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Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Tue 19 May 2009, 11:51:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '
')My plan is to buy T-shirts more often than once every 10 years. :mrgreen:


Maybe that is why my wife makes me change before going into public view.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Prince » Tue 19 May 2009, 12:35:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'D')efinitely NOT a trust fund baby but I did have some perks like my parents paying for college.

Quick overview of AAA's life.

-Great great grandfather homesteads 160 acres in New Mexico in late 1800s and ranches
-I worked during highschool and invested 100% of those earnings in the markets.
-I sold all my stocks and bought my first house in Oklahoma when I was a sophmore in college.
-Parents paid for college so thankfully no student debt. I realize not everyone was as lucky.
-Worked during college and invested 95% or more of those earnings in the marekts & paid off the house
-Graduated and sold the house for a good profit and invested in stocks and bonds.
-Work full-time in oil industry and save over half of my salary through living frugally
-Bought 140 acres that borders our original 160 and split the cost with my brother and parents
-Then sold majority of my investments and bought my house in Los Angeles in 2007
-House will be paid off in January 2009


Clif's Notes version: "With mommy's and daddy's help, you can be financially independent too!"
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Prince » Tue 19 May 2009, 12:38:16

AAA--

Since you like to share so much of your life with strangers, let me ask... what is your ethnic and/or religious background?
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Tue 19 May 2009, 13:03:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')Clif's Notes version: "With mommy's and daddy's help, you can be financially independent too!"


haha, let me revise that then if "mommy and daddy" didn't help. It basically would have pushed me back 2 or 3 years.

Instead of buying a house in OK I would have lived in an apartment and used my cash to pay for school.

Then I would have had money left over because college tuition is much cheaper than buying a house so I would have invested it. I would have moved to LA and lived in an apartment for a few years then bought a house in 2009 or 2010.

Clif Notes: Have a Financial Plan, Work Hard, Save/Invest your Money, and Live Frugally
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Tue 19 May 2009, 13:06:17

Prince,

Why do you avoid the question, "What is your financial plan to prepare for a post-peak world?"

AAA
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby gnm » Tue 19 May 2009, 13:07:31

I just don't see how it would be so cheap as you say - I worked my way though college (nearly 40 hrs/week) and it barely paid for rent/food/car/insurance/etc - Between work and 15-17hrs I was bustin ass. I got a couple of grants fortunately for college but had to buy some credits out of my meager income as well.. You come out of that with a degree but no real savings (how ya gonna put 10% down on a house?)

-G
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Prince » Tue 19 May 2009, 13:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'P')rince,

Why do you avoid the question, "What is your financial plan to prepare for a post-peak world?"

AAA


I answered that yesterday. I'm not going to fuel your narcissism, and I don't think it really matters what my financial circumstances are. But I do enjoy occasionally teasing the narcissist, so I will say without going into specifics that I am in a much better situation than most people. Perfect? No, but financial concerns and worries about future financial stability are very, very low on my list of worries at the moment.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Tue 19 May 2009, 13:38:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'I') just don't see how it would be so cheap as you say - I worked my way though college (nearly 40 hrs/week) and it barely paid for rent/food/car/insurance/etc - Between work and 15-17hrs I was bustin ass. I got a couple of grants fortunately for college but had to buy some credits out of my meager income as well.. You come out of that with a degree but no real savings (how ya gonna put 10% down on a house?)

-G


In highschool I was working for around $10/hr doing random labor in the oilfields such as cutting weeds, etc... and investing all that money

In college I was interning at various oil and gas companies. The lowest wage I got was $25/hr and most were above $30/hr. and investing most of that money

Stocks had a few good years and I pulled my money out in the fall of 2000 to invest in the OK house. Houses were cheaper and resale was fairly good.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby drew » Tue 19 May 2009, 17:56:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'A')AA, I play the markets too. It is a very risky thing to do, and not everyone is cut out for it. I am very grateful to this site and PO in general because I have been very heavily cash for several years now, in part because I though oil prices would tank the economy. I knew the housing bubble was a problem but didn't know when it would implode, just like I didn't know when (if) oil would be the catalyst. I have been successful only 50% of the time in my selling (things continued upwards)

Just for the record, here's my returns (lucky, lucky, lucky, I was-especially the 1st year)

'05 90%
'06 8%
'07 .5%
'08 1.5%
'09 15% so far....

I've been 50%+ cash for 2 years now.

I read the whole thread, I don't know exactly why you hit a few nerves, but you did.

I suspect jealousy, but perhaps a bit of hubris on your part too....

Drew



Most likely the reason for 'hitting nerves' is that what he (and you) are spewing is likely lies, even if it isn't you should realize that you are merely getting VERY lucky.



I did say I was very lucky, didn't I?

As for lying, go back and read all my trading posts here ad nauseum.

The reason I made 90% in my first year was because PO wasn't out of the bag. I had read 'Hubbert's Peak' and completely believed the argument thus having the conviction to 'buy, buy, buy!!!' as Jim Cramer would say.

If you read my posts from '06 you'd see me comment on how much harder it was to play on the price of oil-thus the 8%.

'07 I was really stupid and bought at the end of the spring rally after spending 4 months in cash. I also stupidly bought Bell Canada after the price had been driven up 25%. I also sold my Nexen at a tiny loss because I let the emotion of fear blind my common sense. A bad year as my 0.5 % shows.

'08, I knew tswhtf so I stayed in a lot of cash. I took a fair beating in oct/nov despite this position but traded back to even on the price of gold by year end~1.5%

'09 as you know, has been very good for me~15% as I write.

Luck does have a lot to do with it, but so do brains-it's not rocket science.

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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 20 May 2009, 02:12:03

Drew, In 2000, just after Bush was elected I bought Halliburton, because I figured Cheney's golden parachute was a sure promise to his former employer that he'd be wheeling and dealing for them from the white house. I wasn't paying much attention, but one day, I got this strong feeling that I shouldn't be trying to profit from such a creepy organization, so put in a sell order to my broker. Luckily it had gone up at least 50% and could have doubled. I can't remember. What I do remember is within a couple of weeks after I sold it, Halliburton was hit by a huge lawsuit involving asbestos, and the stock dropped over 50%.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Wed 20 May 2009, 11:25:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')rew, In 2000, just after Bush was elected I bought Halliburton, because I figured Cheney's golden parachute was a sure promise to his former employer that he'd be wheeling and dealing for them from the white house. I wasn't paying much attention, but one day, I got this strong feeling that I shouldn't be trying to profit from such a creepy organization, so put in a sell order to my broker. Luckily it had gone up at least 50% and could have doubled. I can't remember. What I do remember is within a couple of weeks after I sold it, Halliburton was hit by a huge lawsuit involving asbestos, and the stock dropped over 50%.


Thats called Trader's Intuition
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 20 May 2009, 11:27:23

For anyone lurking here the most important thing to take away from this thread is that 'AAA' worked in the oil industry and is now working towards an off-grid retreat, sounds like he's got most of it to.

Sounds like a good idea to me.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Wed 20 May 2009, 11:45:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'F')or anyone lurking here the most important thing to take away from this thread is that 'AAA' worked in the oil industry and is now working towards an off-grid retreat, sounds like he's got most of it to.

Sounds like a good idea to me.


I currently work and invest in the oil industry because I think it will be one of the industries that will profit from the peak.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 20 May 2009, 14:54:23

I have serious misgivings about the long term viability of the oil industry. However, it is a tangible product with tremendous utility, that will be preferred , at this time, over holding American dollars, US treasuries. What we are witnessing, in the energy and commodity markets, is the anticipated effect of bail outs and govt stimulus, working their way through the system. These are typical inflationary expectation plays, that have almost nothing to do with real supply and demand.

Here is what you have to watch out for....If international elites wish to retain the American reserve currency status, there could be another whipsaw that sends energy and other commodities plummeting again. Highly volatile. Hedge your bets.

When I look at how much I'm spending just to get through the month, I realize the govts, too, will intervene so that people can afford to eat. It's a terrible dilemma, as people with Alt A mortgages have to refinance in the next few years, and if the govt, tries to contain inflation, which makes food and energy more affordable, they could easily lose their homes, when they are forced to refinance at higher rates. It becomes a choice between, eating, transport, and shelter.

I posted this article 3 months ago. Please read to get an idea just how serious the situation is. It's by far the best piece written about the American banking system, and economic fall out, I've read.

The Quiet Coup--Simon Johnson--The ATLANTIC MONTHLY:

"From long years of experience, the IMF staff knows its program will succeed—stabilizing the economy and enabling growth—only if at least some of the powerful oligarchs who did so much to create the underlying problems take a hit. This is the problem of all emerging markets.

Becoming a Banana Republic

In its depth and suddenness, the U.S. economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets (and only in emerging markets): South Korea (1997), Malaysia (1998), Russia and Argentina (time and again). In each of those cases, global investors, afraid that the country or its financial sector wouldn’t be able to pay off mountainous debt, suddenly stopped lending. And in each case, that fear became self-fulfilling, as banks that couldn’t roll over their debt did, in fact, become unable to pay. This is precisely what drove Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy on September 15, causing all sources of funding to the U.S. financial sector to dry up overnight. Just as in emerging-market crises, the weakness in the banking system has quickly rippled out into the rest of the economy, causing a severe economic contraction and hardship for millions of people."

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby jdmartin » Wed 20 May 2009, 15:02:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
')In highschool I was working for around $10/hr doing random labor in the oilfields such as cutting weeds, etc... and investing all that money

In college I was interning at various oil and gas companies. The lowest wage I got was $25/hr and most were above $30/hr. and investing most of that money

Stocks had a few good years and I pulled my money out in the fall of 2000 to invest in the OK house. Houses were cheaper and resale was fairly good.


I give you credit for being smart with your money. You also had some serious advantages, apparently - for one, being heir to 160 acres, for two, having your parents pay for your education, which is worth at least $40 or 50k for 4 years even if you're frugal, and for three being able to intern for $30+ per hour. Most Americans don't make anywhere near that kind of money working regular full-time work, much less as an intern. $30/hr= $62,400 for a normal workyear; the median US household income in the US last year was about $12,000 less than that. So to say you were extremely fortunate, far more than most, is not far-fetched.

Nevertheless, you could have been a college coke fiend and a 30yo live-at-home bum, so I give you credit for being smart with your money.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 20 May 2009, 15:02:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')rew, In 2000, just after Bush was elected I bought Halliburton, because I figured Cheney's golden parachute was a sure promise to his former employer that he'd be wheeling and dealing for them from the white house. I wasn't paying much attention, but one day, I got this strong feeling that I shouldn't be trying to profit from such a creepy organization, so put in a sell order to my broker. Luckily it had gone up at least 50% and could have doubled. I can't remember. What I do remember is within a couple of weeks after I sold it, Halliburton was hit by a huge lawsuit involving asbestos, and the stock dropped over 50%.


Thats called Trader's Intuition


The secret to developing your intuitive potential is to avoid investing money you can't afford to lose. Fear and nervousness are more likely to drown out the "little voice" if too much is at stake. My original stake of 6,000 quintupled in about 10 years, but only because I wasn't freaked out over what I might lose. I guess there are people who can bet the farm and retain a certain detachment, but I don't think I'm one of them. :)
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby drew » Wed 20 May 2009, 16:16:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
The secret to developing your intuitive potential is to avoid investing money you can't afford to lose. Fear and nervousness are more likely to drown out the "little voice" if too much is at stake. My original stake of 6,000 quintupled in about 10 years, but only because I wasn't freaked out over what I might lose. I guess there are people who can bet the farm and retain a certain detachment, but I don't think I'm one of them. :)


I'm half cash exactly because I can't afford to lose that money. Otherwise I'd certainly be 'all in'...

I guess one reason I've got some self-confidence is the fact that the pros do no better than the average hack like myself, or you, Threadbear.

In fact they do much, much worse. Why do I hear so many commentators saying 'we didn't see it coming'? Why didn't they? I sure as hell did, as did many on this board.

I have a pittance in a LIRA that Manulife runs for me and I checked their returns from last year-every single fund they run (aside from GIC's and money market) lost huge percentages.

As you'd know, the vast majority of the financial community is the same. That is, their sole purpose is to take your money. Whether they lose it or grow it for you certainly seems of secondary importance. My only use for them is the act of lending me money.

For you readers who don't want to do their own homework, and investing, don't listen to me, watch financial adverts instead . They'll tell you it's all about trust and relationship building. Your financial advisor is your friend, he gets you, just like UBS. Sorry, typo, I meant YOU & US just like the ad says......

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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Wed 20 May 2009, 17:04:52

Many professional money managers cannot match the returns of the S&P 500. The reason is they have to be almost fully invested all the time. Whether the market is going up, down, or sideways.

They don't have the benefit, like us, to sit on the sidelines for 6 months holding cash. They must be invested.

I just don't understand why millions of people send their money to those guys.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby gnm » Wed 20 May 2009, 17:10:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I') just don't understand why millions of people send their money to those guys.


Mostly because the fscked government rules that don't allow people to "get out - get in" or diversify (401k)

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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Wed 20 May 2009, 17:35:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '
')
Mostly because the fscked government rules that don't allow people to "get out - get in" or diversify (401k)

-G


I am not following you. :oops: Could you explain a little bit more.
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