[heyhoser]

I'm thinking (a dangerous thing, I know) that the Peaking process is going to be like an old car low on gas trying to drive through the mountains. As the engine gets hot and the gas gets low, the car is going to groan a lot more while going uphill. Then, it's going to say, 'Ah, thank God' as it crests the hill and goes down the slope. But, sh*t, another hill is coming up! Eventually, you never know when, the car is going to die on one of those uphill slopes.
So, I'm looking for our two uphill slopes in the next six months:
1- Driving season-What will prices do and how will our economy cope if we start to choke?
2- Winter-If we make it through the summer, can we expect to make it through the cold while our heat is blasting?

In conlusion-I believe we will get through the summer with nothing more than some serious spikes. But, right now, I'm not so sure about the winter. I say-chop some wood and buy some matches. Keep an eye on those prices and our trustworthy government officials.

[Bandidoz]

I reckon....
Demand exceeding supply this year.
Supply falling from 2007.

[meemoe_uk]

Just looking at the small part of the PO_is_now cults history that is preserved on this forum.

Peakers in 2005 were wondering if a 2005 peak would choke the economy in winter 2005-6.
97% of forumers thought peak oil would happen before today (2012). They were wrong. Kinda. In every year in their history, peakers and their predecessors the running outers, will always declare old extraction techniques to be conventional, while new techniques are unconventional so don't count when assessing the peak.
In this case, many peakers hung on to the idea that 2005 was the year of peak oil, even several years after the all liquids measure of oil had surpassed 2005. Anyone here still think 2005 was peak oil?

Bandidoz is now a mod on the powerswitch uk forum. Wonder if he uses the standard lame excuse for his failed PO prediction.
Shame this forum doesn't go back to 1970. Then todays peakers could easily access the hysterics and delirium of PO those days. And see its just the same as todays.

I like the 'we will never reach peak option'
Not that it alluded only to abiotic or regenerating oil, but the possibility that oil will become obselete when a better power source is discovered, before geological peak oil happens. Well it already happened back in the 1950s with the advent of nuclear power. But then, the PTB didn't want to gift such easy energy to the world, which would have allowed a world population of 100billion or so.

[dolanbaker]

Depends on what criteria you use, the "cheap and easy" stuff is already past peak.

[meemoe_uk]

lol dolan.
A new reader on this forum would think you and the rest of the peak oil gang have lost all interest in peak oil as in 'all hydro carbon liquids' which I think was the original meaning. Whenever the subject of peak oil comes up, a so-called peaker will immediately divert the topic to some off topic discussion - such as what peakers refer to as 'cheap and easy oil.', or oil prices.
Since you lot seem so interested in these other subjects why, not busy yourself with peak old oil extraction techniques history 6000BC to 1950AD aka the 'cheap and easy' PO forum standard, why not build up a fact base on the subject? Like peak bucket oil ? Peak bucket and spade oil ? Peak sieve in a swamp oil ? Peak pick axe oil? Peak hand drilled oil & Peak steam drilled oil?

btw ( and continuing you off topic deflection ), ( and for feels like the 100th time of telling ) any sensible assessment of recent oil extraction costs would reveal that todays oil is extremely cheap and pretty easy. Shale oil, a really crap last ditch despairing option if peakers are to believed, is only around $50 to extract per barrel. The real value of a barrel if its energy content is compared with muscle power is at least around $16000-$20000. The oil gushing out of the new middle east wells is cheaper than shale oil.
The hydro carbon EROEI for a good shale deposit is around 70:1, and such deposits are collosal.

[dolanbaker]

Shale oil is only $US 50 a barrel because the gas used to process it is currently dirt cheap due to overproduction, a relatively short-lived situation. It was only six years or so ago when shale oil was too expensive to compete on the open market, now demand has driven up the price so much that it is now viable.

The modern western lifestyle is dependent on cheap and plentiful fuel. The Third world can and do make the oil work much harder for it's worth. 1000 litres can either get one oversized US car with one passenger 5000 miles or can run a generator to keep hundreds of Chinese workers employed for a day (they walk to work!).

[Pops]

LOL, So, there is no problem until the price of oil reaches $20,000/bbl?

Most of the predictions around PO are pretty obviously proving true, 6 year plateau of conventional production so far, highest average price ever in 2011, substitution of inferior products at higher price (ethanol, condensates, etc), decline in available exports, demand destruction in mature economies, arguably destructive effects on the global economy, etc., etc.

Again, every "mainstream" estimate of low price and higher production by agencies like the EIA, IEA, CERA, in the first years of this site have proven wrong.

There are almost a million posts on the site, I've no doubt you can pick out some doozies to jeer at. What that tells me is that your interest here is not in discussing or debating peak oil, but merely to deride and denigrate and gin up an argument. Commonly that's called trolling.

[meemoe_uk]

>LOL, So, there is no problem until the price of oil reaches $20,000/bbl?
Essentially, that's right. But all the useless consumer economy would dry up. People's work would be needed to actually do something useful at those prices.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of the predictions around PO are pretty obviously proving true, 6 year plateau of conventional production so far, highest average price ever in 2011, substitution of inferior products at higher price (ethanol, condensates, etc), decline in available exports, demand destruction in mature economies, arguably destructive effects on the global economy, etc., etc.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'I') like the 'we will never reach peak option'
Not that it alluded only to abiotic or regenerating oil, but the possibility that oil will become obselete when a better power source is discovered, before geological peak oil happens. Well it already happened back in the 1950s with the advent of nuclear power. But then, the PTB didn't want to gift such easy energy to the world, which would have allowed a world population of 100billion or so.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'A')nd if the peak_oil_is_now gang insist in trying to ring the global panic alarm, and to keep doing it for hundreds of years, don't be too put out if sometimes someone points out that your previous alarms were unfounded. Who is the troll? The boy who falsely cries wolf for a hundred years? Or the villagers who point to previous false wolf alarms? Most of us would say its the boy. Would you?

[ralfy]

"Oil’s getting harder and harder to come by"

http://peakoil.com/geology/oil%E2%80%99 ... o-come-by/

[meemoe_uk]

>So if the EIA posts data that says nuclear is more expensive than natural gas, coal, hydro, etc, do you believe that data is lies? It is all a part of a massive conspiracy to suppress cheap energy technologies?
Yup, that's it. Looks like our private exchange wasn't totally in vain.

>We have MUCH BETTER data to analyze. We have history on our side also.
I was a peaker from 2006-2008. I looked at the data, I looked at history. It was an every year fail for the peak oil is now gang. I looked at why they got it wrong every time and found out. So I became a corny.

[Ming]

I have been studying the Peak Oil problem for the last 10 years or so.
I have published papers from 2005 to 2011 predicting peak production of fossil oils (i.e. natural liquid fossil fuels, including non-conventional oil and Natural Gas Plant Liquids, but excluding biofuels and "things" that need plant processing to become liquid) around 2012.
I still expect this to be true.

In case anyone wants to check:
http://www.di.ubi.pt/~palmeida/Publicacoes.htm

[Mesuge]

Ming> nice little university you have there in Covilhã, Portugal.

Would you mind elaborate a bit on your country, peoples, culture, comming full circle from an old remote roman trade outpost, over the times of peak naval discoveries, colonial rule abroad, and recently the ongoing contraction afterwards? Isn't it trending full circle into the original state? It seems to me that Portugal is the country-nation, which can make the transition somewhat less disorderly process as in comparison to say Greece or the US, which will quite likely burn down.

I've heard lot of young people today are leaving Portugal for "greener pastures" - better jobs be it Brazil, Angola etc.? I think it's short sighted, unless they return home with the experience & cash on day.

So, be it, you have got all those nice oceanfront beaches, little towns, and villages (after dealing with the overpop hydra by factor of at least 2-3x). Certainly not for living the "affluent" fossil trip lifestyles of yesterday, but lovely country for the basic albeit hard rural life.

[meemoe_uk]

>predicting peak production of fossil oils ... around 2012.
Funny how the 10 year old kid who'se just read the cover hype article on LATOC, and the learned proffessor studing petroleum depletion for 10 years always come to the same conclusion on peak oil.
Nieve Kid : Peak oil is now cos i read it on a web site!
Learned proffesor : According to incredibly detailed and up to date analysis, peakoil is about now.

Always.

Sorry ming. Perhaps in your studying on peak oil, if you'd been a bit more suspicious of the US led invasion into the middle east in 2001, you might have seen 'bringing democracy to the middle east' was actually a cover story for a project to bump up world oil production to about 100mpbd by 2020, and so you'd have to adjust your predictions out of line with the nieve kid.
Peak oil will definitely not be around 2012.

Just like the 'ming's of 2004, all there research showed peak oil was about 2004. They were wrong. And so you will be too!

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')orry ming. Perhaps in your studying on peak oil, if you'd been a bit more suspicious of the US led invasion into the middle east in 2001, you might have seen 'bringing democracy to the middle east' was actually a cover story for a project to bump up world oil production to about 100mpbd by 2020

[Revi]

I think we peaked in light sweet crude in 2005, and have been peaking in other measures since. They include things like natural gas liquids and biofuels, so they are suspect. The peak happened in 2005 and the other stuff is just added on. It's like the low hanging fruit was already picked and now they are including the drops in the tally.

[vision-master]

The shills count 'theoretical reserves'...........

Of course it's all a big maybe. lol

[meemoe_uk]

>So at what cost?
Nothing unusual. Oil wars and fluctuating markets is business as usual for the oil industry.

You are such a shill........
Really?
Your right in as much as one of us is a shill.
One of us is hyping a commodity as scarce, effectively trying to pump up the market price.
The other is saying there's no scarcity saying things are pretty normal in historical context.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk ', 'S')o if the EIA posts data that says nuclear is more expensive than natural gas, coal, hydro, etc, do you believe that data is lies? It is all a part of a massive conspiracy to suppress cheap energy technologies?
Yup, that's it. Looks like our private exchange wasn't totally in vain.