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Spreading World Food Abundance

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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 00:22:26

mmm.... So you're implying that 75% of the world's population are going to disappear.

n theres me thinking you disagreed with Monte. 8O
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 00:38:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'm')mm.... So you're implying that 75% of the world's population are going to disappear.

n theres me thinking you disagreed with Monte. 8O

Not only is 75% of the world's population going to disappear, 100% of the world's population is eventually going to disappear.

Of course, I do not believe humans will decline in population due to food shortages, but I do recognize the inevitability of human population decline (and eventual extinction).

Nothing lasts forever. Not humans. Not even this.
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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 00:47:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Not only is 75% of the world's population going to disappear, 100% of the world's population is eventually going to disappear.


Just conveniently far enough in the future to discount it, right? Let the next generation or two deal with the mess we leave them.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 01:32:06

Your graph would indicate word population levels to fall by 75% in a very short period of time.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'N')ot only is 75% of the world's population going to disappear, 100% of the world's population is eventually going to disappear.
Of course, I do not believe humans will decline in population due to food shortages, but I do recognize the inevitability of human population decline (and eventual extinction).
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 01:35:09

and then there is this potential famine...

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg1 ... light.html

I remember reading about a similar problem with rice. Scientists had to screen >100000 strains to find a few with some resistance. The ones that had it were nearly lost forever because of natural habitat loss. I think this could be eventually be the "meteor" that rids the earth of us "dinosaurs"

Another very real problem is the loss of expertise in plant science as more old school biologists die or retire. They may be the only ones in their field that can solve the problems that will inevitably occur.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 11:30:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')As long as they can drive their fat asses to Marie Callenders they don't give a rat's ass about hungry people today.

It is you who doesn't give a rat's ass about hungry people today. All you do is keep telling us our food production system is unsustainable, the EROEI of fossil fuel production is going down, and blah blah blah. If you actually cared about feeding all these people, you would be cheering on all those shale natural gas plays, you would be excited about that deepwater Brazilian oil, you would be hoping and praying they perfect nuclear fusion, and you would be a big fan of genetically engineered crops. But in poo-pooing all these things you're telling us you really don't want them all to happen and would just as well see all those people die of starvation.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby eXpat » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 12:20:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')As long as they can drive their fat asses to Marie Callenders they don't give a rat's ass about hungry people today.

It is you who doesn't give a rat's ass about hungry people today. All you do is keep telling us our food production system is unsustainable, the EROEI of fossil fuel production is going down, and blah blah blah. If you actually cared about feeding all these people, you would be cheering on all those shale natural gas plays, you would be excited about that deepwater Brazilian oil, you would be hoping and praying they perfect nuclear fusion, and you would be a big fan of genetically engineered crops. But in poo-pooing all these things you're telling us you really don't want them all to happen and would just as well see all those people die of starvation.

On the contrary, by acknowledging reality, by understanding that we are in an unsustainable system that is about to crash or is crasing already, we can move on, can try to implement solutions (albeit on a limited scale). To believe that something will succor us so we can keep with our way of life is part of the problem.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 12:30:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')peaking of India and agriculture, looks like India's gonna have another bumper wheat crop. Funny how these doomsday theories just never seem to come true :razz: LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]USDA revises India’s March wheat output
WASHINGTON : The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised India's wheat output slightly upward at 78.6 million tones in March from 78.4 million tones in February. --snip--
The estimate for global wheat production has also been raised by 1.6 million tunes to a record 684.4 million tones during marketing year 2008-09, it said. The marketing period of wheat varies from country to country.

What is India going to do when the Ug99 wheat rust strain reaches them? And this from 2008: link

Ug99 deveastates wheat crops.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 12:37:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')But in poo-pooing all these things you're telling us you really don't want them all to happen and would just as well see all those people die of starvation.


If we could wean ourselves off of fossil fuels and get population under control I would root for shale gas etc... as a temporary stopgap. You have to look at the bigger picture. Praying for more and more of the same and continuing to not adapt whenever doom is temporarily forestalled is a dead end.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Specop_007 » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 13:09:26

Just so we're all clear, I dont give a rats ass about the worlds hungry. I just wanted to throw that out there.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 13:41:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'J')ust so we're all clear, I dont give a rats ass about the worlds hungry. I just wanted to throw that out there.

LOL! At least you're honest...

I actually DO give a rats ass about the world's hungry but not nearly as much as I care about the future of my own family and the fact that I don't want them to ever BECOME part of the world's hungry.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 15:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'O')n the contrary, by acknowledging reality, by understanding that we are in an unsustainable system that is about to crash or is crasing already, we can move on, can try to implement solutions (albeit on a limited scale). To believe that something will succor us so we can keep with our way of life is part of the problem.

If the system is about to crash or is already crashing, why do you want to try to stop it? "Implementing solutions" is the thing that will let the system carry on. "Not implementing solutions" will let the system crash. Do you want the system to crash? If you believe it is unsustainable, then you should want it to crash, and the worst thing you could possibly to is to try to keep it from crashing by "implementing solutions." Imagine trying to get an over-population of lemmings to eat less, thus making their situation more "sustainable." What will that accomplish? It might keep their population from crashing. But if their populations are unsustainable, then you should want it to crash, and you are actually doing a disservice by trying to make it more sustainable. The best thing to do would be to do nothing, and let the population crash, as it should.

On the other hand, if the system isn't anywhere near any "crashing" points, you are doing little more than screaming "the sky is falling." Of course you disagree, but it is obvious to me this is what you are doing.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 01 Jul 2009, 15:50:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')But in poo-pooing all these things you're telling us you really don't want them all to happen and would just as well see all those people die of starvation.


If we could wean ourselves off of fossil fuels and get population under control I would root for shale gas etc... as a temporary stopgap. You have to look at the bigger picture. Praying for more and more of the same and continuing to not adapt whenever doom is temporarily forestalled is a dead end.

What if this "temporary stopgap" is good for 100 years? 500 years? 3000 years? - even if we don't do anything more about population than we already are? The future is too uncertain to get people to plan for much more than 50 years ahead, let alone 100 years or 3000 years. If something is "unsustainable" or is becoming increasingly scarce, it is more practical to let people adjust to it as the effects of this unsustainablilty or scarcity are manifested in their daily lives. Trying to be the crystal ball-gazer and tell everyone that what they're doing cannot last another 300 years isn't going to work because no one can be certain of anything that will happen 300 years from now.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby ForlornHope » Thu 02 Jul 2009, 09:56:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', ' ')Not sure that purposefully manipulating the price of food is the answer, rather a dismantling of the globalist trade system and the reinstitution of those evil evil "trade barriers" that protect domestic industries, including agriculture.
.


Agreed. This is what will help the 75% poor farmers alluded to. Globalization, one of the biggest causes of poverty, greater inequality, and misery in the world. When we arrive hence further down the slope of the PO curve, I feel(and hope) globalization may go the way of the Dodo.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Homesteader » Thu 02 Jul 2009, 10:49:34

Friday, May 29, 2009
Terrible Outlook For 2009 Global Wheat Output

snip: Argentine Soybean Crop Revised Down Again, Wheat Acreage Seen 20 Pct lower

In what is becoming a familiar weekly ritual the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has revised down its 2009 soybean crop estimate for Argentina to 32.0 MMT from 32.2 MMT a week earlier.

That's a reduction of 30.7% on last year and 36% down on the 50 MMT originally hoped for this season.

Even so there could still be more downward revisions to come yet. The Argentine Rural Confederation, or CRA, last week estimated production at just 30.5 MMT, 34% down on last season.

snip:

1) Romania = output wheat down -30%

2) Ukraine = output wheat down -27%

3) Hungary = output wheat down -28.5%

4) Czech = output wheat down -20%

5) Bulgaria = output wheat down -30%

6) Poland = output wheat down -10%

7) Spain = output wheat down -42%

8) Australia = output down -10-35%

9) Argentina = output down -34%

10) China = output down -20% or more

11) US = output down -20% or more

12) Canada = output down -12%

13) Russia = output wheat down -21.5%


Conclusion: Nothing has changed. Estimates for agricultural production are being continuously downgraded every month. Droughts, under planting, and lack of credit have devastated global agricultural output. The world is still facing food shortages in 2009.

Link: http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/05/t ... -weat.html
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 04 Jul 2009, 04:34:51

I'm still trying to clarify what you were trying to say by posting this graph.

You implication is that the price of texas crude was unsustainable and led to a massive drop, and that population levels are also unsustainable and will massively fall. Is this what you are trying to say?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A')s Monte says, nature bats last. This chart ain't sustainable.

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Neither was this one. :lol:

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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 05 Jul 2009, 20:00:22

Quinny I already answered your question at the bottom of page 4. If you don't get it by now, then too bad.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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