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Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby sameu » Sun 17 May 2009, 18:24:55

he hasn't make money
he's break even
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 11:36:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'Y')ou beat me to it odor-god, I hold my nose and nod my head sagely when I hear about how this or that guy was able to perfectly time the market dips and rises, sorry...... but it always seems we hear about what they did after they did it, never hear about what they're planning to do. I guess tripleA just knew he had to liquidate his positions right before the NYSE tumbled from that mid 14,000 level, right tripleA?


I guess you guys don't read too well. I said I made up my losses with NEW money being invested. New money is the key to salvaging a lossing portfolio in a downturn. You should never be fully invested for scenarios just like we saw and dollar cost averaging can make a huge difference.

I lost over 40% in the big downward slide but by placing new money into the market I have been able to regain those losses. Somewhat because the stocks I owned before the crash started to regain a little but 95% or more of my returns are from new money being placed in the market every time it dropped significantly.

I have never claimed to time the market perfectly. I just buy when the market is tumbling and sell as soon as I get a decent return. I had faith the markets weren't going to zero and would eventually recover. I was actually buying stocks anticipating to hold them for a couple of years before I saw any substantial gains. I thought the markets would be flat for some time but the markets chose to rally A LOT sooner than I anticipated. So I am taking profits.

Are you guys pissed because you are in cash and have not gained a penny in the 34% rally in the S&P?
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:05:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', 'W')hat AAA claims is a *technical* possibility
but..........the devil is in the details.



Did anybody actually look at the stocks I showed?

Those are my best performers I have bought in the last few months. I don't think a single stock I have bought in 2009 is down right now most are modest gains but gains non-the-less.

I bought Bank of America (BAC) because I new the govt wouldn't let it fail. It is too big to fail. I bought in at mulitple levels below $7/share and was LUCKY enough to buy a couple times when it was below $4/share. Then sold majority of my holdings when it got around $10/share.

I bought General Cable Corp. (BGC) because I new all the talk about renewable energy would fester talk about our electrical grid. BGC was down huge because of housing but I knew Obama would have a positive effect on the stock. I bought in around $10/share and $7/share but if you look it up will notice it dipped down to $6/share BUT I did not buy then because I was afraid it might go lower and I had enough money invested in it.

I bought MYR Group (MYRG) back when were were having icestorms around the US. MYR Group repairs electrical lines. Icestorms equal profit for MYRG. I actually bought this stock late last fall and during the winter when it was under $7/share. Then sold my entire position 4 months later when it reached $15/share.

DCP Midstream (DPM) is a pipeline MLP. It followed natural gas prices down. I knew natural gas prices couldn't go much further so I bought some DPM around $9/share and sold it 3 months later when it got over $17/share.

Trinity Industries (TRN) builds railcars and wind towers. Both vital for the future. It was oversold and I picked some up around $7/share and sold it 2 months later around $15/share.

In the last several months I have only caught a couple stocks at there true bottom and I was lucky enough to invest in a S&P 500 index fund at its bottom. Even then, most of my position in those stocks were bought at higher levels.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '
')Getting back to AAA's claim.
Did he honestly make that much money in such a short amount of time?
maybe yes / maybe not (my gut says no...I'll explain later)
Can he do this on a consistent basis --> IMPOSSIBLE


I never claimed to do it on a consistent basis. If I could ... I would be running a multi-billion dollar hedge fund in NYC.

How many times have you seen the S&P 500 move 34% in a few months? This is definitely an anomaly but I wanted to take advantage of it and I did.
At least 20% of my returns are from buying an S&P 500 index fund and then selling it. The rest are individual stocks.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby sjn » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:08:22

I guess that makes me a genius investor then, since I put my savings into PMs as they dipped when the de-leveraging started. :roll: I find it amazing anyone here has lost money.. :)
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:08:29

Fake wealth. :lol:
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:23:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'F')ake wealth. :lol:


Actually that fake wealth allowed us to buy a large order of MH #10 cans and Provident Pantry #10 cans last week.

It has also allowed me to buy a brand new FNAR .308 rifle and 500 rounds of Remington Express that will be stored at our doomstead because it is not legal in California.

Image

Last month we also bought a 1,000 gallon freshwater tank for our doomstead for the new water well that we had drilled in February.

So that fake money is paying for quite a bit.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Revi » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:43:34

If you made some money that's great! They are just jealous.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:54:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
')
Image



Is that as cool as it looks?
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 13:01:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')f you made some money that's great! They are just jealous.


I assume very few po members have acheived all their goals to prepare for living in a post-peak world unless you are already retired or you are independently wealthy and have the freedom to act.

Not all but many of those plans consists of buying land in the country, living off the grid, and setting up your farm and livestock. All that takes money especially if your doomstead is in an area with few jobs or very low paying jobs.

Just 10 acres, complete solar setup, water well, septic tank, house, barn, etc...can add up over a couple hundred thousand dollars pretty easy unless you can do it all by yourself.

I can't so I need to make money to help in my preparations. Making money in the markets is a lot easier than getting a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th job. But if you sit on the sidelines and dont invest you can't make anything. Vice versa you can't lose anything. But again I need to make money to help with my future plans or else they will never happen.

Many of you know I plan on retiring at 40 and moving to our doomstead. I only have 14 years left. Living frugally won't allow my family to save that kind of money even though we save more than 60% of my salary. I just don't make that much money at my job. So that is why I invest in stocks and real estate.

When you invest, you always run the risk of losing money but to me the potential rewards are much higher than the risks. That being said there is no reason to be pissed off or bitter. I would be happy if you were making money. Instead of being mad I would try and figure out how to profit also.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 13:04:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '
')
Image



Is that as cool as it looks?


My brother got one a couple of months ago and fell in love with it. He actually bought another one to store and convinced me to buy one even though I have never shot one. He has shot many rifles and says this is the best one he has shot by far.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby sameu » Mon 18 May 2009, 14:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')
When you invest, you always run the risk of losing money but to me the potential rewards are much higher than the risks. That being said there is no reason to be pissed off or bitter. I would be happy if you were making money. Instead of being mad I would try and figure out how to profit also.


dude we just don't care ok
sometimes you win sometimes you lose
now go make some money and quit whining about your fake modesty :roll:
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 14:45:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')dude we just don't care ok
sometimes you win sometimes you lose
now go make some money and quit whining about your fake modesty :roll:


Considering most of the posts in this thread are responses to my original post, it appears people do care. Just not in a caring way. :-x

Its ironic when I am excited and actually talk about what I am doing to prepare for a post-peak world, people get angry. I agree with Revi when he said $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')They are just jealous.


Instead of not caring and getting angry why don't some of you actually start doing!
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Prince » Mon 18 May 2009, 14:55:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'M')any of you know I plan on retiring at 40 and moving to our doomstead. I only have 14 years left. Living frugally won't allow my family to save that kind of money even though we save more than 60% of my salary. I just don't make that much money at my job. So that is why I invest in stocks and real estate


Another 26 year-old with all the answers :roll:

You may very well be unemployed, err "retired", at age 40, but the circumstances will hardly be voluntary. I commend you for your efforts and visions of grandeur, though. Most of us are ideologues at your age... this premise has been true since the beginning of mankind.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:11:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'M')any of you know I plan on retiring at 40 and moving to our doomstead. I only have 14 years left. Living frugally won't allow my family to save that kind of money even though we save more than 60% of my salary. I just don't make that much money at my job. So that is why I invest in stocks and real estate


Another 26 year-old with all the answers :roll:

You may very well be unemployed, err "retired", at age 40, but the circumstances will hardly be voluntary. I commend you for your efforts and visions of grandeur, though. Most of us are ideologues at your age... this premise has been true since the beginning of mankind.


I definitely don't have all the answers. But all you have to do is build a treasury or bond ladder. It is an easy calculation.

Say you take home $20,000 per year, or $60, or $200k, whatever...

You then build your ladder and invest in T-bills or munis and get 4% interest (higher if inflation comes roaring in).

So divide $20,000 by 4% and that equals $500,000.

$500,000 (and no debt) is all you need to make $20,000/year tax-free and never touch the principal.

Then make your life as self-sufficient as possible and you will actually be saving money each year. We are more than half way there and unless something bad happens like a job loss or total collapse of the US then we should make it as long as we are disciplined. If I do lose my job then we sell our house and with our cashe we have about 10 years worth of take home pay before we have to start sweating the bills.

I don't make a huge salary we just live well within our means. You can't do this by keeping up with the Jones.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby sameu » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:15:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')dude we just don't care ok
sometimes you win sometimes you lose
now go make some money and quit whining about your fake modesty :roll:


Considering most of the posts in this thread are responses to my original post, it appears people do care. Just not in a caring way. :-x

Its ironic when I am excited and actually talk about what I am doing to prepare for a post-peak world, people get angry. I agree with Revi when he said $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')They are just jealous.


Instead of not caring and getting angry why don't some of you actually start doing!


I'm not angry
it's great you have a plan
but please spare us the fake "I would be happy if you were making money. Instead of being mad I would try and figure out how to profit also"
yes of course, everybody wants to be you :roll:
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:27:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')
I'm not angry
it's great you have a plan
but please spare us the fake "I would be happy if you were making money. Instead of being mad I would try and figure out how to profit also"
yes of course, everybody wants to be you :roll:


You crack me up. :lol:

Lets just say I will enjoy the rally while it lasts. The S&P 500 is up another 2.5% today. :wink:
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby sameu » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:29:18

if you could do it in silence, it would be great
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Prince » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:33:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I') definitely don't have all the answers.

No, you definitely do not. Your response, chock full of rosy suppositions supports this statement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'B')ut all you have to do is build a treasury or bond ladder. It is an easy calculation.

Say you take home $20,000 per year, or $60, or $200k, whatever...

You then build your ladder and invest in T-bills or munis and get 4% interest (higher if inflation comes roaring in).

So divide $20,000 by 4% and that equals $500,000.

$500,000 (and no debt) is all you need to make $20,000/year tax-free and never touch the principal.


That is a big, big *if*. Seeing how the US is strategically bankrupt and that T-bills are currently yielding far less than 4%, you are making some very wide and dangerous assumptions. For T-bills to yield 4%, interest rates will have to go much, much higher. Maybe that will happen with inflation that is likely coming down the road. But then that begs the question--once inflation hits, your "fortune" from T-bills will be eroded by the inflation that gave you your fortune in the first place. So on the best case, you might do a little better than break even--certainly better than keeping cash in your account or under your mattress, but also unlikely to keep you rich.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'T')hen make your life as self-sufficient as possible and you will actually be saving money each year. We are more than half way there and unless something bad happens like a job loss or total collapse of the US then we should make it as long as we are disciplined. If I do lose my job then we sell our house and with our cashe we have about 10 years worth of take home pay before we have to start sweating the bills.

I don't make a huge salary we just live well within our means. You can't do this by keeping up with the Jones.


You sound like one of those stock brokers who tells the average Joe that if he puts in $300/mo he'll have X million in 30 years, while neglecting to inform the "investor" that the condition for such results is based on an unrealistic 18% average annual gain. My point being, you make a lot of baseless and chimerical assumptions. I don't want to come across as a dick, because I think you are on the right path and you are at least trying to find opportunity in an otherwise dire situation. At age 26 you can idealize and make plans that seem so perfect on paper, but I guarantee you that as you get older things will change. Things happen unexpectedly, and unexpectedly almost always means for the worse. You may get ill, your job may disappear, your wife may leave you, there might be illness in your family, your safety may disappear. Whatever the "what if", it is highly likely that something will happen in the future that will greatly derail your plans. That's why I think fine-grain plans are almost always worthless. It is better to look at things from a broader picture.
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby Prince » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:35:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')
I'm not angry
it's great you have a plan
but please spare us the fake "I would be happy if you were making money. Instead of being mad I would try and figure out how to profit also"
yes of course, everybody wants to be you :roll:


You crack me up. :lol:

Lets just say I will enjoy the rally while it lasts. The S&P 500 is up another 2.5% today. :wink:


As an all-knowing oracle in the world of professional money management and investing, I'm sure you know the common law--"You can't time the market."
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Re: Enjoy The Rally While It Lasts

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 15:53:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')That is a big, big *if*. Seeing how the US is strategically bankrupt and that T-bills are currently yielding far less than 4%, you are making some very wide and dangerous assumptions. For T-bills to yield 4%, interest rates will have to go much, much higher.


Treasury Yields It looks like the 20 and 30 year yields are above 4% right now and tax-free

New Mexico munis above 6% and also tax-free.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')Maybe that will happen with inflation that is likely coming down the road. But then that begs the question--once inflation hits, your "fortune" from T-bills will be eroded by the inflation that gave you your fortune in the first place. So on the best case, you might do a little better than break even--certainly better than keeping cash in your account or under your mattress, but also unlikely to keep you rich.


Inflation only erodes your purchasing power. My goal is to be as self-sufficient as possible. Therefore if the price of milk doubles it doesn't affect me because I use goat milk. If the price of gas triples it affects me only slightly because I won't be commuting to work, grocery store, or anywhere. If the price of clothes goes up double it doesn't affect me because I don't buy clothes that often and when I do they are low priced clothes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '
')You sound like one of those stock brokers who tells the average Joe that if he puts in $300/mo he'll have X million in 30 years, while neglecting to inform the "investor" that the condition for such results is based on an unrealistic 18% average annual gain. My point being, you make a lot of baseless and chimerical assumptions. I don't want to come across as a dick, because I think you are on the right path and you are at least trying to find opportunity in an otherwise dire situation. At age 26 you can idealize and make plans that seem so perfect on paper, but I guarantee you that as you get older things will change. Things happen unexpectedly, and unexpectedly almost always means for the worse. You may get ill, your job may disappear, your wife may leave you, there might be illness in your family, your safety may disappear. Whatever the "what if", it is highly likely that something will happen in the future that will greatly derail your plans. That's why I think fine-grain plans are almost always worthless. It is better to look at things from a broader picture.


Obviously you didn't read my earlier post very carefully. I am not trying to make millions. It is actually less than a million dollars. And my goal is based on 4% returns.
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