by dorlomin » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 19:54:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')I've said it many times before, and I will say it again: You can't have your doom and eat it. If you get your "peak oil" doom and oil becomes scarce and expensive, you will be denied your "there are no electric farm tractors" doom. On the other hand, if you get your "there are no electric farm tractors" doom, that will be because you were denied your "peak oil" doom. I'd suggest you get used to this concept now, because the longer you observe things the more apparent it will become.
Logic is not one of your strong points. You utterly fail to grasp the arguments at hand. You don’t even present well argued counter-points... just static and noise.
Once oil peaks a major source of energy will be being removed from the net energy balance of the global economy. This will need to be replaced by other sources that are also thought to be at risk of reducing in the near and medium term. The likely hood then is that we will be experiencing huge shortfalls in total energy. This will have a major impact on the cost of everything, including mining the lithium or platinum required of battery or fuel cell tractors. AND it will have a major impact on the cost of the energy input to make ‘em go.
The economics of such a situation are likely to be highly fluid. But given the incredible energy density of oil or gas derived fuels and its ease of refueling the chances that even in a world of 50% and higher drops in oil available, oil is quite liable to be a better economic prospect than competing for sufficient lithium to manufacture a tractor in a world desperate for it. Moreover rationing is most liable to give second preference to agriculture after air defense. The economics of which method of prime mover for agriculture is liable to depend heavily of geography, timeframe and many other factors, it will be complex and quite likely unexpected but oil derived fuels are just so damned useful that I really see them remaining competitive long into depletion world.
But one more time..... just to remind ourselves of the mind at work here:
Actually to the others reading this thread; the more I think of it the less impressed I am by battery and fuel cell powered farm tools. Farms are geographically restricted locations (although to be fair more so in the EU than US). This means that a fixed infrastructure is a far more acceptable solution than for something like a road truck. If electricity is a solution it is far more likely to be from high capacity cables strung around the farm with multiple plug points along a fields edge. The vehicle could simply plug into a cable at the edge of the field and drag a heavy duty cord behind it, eliminating the need for both recharging and heavy power supplies. Though it would need a banksman behind it ensuring it did not snag. You would have to figure that a couple of miles of copper cable would be cheaper than enough lithium batteries to move a combine or two.