[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ERA Official Acknowledges “Peak Oil is Here”
By admin • on June 9, 2009


Speaking at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC on 8 June, CERA Global Oil Group Managing Director Jim Burkhard began and ended his talk by stating that “CERA acknowledges that peak oil is here, you heard it from a CERA person.”

Mr. Burkhard spoke at a CSIS session on “Transforming the Transportation Sector: Energy Security, Climate Change and Transportation”.

During his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA’s interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors.

ASPO-USA Advisory Board member Scott Pugh was present and provided this report.

Mr. Burkhard’s presentation should be available soon under “Events” at:

http://www.csis.org/researchfocus/energy/

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')But still maintaining a kind of blur around peak demand or peak supply ...

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')But still maintaining a kind of blur around peak demand or peak supply ...

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...

[AirlinePilot]

Its just a CERA dolt using the term incorrectly, even though its not the way we use it here by definition, my hunch is he will be right.

It does not matter what reason is pointed to and I'd be really wary of anyone calling a US demand peak yet. I agree we will get to that point, but the reason they are saying this is because like everyone else calling "green shoots" or "recession over" they got it wrong. No weight given to the historic nature of the economic downturn we are currently in. This is not a normal recession. If and when we recover from this malaise I can assure you demand will rise. Thats when CERA and everyone else will get to see what the real problems are due to peaking world oil production.

[Tyler_JC]

So CERA has decided to completely ignore graphs like that one?

Are they idiots or liars?

[TheDude]

They're idioars who liot.

Tata Nano: 200,000 Orders and a Waiting List Through 2011 - Auto Observer



Duh...think I'll just stop driving on a whim...no reason...don't know why...duh...

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA’s interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors.

[Tyler_JC]

OilFinder2,

Are you suggesting that the decline in US gasoline demand will not be made up for by increased demand from the developing world?

[copious.abundance]

I was responding to the specific statements made by the CERA person.

As for the developing world, they too, do not need to consume increasing amounts of oil in order to support their growth. In particular I've been reporting here how India is about to transition to a natural gas-based economy (though no one but me seems to be paying attention), I've also reported the same thing here regarding Pakistan (who is way ahead of anyone else in that regard), and the same thing here for Argentina. And even China is starting to make baby steps towards the same. A very large % of vehicles in Brazil run on ethanol and they too, have 1 million natural gas vehicles. My own opinion is that the developing-nations-will-consume-way-more-oil argument is way overblown. Of course they'll consume *some* more, but there's plenty of evidence many developing nations are, in fact, switching to alternatives (mostly NG). Couple that with flat or declining demand in the developed world, and fears about oil shortages brought about by developed nation growth are overblown IMO.

Here's one more example out today:
>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]General Motors launches LPG run Chevrolet Spark in Mumbai
10 Jun 2009, 1313 hrs IST, AGENCIES

MUMBAI: General Motors India launched the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) version of its popular small car Chevrolet Spark here on Tuesday.

The LPG version is GM India's first clean-burning liquefied natural gas car in India, built at company's plant at Talegaon in Maharashtra.

Apart from the eco-friendly aspects on account of lesser emission, the LPG version of the Spark is set to offer a low running cost while retaining its inherent features of well-equipped small hatchback.

"Here in India it's been the growth for Chevrolet. Last year we sold 32,000 Sparks. We are very pleased to bring this version of the Spark, which is the LPG version. So we step into alternative fuels. The great thing about this is that it's a modern technology. It's a direct injection into the cylinder which gives the consumer a really comfortable ride," Karl Slym, President and Managing Director, General Motors India.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Another one, from last year. This time, Indonesia.

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]JK to speed up oil-to-gas conversion in land transportation
Sunday, July 13, 2008 01:27 WIB | Economic & Business

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The Indonesian government is to speed up implementation of its program to substitute gas for fuel oil in motor vehicles, Vice President Jusuf Kalla said.

Speaking at the commissioning of Indonesia`s first Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) filling station at Cikarang, east of Jakarta, on Saturday, he said the government would take concrete steps, including issuance of regulations, to accelerate the oil-to-gas conversion process for automotive transport.

"Speeding up the program is very important because the use of gas will economically be more advantageous as it is more efficient, more friendly to the environment, and reduce our need for fuel oils," he said.

He said the oil-to-gas converson program for motor vehicles would be carried out in the same way as the current drive to replace kerosene by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for households.

[...]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'M')y own opinion is that the developing-nations-will-consume-way-more-oil argument is way overblown.

[copious.abundance]

As if I needed yet another example, in addition to Pakistan, India, Brazil and Argentina doing large-scale conversions of vehicles to NG, we also have Thailand doing the same.

>>> Thais Lead Drive to Natural-Gas Cars <<<

At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see large-scale gluts of oil in about ten years.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ERA Global Oil Group Managing Director Jim Burkhard is certainly among those who see it as evidence of “peak oil” having arrived. During a recent presentation Burkhard explained how his interpretation is based on the fact that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years.

@TheDude:

The question was:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'O')ilFinder2,

Are you suggesting that the decline in US gasoline demand will not be made up for by increased demand from the developing world?

[TheDude]

Prominent CERA official: “Peak Oil theory is garbage”

CERA : “ Peak Oil is Here”

Must be a Waste Management strike going on in Cambridge.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')s for India, I don't know what your definition of "steep" is, but since you like to scoff at itty-bitty oil consumption increases, over the past 3 years liquids consumption in India has risen by a whopping 350K bpd. That's about 2/3 the production of Equador. Gee, wow we must be doomed.

[energyhoggin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '
')Yeah, as if peak (singular) demand could mean anything ...