[cualcrees]

What say you?

Have we broken the $50 usd. per barrel mark never to go back? is it all uphill from here or are we gonna go back under $50, even under $40 like we saw not long ago?

[copious.abundance]

Schmuto bragged about the same thing here more than a month ago when it got up to $54.

But within a few weeks it got back down to about $47.

So who knows?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')So who knows?

[Schmuto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')chmuto bragged about the same thing here more than a month ago when it got up to $54.

But within a few weeks it got back down to about $47.

So who knows?

[copious.abundance]

Perhaps "bragged" wasn't the right word. I should have said, "Schmuto got all excited that the price was up to $54."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schmuto', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')chmuto bragged about the same thing here more than a month ago when it got up to $54.

But within a few weeks it got back down to about $47.

So who knows?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')s this like your prediction here??

[Schmuto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')s this like your prediction here??

[Schmuto]

And just to hammer home the point . . .

Here's my crow -

The post that I made that OF linked is certainly a terrible post, for the urgency of it, the absoluteness of it, and, of course, the incorrectness of it. Bit hysterical really.

So, good find OF - I hadn't remembered even posting that.

I won't even pull a YesPlease and try to backpedal and say that "in the long term" is what I meant. I didn't. I meant right then, right there.

I guess I got caught up in.

On the bright side, I sold about 1/3 of my long positions at close to 140 and did quite alright.

On the down side, I left a whole large bunch of money on the table by not cashing out the other 2/3s.

[copious.abundance]

Schmuto, I would hope that little lesson would teach you to be a bit more cautious about your predictions. For starters, "Never say never." And yes, you would be doing yourself a favor if you toned down the hysterics and the drama.

[Revi]

I made a little bet on oil going up back in January. I bought USO at $32, and it promptly went down to $25. Now it's back around $32, so maybe it will pay off after all.

Oil closed over $55, which is supposed to be bullish.

Only time will tell...

[AirlinePilot]

Patience revi, patience..... It will be going much higher, oh yes.

[Revi]

Thanks AP. I was really nervous around February, but now it looks like my little hedge may work out after all. I bet about the same amount on USO as we buy in oil for the winter. That way whatever happens with the price of oil, we're okay.

[Schmuto]

Seems like a good time to pop this thread again.

Oil is about to cross 70.

It's moving very aggressively up.

Anybody want to bet me that OPEC production will not be mostly flat or declining over the next 6 months even if oil goes back over 100?

[Maddog78]

Sure, I'll take that bet.
B.O. is over there making nice with the Kingdom of S.A. If the price shoots up they'll open the tap for their new buddy.
I don't think we'll quite make it to $100 this year though.

[copious.abundance]

AHA! Here's the thread Maddog was talking about.

[Graeme]

100 million barrels of crude oil on ships: Total

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ARIS (Reuters) - Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Thursday it was storing crude oil on land and estimated 100 million barrels of crude were held in floating vessels around the world.

An oil price structure known as a contango has encouraged oil companies to store crude oil in tanks on land and tankers anchored at sea with a view to selling it for a profit later.

Last week, trade sources said crude oil in floating storage had fallen to around 90 million barrels from around 100 million barrels, as prompt crude prices rose and narrowed the discount to prices further out

[Maddog78]

Damnit OPEC is pulling a fast one on me.
Looks like I might lose this bet now.
We'll see how many cheaters turn the pumps up though.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')PEC Will Wait for $100 Oil Before Raising Output (Update1)

By Fiona MacDonald

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the supplier of 40 percent of the world’s oil, will only consider increasing output when the price of crude rises to $100 a barrel, according to Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Abdullah al-Sabah.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to meet in September, wouldn’t raise production with oil at $75, “but if it reaches $100, maybe,” al-Sabah said today in Kuwait.

Crude oil traded in New York has climbed almost 60 percent this year, after plunging more than $100 in five months at the end of 2008 as the global recession curbed demand for fuel.

Oil prices have increased because investors have bought crude as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar, not because demand is rising, al-Sabah said.

“The numbers, in terms of economic recovery, are not in correlation with the rise of oil,” he said.

Oil futures rose above $70 a barrel yesterday for the first time since November, and traded at $71.14 as of 8:38 a.m. London time today.

[nobodypanic]

so the question now is, how high do you think it's going to go before it, once again, crashes the economy (well what's left of it)?

this time i am going to short the sucker and ride it on the way down.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'D')amnit OPEC is pulling a fast one on me.
Looks like I might lose this bet now.
We'll see how many cheaters turn the pumps up though.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')PEC Will Wait for $100 Oil Before Raising Output (Update1)

By Fiona MacDonald

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the supplier of 40 percent of the world’s oil, will only consider increasing output when the price of crude rises to $100 a barrel, according to Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Abdullah al-Sabah.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to meet in September, wouldn’t raise production with oil at $75, “but if it reaches $100, maybe,” al-Sabah said today in Kuwait.

[...]