by bodigami » Thu 16 Apr 2009, 02:04:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukkha', 'I') like reading this forum - from time to time - but this thread highlights just what's wrong with it. Take the first item on the list: The peak in coal extraction. Predicting this is a fearsomely complicated business. I've no idea when it's going to happen and I suspect that most of those who answer have no better idea than I have, yet answers are happily thrown out without any justification at all. If you're interested in carrying out some kind of sociological investigation into doomerism, then I guess it's a reasonable question but otherwise, I have no idea what the value of this kind of idle, groundless speculation is.
From a practical economic and social standpoint we've 'peaked,' because we are already on a long plateau of stalled oil production since around 2005.
We know that the supergiant and giant fields are in decline (6.7% see EIA), we know new discoveries lag production by a margin of 1:4 or so (have for two decades), and we know any short-term future production growth will maintained by few low (relatively)-eroei fields (African/Brazilian/GOM deep water, Arctic?, shale formation, etc.) that (due to new production methods) will exhibit catastrophic declines when their time comes (see Cantarell, Yibal, North Slope, etc.) We are also witness to strange pertubations of a complex high-energy-input social/industrial/financial system possibly approaching a tipping point. A sign of limits.
Future specific geologic production Peak will be unknowable, a consequence of multiple interrelated factors (geologic, methodologic, economic, chronologic, etc.) Do we measure all liquids including biofuels, processing gain, NGLs etc. without considering real net-fuel gains from each process? How long does economic decline stretch peak? Or does it? Maybe decline makes outlying fields too costly to produce?
Welcome to the new paradigm--CHAOS

It's Peak Coal not Peak Oil.