by the48thronin » Sat 21 Mar 2009, 23:24:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '6').5 percent down in the entire trucking industrial system for 2008,, that's not to bad compared to many other business that are off by 30 percent,, 6.5% should not close any company at all unless they were not being ran properly to begin with..
Show me more like 50% down in 12 months than it will look bad, [not 6.5% in 12 months that's nothing]
I do think you are really over reacting here,, I think just because your work has gone south and I am sorry for this but it does not mean it is all collapsing now.
There will still be trucks on the road for many years to come,, calm down....
Again I wonder if we are having two separate conversations. The 6.5 percent is not of the entire trucking industry.. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2').0 percent of the nation’s over-the-road heavy-duty trucks, closed their doors in the third quarter.
NOTE the words in the third quarter
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')That brings the total number of trucks pulled off the road in 2008 to more than 127,000 trucks or 6.5 percent of the trucks in the industry.
“
The first three quarters of 2008 have already established a new record for the amount of capacity pulled from production within a single year,” Broughton wrote in his third-quarter report on the industry.
MY work is not going south, My customers are so far still having their museum pieces moved, their lectures still happen, and the government still needs to open new offices for secure installations. Should all those fail IGT and Bally are always looking for perfect record carriers with 5 million claimless miles of electronics and robotics.
My agent books loads of many types, most of them similar to spec com or commercial moving vans.... another 40 people I know have no work, my customers are not interested in letting them pull the loads I pull. They have their own specialties their work has gone south simply because their customers have gone south. You have made a lot of assumptions I don't feel pertinent to the discussion, but should they be keeping you from understanding the actual topic at hand. I would off thread be glad to explain to you your mistakes.
Lets go back to the purpose of and topic of this thread.
"Just in time" not individual "must be there" such as I do haul, but "just in time" the distribution and supply chain model that eliminated warehouses by demanding movement scheduled to allow manufacture or distribution with no inventory in a warehouse.
I myself do not haul any JIT freight at any time.. I do not work in supply to manufacturers nor do I participate in retail distribution. But those who do are experiencing the effects of the crashing economy brought on by high energy prices.
Those energy prices might have lowered a great deal, but the world is not going back to pre bubble burst days.
One of the permanent changes is the end of JIT. That is what this thread is about.
Your assertions that there will always be trucks are valid in that there will most likely always be people trying to distribute, change the value of something by changing the location of it.
You failure to understand the consequences of the crashing of the logistical system imposed on the entire world for the last 50 years as unworkable not with standing, your assumption that should 25 percent of American trucks stop running you would have gasoline or food in the middle of a desert in a city no one will have any need to go to is possibly short sided.
If 2 percent of long haul trucks left the road in the same month rail road freight dropped by 10 percent..... your life line is becoming a little threadbare.
I hope you are practicing your cactus eating survival skills. Just in case you have mistaken the seriousness of the loss of a major amount of the actual movement of good from one place to another as well as the actual bringing into existence of those goods worth moving.
Chip desert goat milk shakes maybe?
While looking for stats on UPS ground shipments I came on this. It shows the real depth of the slowdown. The shipments of metals and autos being down 45%+/- tells the real story. I guess its time to go back to the Doomer prep threads and do more then just read them.