by TheDude » Mon 06 Jul 2009, 03:32:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'P')lease, it wasn't 18 months ago that everyone on here was predicting 250 gas or more by this date. Of course nobody knows, it is like a big game of Russian roulette. But instead of 1 bullet in the revolver there are 7 and everyone is praying to get the empty chamber.
How many chambers are there in this gun, though?

A distinction should be made about how long a time frame this "volatility" is operating over, too. Day to day the price has become more volatile in the last decade:

Whereas on a secular scale the current price looks to be simply regaining a long term trend it was already following. The price spike around Aug '90, after the invasion of Kuwait, suggests to me that diurnal volatility is simply something to expect when the price exceeds a certain ratio of GDP, as Deffeyes charted out; or that with a larger price/bbl commensurately larger swings are to be expected.
Whiners. A 2009 average price still indicates a sharper decline than 1981:
