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PeakOil is You

Lost Decade or Permanent Boom and Bust cycle?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Lost Decade or Permanent Boom and Bust cycle?

Unread postby AAA » Fri 15 May 2009, 19:32:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')
I own quite a few December 55 puts on the SPX and I just bought two more today.

Good enough?


Good. At least a couple people on po have enough balls to put their money where their mouth is.
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Re: Lost Decade or Permanent Boom and Bust cycle?

Unread postby patience » Fri 15 May 2009, 20:43:54

Yeah, well, we all have made our choices. Even doing nothing is a choice. For myself, I think the market is outrageously dangerous, and got out for T's last year, then got out of T's in January and went to cash and 20% junk silver coins. Other "savings" is in hard goods--stuff we will use, eat, or make productive in some way. There are a lot of investment options that don't involve paper or contracts, which is where I'm headed and mostly there. Good luck playing the market. I see it as a day trade only now, and wiser heads than mine are sitting it out.
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Re: Lost Decade or Permanent Boom and Bust cycle?

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 11:24:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'Y')eah, well, we all have made our choices. Even doing nothing is a choice. For myself, I think the market is outrageously dangerous, and got out for T's last year, then got out of T's in January and went to cash and 20% junk silver coins. Other "savings" is in hard goods--stuff we will use, eat, or make productive in some way. There are a lot of investment options that don't involve paper or contracts, which is where I'm headed and mostly there. Good luck playing the market. I see it as a day trade only now, and wiser heads than mine are sitting it out.


So you are totally out of the market earning nearly no interest on your cash? No pension plan or 401k invested?
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Re: Lost Decade or Permanent Boom and Bust cycle?

Unread postby jdmartin » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:29:01

I'm currently completely out of the market, other than a pension plan which I can't control investment choices. I sold off my remaining GM & Ford stock in January. Ford I would have made a couple of bucks on if I held it, and lost a couple of bucks on GM, so it ends up a wash.

I think we're in a reverse-sawtooth boom/bust cycle, and I have no idea where the point of equilibrium is. That said, as AAA said, you can make some money if you know where the peaks and valleys are - or suspect where they are. If you're wrong, of course, you lose out. I don't spend enough time watching the different companies to be able to time those things with any accuracy, and there's too much volatility for me to stomach these days, so I'm more focused on finishing paying off the mortgage than trying to game the market.
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Re: Lost Decade or Permanent Boom and Bust cycle?

Unread postby AAA » Mon 18 May 2009, 12:34:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', ' ')so I'm more focused on finishing paying off the mortgage than trying to game the market.


Paying off debt should be key before anyone invests heavily in the markets. And no-one should invest money they might need in 6 months or a year.
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