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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby gnm » Thu 21 May 2009, 05:59:17

Most people are given incentives (employer matching etc) to "invest" via a 401k and don't have a lot of leeway within that (managed funds) - Few have a lot of extra beyond that to "play" with...

Hmmmm - US "AAA" indeed?
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1612964
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. dollar's day of reckoning may be inching closer as its status as a safe-haven currency fades with every uptick in stocks and commodities and its potential risks - debt and inflation - are brought under a harsher spotlight


-G
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 21 May 2009, 08:30:08

from that same article;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Laidi said economic recovery would weigh on the greenback as real demand for commodities, coupled with improved risk appetite, caused investors to seek higher yields in emerging markets and commodity currencies. This would draw investment away from the U.S. dollar, which was dragged down by growing debt and the risk quantitative easing would eventually spark a surge in inflation.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Thu 21 May 2009, 12:02:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'M')ost people are given incentives (employer matching etc) to "invest" via a 401k and don't have a lot of leeway within that (managed funds) - Few have a lot of extra beyond that to "play" with...
-G


I guess I somewhat agree.

Most 401k accounts I have seen allow participants to choose from several different funds, money market or cash equivalent, or buy individual stocks. They obviously charge commsions for trades and funds have expense ratios.

I choose cash with no expense ratio and currently yielding 5.25% interest and then I also choose the S&P 500 fund due to its broad US diversification and its low expense ratio. Everyone once in a while I will move money into an International Fund but it does have a higher expense ratio. I DO NOT trade in my retirement account. I cannot risk losing that money.

To my knowledge no 401k accounts require employees to participate. So if they wanted to they could easily open a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA. I suggest the ROTH since you won't have to pay taxes on the returns and you can withdraw the principal anytime before you retire.

Many 401k providers do match a small percentage. That is FREE money as long as you are vested.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby gnm » Thu 21 May 2009, 12:12:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I') DO NOT trade in my retirement account. I cannot risk losing that money.

To my knowledge no 401k accounts require employees to participate. So if they wanted to they could easily open a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA. I suggest the ROTH since you won't have to pay taxes on the returns and you can withdraw the principal anytime before you retire.

Many 401k providers do match a small percentage. That is FREE money as long as you are vested.


Given the hijinx the government and banks have been pulling I believe you are already risking losing that money... :evil:

Yes but most will choose to participate to take advantage of the "matching". Unfortunately I know a lot of folks who are dealing with outrageous medical bills given changes in coverage by employers and are not able to even participate in the 401 (living hand to mouth)..

-G
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 21 May 2009, 14:35:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'f')rom that same article;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Laidi said economic recovery would weigh on the greenback as real demand for commodities, coupled with improved risk appetite, caused investors to seek higher yields in emerging markets and commodity currencies. This would draw investment away from the U.S. dollar, which was dragged down by growing debt and the risk quantitative easing would eventually spark a surge in inflation.


This is such horse sh**. Investors don't have "improved risk appetite", they have less risk appetite and that's why they're dumping American dollars. There's a complete dearth of safe havens, though gold is bearing up rather well, as some people realize it's the haven of choice. But anything else? Reits? Nope. Corporate bonds?--I don't think so--also too risky. Commodities--Now perceived as less risky than the American dollars, which were over bought, while commodities were somewhat oversold in late 2008, early 2009. At least that's the perception. This is a risk aversion play. This analyst has it backwards.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Micki » Fri 22 May 2009, 00:51:44

I didn't want to create a thread just for this but still wanted to post it so hope it fits here;

Another one of my favorites Dr Faber clips;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ncQbQWmWLM&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fmarcfaberchannel%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded

He is a real doomer. Talk staying out of warzones by having farms out in the middle of nowhere. He claims to have a pack or vicious dogs himself in his jungle home in norther thailand.
I also like his comments about how the kontradieff winter will end in war and that west is going to lable the enemy as being terrorists. Faber is also known to like to party so his comments about the crops in norther thailand was probably not all just joke either. No wonder he always has that smug smile.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 22 May 2009, 00:56:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'I') didn't want to create a thread just for this but still wanted to post it so hope it fits here;

Another one of my favorites Dr Faber clips;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ncQbQWmWLM&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fmarcfaberchannel%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded

He is a real doomer. Talk staying out of warzones by having farms out in the middle of nowhere. He claims to have a pack or vicious dogs himself in his jungle home in norther thailand.
I also like his comments about how the kontradieff winter will end in war and that west is going to lable the enemy as being terrorists. Faber is also known to like to party so his comments about the crops in norther thailand was probably not all just joke either. No wonder he always has that smug smile.


He sounds like Scrooge McDuck on a bender.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby odegaard » Fri 22 May 2009, 01:56:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..

The secret to developing your intuitive potential is to avoid investing money you can't afford to lose. Fear and nervousness are more likely to drown out the "little voice" if too much is at stake. My original stake of 6,000 quintupled in about 10 years, but only because I wasn't freaked out over what I might lose. I guess there are people who can bet the farm and retain a certain detachment, but I don't think I'm one of them. :)
I've learned the hard way that the objective is not to maximize reward but instead to maximize the reward relative to risk.
BIG difference. For example if I'm holding a large profitable position (say triple in size), I've noticed that I'm more inclined to close my position too early instead of letting the market ride it's course.

--> Emotionally speaking it's easy to understand. Big position = Big profit, so there's a strong urge to take profit too early.

--> Logically speaking this is a stupid mistake. If my position size is 3X, my potential for risk is also triple but my potential for reward is NOT triple because I close too early

That may sound like rambling noise to a casual observer but for anyone who's traded before you know exactly what I'm saying. 8)
"They're not too big to fail, they're too big to bail out!" Peter Schiff
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 01 Jun 2009, 16:54:49

The Rally Continues....will it ever stop???

Just for those that are tracking it. The S&P 500 is up over 5% since these topic was created.

The S&P 500 is up over 42% since its recent lows in March.
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