
I wouldn't mind being proven wrong; but so far, no one's done it.
If there is at some future point, only 40 mbpd production, but the maximum instantaneous economic use at that point is 20 mbpd; the price is gonna be squat. The price reinforces the falling production level. The price does not motivate long term increases in production because the maximum cap in production is simply too low; the price spikes to ridiculous levels before anyone can even warm up a furnace; another million lose their jobs; another giant swath of the economy is destroyed; and now can manage to put into service 19.5 mbpd.
Just because someone can buy 10 of something for $5; does not imply that one can buy 100 of that something for $50. If there is 20 of the something, and a marketable use for 50, and a background level use for 10; that additional marketable use will NEVER be realized, no matter how low the price is for the 10.
You could easily see weird things like $20 bbl oil, and $4 / gallon gasoline. The further down the chain we get in total available production, the harsher the effects of jitter will become. What was once a 1-2% over or under, becomes greatly magnified; miss high or low by a million when production is 100 mbpd; annoying, but not ridiculously distorting. Miss by a milllion when total production is 20 mbpd; and you've just created rocket and brick wall iteration #55.
Again, my point isn't that price WILL be low; but rather, to assume that price tells us anything useful is an illusion. What counts is how much energy is input into the production of tangible, marketable good, as this falls, so does our modern way of life.
edit: two "to"s in need of being "too"s. Ah well.
Last edited by AgentR on Fri 17 Jul 2009, 08:21:35, edited 1 time in total.
Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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