[julianj]

excellent, both of you!

[EnviroEngr]

[TrueKaiser]

what about those wacky people who wanted to be raptured
anyway i give this story about a 6, it needs more of the following.

[JohnDenver]

For the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil. Perhaps his most notable "prediction" is the following from March 5, 2001:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')A previous study put the 'cliff event' in year 2012 (Duncan, 2001). However, it no appears that 2012 was too optimistic. The following study indicates that the 'cliff event' will occur about 5 years earlier than 2012 due an epidemic of 'rolling blackouts' that have already begun in the US. This 'electrical epidemic' spreads nationwide, then worldwide, and by ca. 2007 most of the blackouts are permanent.

[Stoic]

I've been wondering the same thing. Ironically, it was my reading on the Olduvai Theory that eventually led to me reading about Peak Oil. I have to say that OT gave me quite a scare when I first went over the details, and it also turned me onto a lot of PO facts that I didn't know (like the US peaking in the 1970's, and worldwide discovery peaking).

But, the fact that he hasn't said anything in the past few years is very suspect. Not to mention the fact that his theory has a flaw which is addressed in the Wikipedia discussion re OT. Someone on there pointed out that the third world can increase in population, thereby decreasing energy per capita, and yet still allow for developed countries to live the high life. A simple, and yet powerful criticism.

[JohnDenver]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbon ... pter1.html

[chargrove]

Sure, that chart shows a roughly level per-capita usage. And because of population growth, we have more "capitas" than we used to. That means an increase in usage over the population as a whole, as expected. So what's your point?

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil. Perhaps his most notable "prediction" is the following from March 5, 2001:

[jato]

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I') wasn't aware Richard had a website. Could I have the link?

[jato]

DANGER! That would be a breach in ethics and against the law.

Maybe he is in his bunker! I wish I had a bunker!

[jato]

This thread is worthless without this chart:



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')otes: (1) 1930 => Industrial Civilization began when (ê) reached 30% of its peak value. (2) 1979 => ê reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c. (3) 1999 => The end of cheap oil. (4) 2000 => Start of the "Jerusalem Jihad". (5) 2006 => Predicted peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper). (6) 2008 => The OPEC crossover event (Figure 1). (7) 2012 => Permanent blackouts occur worldwide. (8) 2030 => Industrial Civilization ends when ê falls to its 1930 value. (9) Observe that there are three intervals of decline in the Olduvai schema: slope, slide and cliff — each steeper than the previous. (10) The small cartoons stress that electricity is the essential end-use energy for Industrial Civilization

[NevadaGhosts]

You tell him, Jato.

John, if you are so opitimistic about our future, perhaps you should start your own George Jetson space mirror forum, instead of wasting your time here with us 'doomers'.

[peaknik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'F')or the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil.

[holmes]

yeah for the life of me I can understand why denver is here. He is illiterate when it comes to ecology, biology and most natural sciences and always wants "THE NUMBERS". the fucking numbers are all over the place. study after study. library after library science university after science university. govt after govt. sorry capitalism and socialism is not reality, John. peace out. and the numbers on the sustainablility of ag practices is everywhere and quite quantifiable. But that not what folks want to hear. They want to hear what they want to hear. Later. We need to sacrifice people on those space mirrors like the aztecs and incas. appease the Gods. have a flint knife i knappped. Heart extraction.

[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'y')eah for the life of me I can understand why denver is here. He is illiterate when it comes to ecology, biology and most natural sciences and always wants "THE NUMBERS". the fucking numbers are all over the place. study after study.

[AlCzervik]

I am too stupid to understand the hard science of Duncan, but a lot of people other than Duncan have said we are going to have big time problems with natural gas very soon. See Matt Simmons:
"Simmons: I don't think there is one… The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty."
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... ckout.html

The likelihood of a nat. gas crisis is why Duncan moved his date up to 2007.
http://www.bytesmiths.com/InfoArk/www.m ... isited.htm

So, while I think permanent blackouts by 2007 is extreme, rolling blackouts seem very possible. Duncan should be credited for even bringing up the possibility of permanent blackouts. If he is 20 years off on this, big freaking deal. It will just show we were too stupid to deal with the largest problem facing mankind when some really bright people like him were sounding the bell about energy sustainability issues.

[Stoic]

Does anyone have the energy per capita figures for recent years (2000-2004). I would like to see where the world is in relation to Duncan's predicted curve.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlCzervik', 'I') am too stupid to understand the hard science of Duncan, but a lot of people other than Duncan have said we are going to have big time problems with natural gas very soon. See Matt Simmons:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Matt Simmons', 'I') don't think there is one… The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.

[BlisteredWhippet]

If he has a telephone in his bunker, we can find him. The Internet is like a public street, there is no expectation of privacy. Its not illegal to track down people using the phone and the internet. I used to do work like this and tracked down people all the time.

I'll look into it if you send me the data you've got in a pm.