[Voice_du_More]

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ccst20090515.png

It is starting to sound to me like we may actually see some official announcements of peak oil in 2008 coming out soon. Just wondering what you guys think. Will the EIA, and IEA call peak, should they, should'nt they, do they have enough data, can they swallow their pride and give us all the nudge in the right direction that such an announcement would be?

Other than OilFinder, how are you all seeing this new data?

[I'm joking OF, of course I want to hear your take as well.]

Also they are talking about a 3.4% decline per year after 2010, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5395#more That ought to be a very significant upward price push at least. Are they talking about offsetting these declines with LNG or something?

It seems to me that the world cannot grow it's modern western economy if the good stuff is declining at 3.4% per year, something is going to have to give and rather soon.

Anyone want to estimate the probability of an official fireside chat in Carter red to let the nation and the world know that the fat lady has sung?

[mos6507]

Demand is depressed. Tankers are stranded with nowhere to dump their extra oil. Oil production figures at this time mean nothing as far as geological constraints go. Oil production charts are TOD's bread and butter but unfortunately this sort of chart watching has been proven much too simplistic in light of the credit crisis.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', '
')t is starting to sound to me like we may actually see some official announcements of peak oil in 2008 coming out soon. Just wondering what you guys think. Will the EIA, and IEA call peak, should they, should'nt they, do they have enough data, can they swallow their pride and give us all the nudge in the right direction that such an announcement would be?

Other than OilFinder, how are you all seeing this new data?

[I'm joking OF, of course I want to hear your take as well.]

[AirlinePilot]

While I'd say we will have a very difficult time going back towards where we were production wise last year, it may not be impossible. I do believe there is a much greater probability that we dont go much higher than where we were anytime soon. At some point, decline is going to outpace global production growths ability to climb. I believe we are going to see this within the next few years.

I also believe personally that we may never get above where we are now for a variety of reasons. However until there is real transparency from Saudi Arabia this is a tough argument to make. It is still possible for a final big push, given some very lucky or serendipitous economic moves. This push could put us near the high 80's to near 90mbpd I think but it would be a last gasp so to speak. As i've been arguing with our resident cornies here, show me the oil! Show me the huge discoveries that are required to get the production up YOY. The gap between discovery and production has been diverging for many years.

The bottom line is its getting close, but there still is too much uncertainty to claim that this is it. I believe we will know definitively by sometime late next year or into early 2011. By then it will likely be obvious that decline is going to win and any economic driven demand collapse will not outpace the decline. If it does we have much larger issues to deal with.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')ll I can say is, an analysis made by ace on TOD has even less credibility than one made by Matt SImmons.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')n making this statement you completely destroy any credibility you might hope to retain in these discussions. You cant even hold a candle to the kind of research that gentleman has done over there. Instead of libeling the man why not refute his argument OF? Seriously.

[Voice_du_More]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')hile I'd say we will have a very difficult time going back towards where we were production wise last year, it may not be impossible. I do believe there is a much greater probability that we dont go much higher than where we were anytime soon. At some point, decline is going to outpace global production growths ability to climb. I believe we are going to see this within the next few years.

I also believe personally that we may never get above where we are now for a variety of reasons. However until there is real transparency from Saudi Arabia this is a tough argument to make. It is still possible for a final big push, given some very lucky or serendipitous economic moves. This push could put us near the high 80's to near 90mbpd I think but it would be a last gasp so to speak. As i've been arguing with our resident cornies here, show me the oil! Show me the huge discoveries that are required to get the production up YOY. The gap between discovery and production has been diverging for many years.

The bottom line is its getting close, but there still is too much uncertainty to claim that this is it. I believe we will know definitively by sometime late next year or into early 2011. By then it will likely be obvious that decline is going to win and any economic driven demand collapse will not outpace the decline. If it does we have much larger issues to deal with.

[Voice_du_More]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')n making this statement you completely destroy any credibility you might hope to retain in these discussions. You cant even hold a candle to the kind of research that gentleman has done over there. Instead of libeling the man why not refute his argument OF? Seriously.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')las, it didn't turn out that way. We had a supposedly impossible ramp up to almost 75 million bpd last summer. If it hadn't been for the economic crash, it would have continued.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', '
')My doomometer is pegged right now

[AirlinePilot]

ace wasnt off by that much. He has admitted several times that I recall that as the Wiki mega projects database got better his analysis has changed. Arguing over the last few mbpd is moot really. Anyone will be off by some amount, but the overall premise is far more plausible than your idea that we keep ramping up and up for decades. With everything thats happening you have to be in serious denial to believe that will transpire.

There is zero support for your premise that production would have continued its climb. We were on and had been on a plateau with only a few hundred K differences month to month. You need to move the scope of your chart out there Oily, you'd see that. But you only select the part which tends to visually support your argument due to the short duration of the datapoints. Typical.

As I've said, denial is a harsh mistress. We shall most definitely see.

[AirlinePilot]

These charts show the bigger picture....







That last one is important. look at the differences betwen the peak points. Its basically flat. Its within a few percent margin. This does not suggest growth, especially in light of large rises in price during that time. We should all hope and pray decline is only three percent or so. Frankly I doubt that but have no data to support another premise. 3-4% is bad enough. if you cant see that, then your completely in denial. We basically run out of time to do anything about it, because we havent done anything yet.

More folks like you and we just wont. Your counter productive to your own future and dont even understand it!

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinger2', 'W')e had a supposedly impossible ramp up to almost 75 million bpd last summer.

[IslandCrow]

In the years I have been here it has constantly been said that we will only know the Peak "in our rear-view mirror", ie some time after the event. I would say that we are still to close to the peak production last year to say that production will not reach that level again. 2006 looked like the peak at the time. From the charts Pilot put up, it looks as if we are experiencing an 'undulating plateau' which started in 2005. In the plateau situation, (so far 5 years) the monthly peaks do not really matter too much, as the nature of the beast is that the actual peak could be almost anywhere on that plateau.

On the technical geological side there is enough out there that I believe it could be possible to have a new peak , BUT there are so many other factors in the equation, such as the economy, or how "rusty" the oil equipment is etc that a close call is almost impossible to make.

I can live with saying "2008 looks like it is a good candidate for the Peak Oli Year, but we need to wait some more years before declaring a winner in the contest"

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', 'I')n the years I have been here it has constantly been said that we will only know the Peak "in our rear-view mirror", ie some time after the event. I would say that we are still to close to the peak production last year to say that production will not reach that level again. 2006 looked like the peak at the time. From the charts Pilot put up, it looks as if we are experiencing an 'undulating plateau' which started in 2005. In the plateau situation, (so far 5 years) the monthly peaks do not really matter too much, as the nature of the beast is that the actual peak could be almost anywhere on that plateau.

On the technical geological side there is enough out there that I believe it could be possible to have a new peak , BUT there are so many other factors in the equation, such as the economy, or how "rusty" the oil equipment is etc that a close call is almost impossible to make.

I can live with saying "2008 looks like it is a good candidate for the Peak Oli Year, but we need to wait some more years before declaring a winner in the contest"

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', '
')Other than OilFinder, how are you all seeing this new data?

[mefistofeles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nfortunately, given our current data, we cannot say with any statistical significance that oil production peaked in 2008. We're currently on top of an undulating plateau, and until there's a clear drop-off (or until Saudi Arabia concedes that its oil production has peaked), we will not be able to observe "peak" with complete confidence.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nfortunately, given our current data, we cannot say with any statistical significance that oil production peaked in 2008. We're currently on top of an undulating plateau, and until there's a clear drop-off (or until Saudi Arabia concedes that its oil production has peaked), we will not be able to observe "peak" with complete confidence.

[mefistofeles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know if such high prices are possible - look what happened with oil at $147 - economic collapse. Even if you don't believe that sustained high oil prices were principally to blame for the collapse, it certainly was a causative factor. Prices that high again would likely just knock the stuffing out of any nascent recovery, sending the world economy into another recessionary dip, and the oil price with it.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know if such high prices are possible - look what happened with oil at $147 - economic collapse. Even if you don't believe that sustained high oil prices were principally to blame for the collapse, it certainly was a causative factor. Prices that high again would likely just knock the stuffing out of any nascent recovery, sending the world economy into another recessionary dip, and the oil price with it.