[Prince]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I')nflation only erodes your purchasing power. My goal is to be as self-sufficient as possible. Therefore if the price of milk doubles it doesn't affect me because I use goat milk. If the price of gas triples it affects me only slightly because I won't be commuting to work, grocery store, or anywhere. If the price of clothes goes up double it doesn't affect me because I don't buy clothes that often and when I do they are low priced clothes.

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')What about the food for the goats?

[AAA]

Prince,

What is your current financial plan to prepare for a post-peak world?

If you have a better one than mine, I might switch.

AAA

[odegaard]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'i')f you could do it in silence, it would be great

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'i')f you could do it in silence, it would be great

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s it possible AAA is telling the truth, and is a wildly successful 26-year old, and everybody else is jealous?

Nah.

[AAA]

So again I ask...

Prince & odegaard,

What is your financial plan to prepare for a post-peak world? Or do you have one.

AAA

[Prince]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'S')o again I ask...

Prince & odegaard,

What is your financial plan to prepare for a post-peak world? Or do you have one.

AAA

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')
Other than the fact that you're a narcissist and crave attention, why do you care? (Don't give me the bullshit that you're looking for our advice or information...)

[odegaard]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'H')ahaha...maybe you have missed my prior posts but I am moving money out of stocks my friend. Why would anyone be placing new money in the markets after a 35% rally in a few short months?

[drew]

AAA, I play the markets too. It is a very risky thing to do, and not everyone is cut out for it. I am very grateful to this site and PO in general because I have been very heavily cash for several years now, in part because I though oil prices would tank the economy. I knew the housing bubble was a problem but didn't know when it would implode, just like I didn't know when (if) oil would be the catalyst. I have been successful only 50% of the time in my selling (things continued upwards)

Just for the record, here's my returns (lucky, lucky, lucky, I was-especially the 1st year)

'05 90%
'06 8%
'07 .5%
'08 1.5%
'09 15% so far....

I've been 50%+ cash for 2 years now.

I read the whole thread, I don't know exactly why you hit a few nerves, but you did.

I suspect jealousy, but perhaps a bit of hubris on your part too....

Drew

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '
')step 1: NOT take financial advice from someone on the internet who replies, "Maybe I am a computer program designed to screw with you guys."

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'A')AA, I play the markets too. It is a very risky thing to do, and not everyone is cut out for it. I am very grateful to this site and PO in general because I have been very heavily cash for several years now, in part because I though oil prices would tank the economy. I knew the housing bubble was a problem but didn't know when it would implode, just like I didn't know when (if) oil would be the catalyst. I have been successful only 50% of the time in my selling (things continued upwards)

Just for the record, here's my returns (lucky, lucky, lucky, I was-especially the 1st year)

'05 90%
'06 8%
'07 .5%
'08 1.5%
'09 15% so far....

I've been 50%+ cash for 2 years now.

I read the whole thread, I don't know exactly why you hit a few nerves, but you did.

I suspect jealousy, but perhaps a bit of hubris on your part too....

Drew

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '
')Most likely the reason for 'hitting nerves' is that what he (and you) are spewing is likely lies, even if it isn't you should realize that you are merely getting VERY lucky.

[gnm]

Takes money to make money as they say... If you are indeed 26 (right out of college?) then its unlikely that you clawed your way up through the corporate world and made enough money to buy 300 acres plus preps plus living expenses, college etc and still have enough to play the markets. So you either started out as a trust fund baby or have had a lot of family help. Enjoy the rally while it lasts. Got lots of good stuff? Can me and the banditos put your doomstead on the phase one raid list?

-G

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'T')akes money to make money as they say... If you are indeed 26 (right out of college?) then its unlikely that you clawed your way up through the corporate world and made enough money to buy 300 acres plus preps plus living expenses, college etc and still have enough to play the markets. So you either started out as a trust fund baby or have had a lot of family help. Enjoy the rally while it lasts. Got lots of good stuff? Can me and the banditos put your doomstead on the phase one raid list?

-G

[Voice_du_More]

It seems we are caught in a nice little bubble again. The larger forces are waiting in the wings to massively inflate or deflate the dollar but we are walking a tight rope right now through some crafty manipulation in my opinion. It cannot last because here is what is waiting. If we recover, inflation spurred on by higher energy prices will limit the growth. We will not be able to make up for the losses of the last couple years with a strident 5-6% growth for five years because oil would jump well over it's now record high. Other nations like China however are still in the game so demand from them will probably remain strong. They do not have anywhere near the oil hangover that America has which we have to try to slosh through by drinking more and more cheap oil, yet. On the other hand, if consumers keep going into the paradox of thrift we could see large percentages of companies going bankrupt and large numbers of service jobs associated with retail lost. China is vulnerable to this as we saw, millions of jobs were lost in China during the downturn in the US. Nobody really wants hyperinflation in the dollar, but strong deflation is much worse because it does not mean more buying power for American consumers, it means that for some but a pink slip for millions of others.
Since the American economy is mostly low paying service jobs that would be a blow that we could never recover from. Those who had jobs would make out well for a while but the cancer would force civil unrest beyond anything we could imagine. And that is I think the ultimate end of either of the two pathways. The have nots eventually get tired of having not.

I do wish I could see some other way, a gentle fluffy powerdown if possible, but I only see here a lull, a half hour of silence before the second act. Oil wants to fly above sixy and flirt with seventy, and gas wants to flirt with $2.50. Only more tightening by US consumers will stave this off and we are more sensitive in the wake of last years price spike to the issue so I expect any rally to be very short -lived as the psychology that we are in a depression will be reinforced by these factors.

There may be a run up throughout the summer as oil pushes into the $70-$90 range, but we may be surprised at just how depressed everyone is.

Those are the factors as I see it. Pray that China does not find a way to move quickly against the dollar since our plight is a double edged sword for them. A shrinking US economy means shrinking demand for exported Chinese goods, while a growing US economy means higher oil prices for the world and in the end reduced demand for exported chinese goods. If they decide to feel the pain and dramatically insulate themselves from the dollar we will be the one's asking Beijing to build cars here and import them to china. (sorry I had to put a vague reference to the impending GM bankruptcy for my brothers in the UAW)

Hang on folks, hang on tight!

[AAA]

So....

shady28 & prince,

What is your financial plan to prepare for a post-peak world?

We saw that odegaard is getting squeezed while shorting the DOW but admits he has no real plan.

I don't mind people attacking my plan but they should have a plan of their own to back it up.

[odegaard]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '.')..
I don't mind people attacking my plan but they should have a plan of their own to back it up.