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Mexico collapse watch thread

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 10:04:09

Mexico sends shivers across the border

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ELIPE ANGELES, Mexico — Four hooded men smashed in the door to the adobe home of an 80-year-old farmer here in November, handcuffing his frail wrists and driving him to a makeshift jail. They released him after relatives and friends paid a $9,000 ransom, which included his life savings.

Some people from Felipe Angeles left to escape violence.

The kidnapping was a dismal story of cruelty and heartbreak, familiar all across Mexico, but with a new twist: the daughter of this victim lived in the United States and was able to wire money to help assemble his ransom, the farmer, who insisted that he not be identified by name, said in an interview.

A string of similar kidnappings, singling out people with children or spouses in the United States, so panicked this village in the state of Zacatecas that many people boarded up their homes and headed north, some legally and some not, seeking havens with relatives in California and other American states.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Mon 12 Jan 2009, 22:22:49

Military to Mexican Border "if" Drug Violence Spreads Across into US
http://www.nationalterroralert.com/upda ... ads-to-us/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If Mexican drug violence spills across the U.S. border, Homeland Security officials say they have a contingency plan to assist border areas that includes bringing in the military.

“It’s a common sense extension of our continued work with our state, local, and tribal partners in securing the southwest border,” DHS spokeswoman Amy Kudwa said Friday.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, who described the contingency plan in an interview with The New York Times this week, said he ordered specific plans to be drawn up this summer as violence in Mexico continued to mount.

The plan includes federal homeland security agents helping local authorities and maybe even military assistance from the Department of Defense, possibly including aircraft, armored vehicles and special teams to go to areas overwhelmed with violence, authorities said.

Kudwa would not give specifics on the so-called “surge” plan, but said it does not create any new authorities.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby octopus » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 18:25:53

El Paso Times

U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 01/13/2009 03:49:34 PM MST

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.

In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.

The U.S. military report, which also analyzed economic situations in other countries, also noted that China has increased its influence in places where oil fields are present.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby NoahsDove » Fri 16 Jan 2009, 19:05:26

I believe half of Mexican economy is subsided by oil which is expected to run out pretty soon.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 23 Jan 2009, 02:26:38

Mexico considers re-instating the death penalty

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Congress in Mexico has agreed to debate the issue of reinstating capital punishment for some crimes.

The move follows a surge in murders and kidnappings in the country, many linked to drug cartels and organised crime.

Mexico abolished capital punishment in 2005, but recent surveys suggest that 70% of Mexicans are in favour of the death penalty.

The campaign to reinstate judicial executions has, unusually, been led by Mexico's Green Party.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Mon 09 Feb 2009, 21:09:35

Mexican drug violence spills over into the US

By ALICIA A. CALDWELL, Associated Press Writer Alicia A. Caldwell, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 27 mins ago

Just as government officials had feared, the drug violence raging in Mexico is spilling over into the United States.

U.S. authorities are reporting a spike in killings, kidnappings and home invasions connected to Mexico's murderous cartels. And to some policymakers' surprise, much of the violence is happening not in towns along the border, where it was assumed the bloodshed would spread, but a considerable distance away, in places such as Phoenix and Atlanta.

Investigators fear the violence could erupt elsewhere around the country because the Mexican cartels are believed to have set up drug-dealing operations all over the U.S., in such far-flung places as Anchorage, Alaska; Boston; and Sioux Falls, S.D.

In an apartment near Birmingham, Ala., police found five men with their throats slit in August. They had apparently been tortured with electric shocks before being killed in a murder-for-hire orchestrated by a Mexican drug organization over a drug debt of about $400,000.

In Phoenix, 150 miles north of the Mexican border, police have reported a sharp increase in kidnappings and home invasions, with about 350 each year for the last two years, and say the majority were committed at the behest of the Mexican drug gangs.

In June, heavily armed men stormed a Phoenix house and fired randomly, killing one person. Police believe it was the work of Mexican drug organizations.

Authorities in Atlanta are also seeing an increase in drug-related kidnappings tied to Mexican cartels. Estimates of how many such crimes are being committed are hard to come by because many victims are connected to the cartels and unwilling to go to the police, said Rodney G. Benson, DEA agent in charge in Atlanta.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sun 22 Feb 2009, 04:08:34

State Senator Dan Patrick… “TEXAS NATIONAL GUARD ON ALERT”

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')exas State Senator, Dan Patrick, was on FoxNews this morning at 8:45am. He said he had some “breaking news to share”. Boy was it!!! The Texas State Legislature had been trying very hard to get the Obama Administration to respond to a critical situation on the Texas Border. The Administration had not gotten back with Texas as of last night. So the State of Texas told Washington D.C. basically they could go jump, and “we’ll take care of Texas!”. As of last night… the Texas National Guard has been put on High Alert!!! This is the first time in history! Texas tried, desperately to get Washington’s approval… but when they could not get it… they acted on their own.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 22 Feb 2009, 04:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '[')url=http://www.thecommentary.net/state-senator-dan-patrick-texas-national-guard-on-alert/]State Senator Dan Patrick… “TEXAS NATIONAL GUARD ON ALERT”[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')exas State Senator, Dan Patrick, was on FoxNews this morning at 8:45am. He said he had some “breaking news to share”. Boy was it!!! The Texas State Legislature had been trying very hard to get the Obama Administration to respond to a critical situation on the Texas Border. The Administration had not gotten back with Texas as of last night. So the State of Texas told Washington D.C. basically they could go jump, and “we’ll take care of Texas!”. As of last night… the Texas National Guard has been put on High Alert!!! This is the first time in history! Texas tried, desperately to get Washington’s approval… but when they could not get it… they acted on their own.


1. I can find no confirmation for this that doesn't go back to this one site.

2. I see that the state senator likes to be on TV a lot.

3. What would "on-alert" mean in practical terms?

Texas Military Forces News
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 16:50:10

Great article over at the Oil Drum on the ongoing collapse:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5172#more
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 08 Mar 2009, 17:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'G')reat article over at the Oil Drum on the ongoing collapse:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5172#more



Yes, please read this article and share it around. It outlines the seriously doomerish scenario many here have been discussing for several years. Oil revenue as a significant source of state income ceases by the end of this year. Reduced remittances, tourism and exports will all occur together. This means within a very short period of time afterwards, the possible evaporation of state authority will occur. This may trigger a military intervention by the USA. In other words; another war. Worse yet, Mexico may just be the first of many states soon to fail.

First the USA better unwind its other wars and military occupations because the USA is just about at 'peak soldiers.'
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 08:35:20

link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')WASHINGTON — President Obama weighed in Wednesday on the escalating drug war on the U.S.-Mexico border, saying that he was looking at possibly deploying National Guard troops to contain the violence but ruled out any immediate military move.

"We're going to examine whether and if National Guard deployments would make sense and under what circumstances they would make sense," Obama said during an interview with journalists for regional papers, including a McClatchy reporter.

"I don't have a particular tipping point in mind," he said. "I think it's unacceptable if you've got drug gangs crossing our borders and killing U.S. citizens."
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 08:52:09

A simple, cheap solution for a lot of problems: overcrowded prisons, drug-addicted n'er-do-wells, Mexican-instability.

Execute drug addicts in the US; by the millions; the people who refuse to reform themselves. We would thin out the herd based on chosen behavior, without the need for prisons. We would reduce criminal behavior in the US, eliminate drug gangs destabalizing Mexico by eliminating their customer base.

We are willing to put up with "collateral damage" of innocent civilians wagings wars against foreign enemies; why not actually kill guilty people who are domestic enemies straining social programs and prison systems?

I don't see a downside for people who choose to lead hard-working, clean lives. The US is overpopulated & has too many people dragging down the system.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 09:41:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Execute drug addicts in the US; by the millions


You're one of the more level-headed posters here. I'm surprised you'd start veering into Montequest "cut the cord" territory. I don't have a lot of sympathy for drug addicts, but jeez, wouldn't legalization be a lot easier?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')I don't see a downside for people who choose to lead hard-working, clean lives. The US is overpopulated & has too many people dragging down the system.


The downside is that it's excessive punishment for what is ultimately a victimless crime. Once you go down that road I'm sure you could find plenty of other capital offenses in the name of culling the herd. "Off with their head!" will be the new mantra.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 10:17:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Execute drug addicts in the US; by the millions


You're one of the more level-headed posters here. I'm surprised you'd start veering into Montequest "cut the cord" territory. I don't have a lot of sympathy for drug addicts, but jeez, wouldn't legalization be a lot easier?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')I don't see a downside for people who choose to lead hard-working, clean lives. The US is overpopulated & has too many people dragging down the system.


The downside is that it's excessive punishment for what is ultimately a victimless crime. Once you go down that road I'm sure you could find plenty of other capital offenses in the name of culling the herd. "Off with their head!" will be the new mantra.


You are right about the other option... legalization is the only other option that would probably work; although I do remain rather skeptical about the value of "education" and trying to "improve" people. I'm not real sure legalizing drugs wouldn't just lead to cheaper drugs (hence less profit for drug dealers) and more widespread use and a generally less-productive society... on the other hand not much can be worse than the system we have now

All in all, I'd rather see money spent on education & treatment than law enforcement given our mediocre approach; I think Rand corporation said it is 5X more effective use of money putting a dollar into treatment compared to law enforcement.

I've long thought the middle-ground approach of the US war on drugs to be stupid. We should either legalize drugs or fight it like a real war, and by real war I mean more in the scorched earth mode of war, not the wars-have-rules mode.

It is a dangerous road to go down BUT it is not completely a victimless crime. When someone is addicted to drugs, legal or illegal, their actions will probably have a serious negative effect on someone. You probably don't want someone addicted to drugs driving mass transit, or something that requires dilligence or concentration.

If someone is living in a shack in the middle of the woods with no one around them, living off the land, and they don't drive a car, and society doesn't pay for them, then I have no problem with them using drugs. If they are writing a computer software the controls the dosage an x-ray machine doles out, or driving a car, or filling a prescription at a drug store (ironic), I don't want them addicted to drugs.

I have mixed feelings about alcohol use but alcohol does seem to have its own unique history and place in many human cultures.

Other things, like eating red meat or too many donuts, may have a societal price in terms of financial costs, but the act of someonelse eating red meat won't result in me being killed, unless the fat b*****d falls off a building and crushes me.

Ethically, I don't have a problem with the death penalty. I have a pragmatic problem with innocent people being found guilty of a serious crime like murder and being sentenced, but I wouldn't have a problem with it being used against people guilty of multiple crimes. For example, I would weep no tears for someone who has spent the last 10 years doing identity theft and gets executed.

Life is a gift and a privilege, not right. So-called "natural" rights are nothing of the kind, they are something humans invented, not mother nature.

Our society usually has the usual 3 choices: an enlightened way that would work, a harsh way that would work, and the usual ineffective middle-approach that always seems to prevail in our over-politicized society.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 10:30:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')
Life is a gift and a privilege, not right. So-called "natural" rights are nothing of the kind, they are something humans invented, not mother nature.

Our society usually has the usual 3 choices: an enlightened way that would work, a harsh way that would work, and the usual ineffective middle-approach that always seems to prevail in our over-politicized society.


The problem with the privilege approach is the slope that ends on who gets to decide who gets to keep the privilege and who has forfeited it. It is all well and good until a mob, paperwork mix up or just some ideological fad decides that you and yours have forfeited the privilege.

Retaining the language and ideal of "rights," if for no other reason, has the great benefit of places a obstacle in front of the mob, the ideologue or the failure of the system. The can intern you in a camp (like the Japanese in WW2), they can beat you, threaten to shoot you and throw you in a hole in Leavenworth (Mennonites, Hutterites and Amish during WW1), but they have a ideoloigcal obstacle that keeps them from rounding you up and shooting you (Stalin, Hitler, place your other favorite right or left wing government or movement here).

Given the potential cost of a harsh effective way; I think I would prefer ineffective.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:10:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'T')he problem with the privilege approach is the slope that ends on who gets to decide who gets to keep the privilege and who has forfeited it. It is all well and good until a mob, paperwork mix up or just some ideological fad decides that you and yours have forfeited the privilege.

Retaining the language and ideal of "rights," if for no other reason, has the great benefit of places a obstacle in front of the mob, the ideologue or the failure of the system. The can intern you in a camp (like the Japanese in WW2), they can beat you, threaten to shoot you and throw you in a hole in Leavenworth (Mennonites, Hutterites and Amish during WW1), but they have a ideoloigcal obstacle that keeps them from rounding you up and shooting you (Stalin, Hitler, place your other favorite right or left wing government or movement here).

Given the potential cost of a harsh effective way; I think I would prefer ineffective.


What was the ideological obstacle that prevented the genocide of the native Americans or prevented 600,000 people from being killed in the Civil War?

Our society cherry-picks who lives and dies like every other. We mostly like to do our killing now a days out of sight. A lot of our way of life is not due to people fighting for our "freedom" but our activities such as backing oil dictators (who kill their own people, in place of us directly) so we could have relatively cheap oil.

We have a proxy economic empire just like Athens did in the Peloponessian war. We wiped out the weak Native American tribes when it was convenient (Athens wiped out Melos), came crawling back with tail between our legs from Vietnam when we bit off more than we could chew (like Athens in Syracuse). Read "War is a Crock" by fmr Brigadier General (and 2-time Medal of Honor winner) Smedley Darlington Butler.

I suppose the difference between executing drug addicts in this country and letting our proxies execute or work to death people in 3rd World countries is that the drug addict that dies today might be the drug addict that would have crashed a train I was riding tomorrow, where as the 3rd World person may have died so I can have 39 cent a lb banana or fly a plane via cheap oil to Cancun.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:26:06

Of course we kill in war, that usually requires we treat people as sub-humans. We portray the hun as an ape or the North Vietnamese as a ________ or an Arab as a "raghead."

The genocide of the American Indians was carried out because we did think of them as sub human and in the name of "progress."

I work with a lot of drug addicted kids. Some end up in the system because someone over-reacts when they use just once or twice, who gets to decide when these kids get shot? you?

Most addicts are not driving your train; they are installing your carpet or roofing your neighbor's house. Perhaps we should just shoot people who text?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/01/train.crash.probe/index.html

Yes we de-humanize people so we can kill them and most of this happens out of sight. That does not seem to me an argument to say, "that's a great idea lets make it normative so my neighbor kid who uses ectasy once a month can "disappear." Who else disappears? People who protest your action? Old people who drive slow in the fast lane? Truck drivers who drive to fast in the snow? People who talk on the cell phone while driving?
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'O')f course we kill in war, that usually requires we treat people as sub-humans. We portray the hun as an ape or the North Vietnamese as a ________ or an Arab as a "raghead."

The genocide of the American Indians was carried out because we did think of them as sub human and in the name of "progress."

I work with a lot of drug addicted kids. Some end up in the system because someone over-reacts when they use just once or twice, who gets to decide when these kids get shot? you?

Most addicts are not driving your train; they are installing your carpet or roofing your neighbor's house. Perhaps we should just shoot people who text?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/01/train.crash.probe/index.html

Yes we de-humanize people so we can kill them and most of this happens out of sight. That does not seem to me an argument to say, "that's a great idea lets make it normative so my neighbor kid who uses ectasy once a month can "disappear." Who else disappears? People who protest your action? Old people who drive slow in the fast lane? Truck drivers who drive to fast in the snow? People who talk on the cell phone while driving?


Somebody always decides SOMETHING. And all governments draw lines SOMEWHERE. Very little is black and white - a line usually needs to be drawn somewhere; we are just arguing over where that line is drawn.

We kill and eat animals, and who says THAT is moral just because it is "normative"?

Maybe if there was a 99% certainty of death, people would modify their behavior or be removed from othe gene pool. If I knew that there was a 99% chance of being arrested, tried, and executed by slowly being lowered feet-first into a woodchipper, simply for walking on the grass -- I wouldn't walk on the grass.

Its all probably a moot point anyway. When TSHTF, society and people are going to have to make hard choices about who to try to save, it won't be a matter of targeting someone for arrest, trial and execution. I suspect people who are undisciplined drug abusers won't last very long in a post-peak world.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:42:08

Yeah works great in theory... until of course people make mistakes or perhaps someone slips something in your drink and then calls the police, or we start to focus on some drugs (crack) more than others (powder cocaine) or what not.

The problem we do not live in theory we live in the real world and the language of rights, if nothing else, acts as a fail safe to limit (not eliminate) the crimes that can be committed. If you get rid of that failsafe you are are responsible for both the intended consequences as well as the unintended.

We would not agree on the intended consequences but that is beside the point. I do not think you are taking into account the unintended.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Mar 2009, 11:54:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'Y')eah works great in theory... until of course people make mistakes or perhaps someone slips something in your drink and then calls the police, or we start to focus on some drugs (crack) more than others (powder cocaine) or what not.

The problem we do not live in theory we live in the real world and the language of rights, if nothing else, acts as a fail safe to limit (not eliminate) the crimes that can be committed. If you get rid of that failsafe you are are responsible for both the intended consequences as well as the unintended.

We would not agree on the intended consequences but that is beside the point. I do not think you are taking into account the unintended.


I think the idea I've espoused before was a good one: a mathematical system based on points that punishes career criminals and drug abusers. One or two offenses for something like drugs wouldn't be enough points for execution. You wouldn't get enough points to be executed if someone slipped something in your drink. Points would be assigned based on the severity of the crime, likelihood of guilt (instead of our current binary all-or-nothing system), extenuating circumstances, and impact on a victim.

Once a person has X # of points, then they have a certain period of time to knock off Y # of points off their record to avoid being executed. (ie you did 2 armed robberies, 1 carjacking, 4 burglaries, 5 carthefts, 20 abuses of drugs,1 rape... maybe if you can disprove 1 serious offense or 10 more minor offenses then you avoid execution.

Thus a person who say gets framed for murder doesn't get executed in the point system. Or quite possibly actually commits one serious crime. One incident is a mistaken choice. 20 choices is a pattern.
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