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Oil will hit $20 pb by May

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Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby CoachT » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 12:49:51

Oil will continue to slide. Weak demand due to world economic conditions will be the main cause. For those of you who have followed my previous posts, I have said that oil would drop from the $140's to the $30's. It will continue to drop to the 20's and if economic conditions do not start to change by the 3rd quarter, we might even see the teens.
Enjoy yhe ride down.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 14:02:26

When I first started buying gasoline (for a '66 Mustang), it cost about .28 a gallon. Could it go there again?

I just used my high school lunch money to buy the stuff ...
Last edited by Colorado-Valley on Tue 20 Jan 2009, 16:35:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby mefistofeles » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 14:50:44

I have my doubts that oil will go any lower, the markets are completely in Contango with oil trading at $47.00 for May. Oil seems to have bottomed out already at somewhere under $35.00. Everytime it hits that price floor the price seems to bounce.

Another interesting thing is the spread between WTI and Brent its $7.00 at current prices. To me that implies that something is very much out of whack here. A best case scenario would be Brent being overpriced by a few dollars and WTI being underpriced, which means a real price of $40.00

I think this is as low it will go, I could be wrong.
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Re: Oil will hit %2420 pb by May

Unread postby Schmuto » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 16:33:08

Coach T, I'll give you credit. You called it. You nailed it. I remember it well. I was wrong. You were right.

But you were right for the wrong reasons, and I was wrong for the wrong reasons.

So coach, once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and you're going to need 3 to make it a pattern.

You say oil is going down and will keep going down? Noted.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 22:04:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'O')il will continue to slide. Weak demand due to world economic conditions will be the main cause. For those of you who have followed my previous posts, I have said that oil would drop from the $140's to the $30's. It will continue to drop to the 20's and if economic conditions do not start to change by the 3rd quarter, we might even see the teens.
Enjoy yhe ride down.

Well I hope you're right, 'cause in the 2009 oil price guess thread I guessed $21 as the low for this year. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 22:10:37

In fact, not only did CoachT guess correctly it was going to go down, he even correctly guessed the week the price would peak!

8O

Coach T said on July 2
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'O')il has had a nice run. Based on todays activity, it looks like it will start out strong tomorrow. Probably because of the dollar. Today coal futures dropped over 10%. Is oil going to follow? I think so. I think it can be as early as next week. If investors see a $15 drop in 1 day I think many will bail out and then oil will drop drastically.

I've got a sneaking suspicion CoachT is an oil trader. [smilie=eusa_think.gif]
Last edited by copious.abundance on Tue 20 Jan 2009, 22:20:06, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 20 Jan 2009, 22:18:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'O')il will continue to slide. Weak demand due to world economic conditions will be the main cause. For those of you who have followed my previous posts, I have said that oil would drop from the $140's to the $30's. It will continue to drop to the 20's and if economic conditions do not start to change by the 3rd quarter, we might even see the teens.
Enjoy yhe ride down.
So you don't think that OPEC will cut enough production to keep prices around $40/bbl?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby gollum » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 09:40:01

I think there is a definate floor of $35, probably a ceiling of $50, barring war etc.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby stellaf » Mon 16 Feb 2009, 03:23:29

Hi,

Thanks for sharing such a useful information with us and please keep me updating on this.

Stella

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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby Schmuto » Thu 19 Mar 2009, 12:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'O')il will continue to slide. Weak demand due to world economic conditions will be the main cause. For those of you who have followed my previous posts, I have said that oil would drop from the $140's to the $30's. It will continue to drop to the 20's and if economic conditions do not start to change by the 3rd quarter, we might even see the teens.
Enjoy yhe ride down.


Coach T I just wanted to check in to update everybody on your prediction.

It looks like your prediction is going to bite the big one, and it looks like you're going to be off by over 100%.

In the argot of investors, this means that people taking your advice are getting Madoffed.

So, as I noted in my previous post, it appears that you are a fine example of the blind dog finding a bone.

You've now run around with your bone for the last 1/2 year showing everybody how you found it.

Problem is, you've now failed to find a second bone, and this really is the danger of making concrete predictions - they are so easily proven false.

So we just crossed 50. There'll probably be a drop after contract expiration on Monday, then a slow climb back up during the May contract period.

It's very possible that we'll never get to 40 again. This is really a fundamentals issue. Sure, KSA is almost a complete unknown - but most of the rest of the world is showing signs of major oil production stress.

So enjoy your bone, and remember -

Once is an accident,(<---You are here)
Twice is a coincidence,
and
Three times is a pattern.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 Mar 2009, 14:46:45

Yeah my low call isn't looking good right now, I was figuring it would continue to fall sharply before anything OPEC did had a chance to take effect. But it's only March, and stranger things have happened, so who knows?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 Mar 2009, 14:51:17

However if you look at the current Oil Price Challenge rankings I'm #10, near the top, so I'm not doing so bad so far.

:)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 Mar 2009, 14:55:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')eah. Much stranger things. Like Peak Oil?

Or, maybe not.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby aahala2 » Fri 20 Mar 2009, 11:19:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'W')hen I first started buying gasoline (for a '66 Mustang), it cost about .28 a gallon. Could it go there again?


Depending of the year of your purchase, and adjusting
for inflation, the price of gasoline at some locations in
mid-November 2008 was pretty near that level you
paid.

You probably didn't have a choice between leaded and
unleaded then and we don't now as well. In the years
both were available, unleaded was a few cents higher
so maybe we have already reached .28 in real terms
a few months ago.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby timmatoil » Fri 27 Mar 2009, 11:01:06

I will be surprised if oil falls by that much, I actually expect oil to rise a little, however I could be wrong.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby bodigami » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 20:14:49

Oil is $52 now... probably $74 in 3 months.
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 12 Apr 2009, 20:25:59

Iono. We would have to see a significant economic recovery, more dollar weakness, or a great production cut from OPEC, to get to 70+ IMO. Out of those three, I'd say that dollar weakness is the most likely, but even then I don't think we'll see beyond $60+/bbl, but only time will tell I suppose.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil will hit $20 pb by May

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 13 Apr 2009, 00:18:03

IEA 2008 study of 800 largest oilfields showed that 580 (72%) were declining in production

see archives 12/4/2009 re north sea

i'm happy to go with jim rodgers ; invest in commodities , water and food
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