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Global Food 2009

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 17 Feb 2009, 23:17:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')nd if people need it but can't pay, they're just up shit creek.

No money, no market.

Which is the situation with food - plenty of food, but plenty of starving poor people also. There's a need, but no market.

Yes, of course people need money to pay for it (usually). However, if there is a market for low-price items of a particular market, someone will usually come along and fill it (Think: "Low prices - always").

Some things you can get for free. Community newspapers, news on the internet, etc. come to mind. In cases of a total lack of money, there's always the barter system, which is really just another example of a market niche being filled.

Most episodes of starvation have political causes.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 18 Feb 2009, 01:39:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'M')ost episodes of starvation have political causes.
But not all. Some are caused by oil depletion.

And some are caused by aliens from outer space.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 18 Feb 2009, 01:42:01

U.N. says food production may fall 25 percent by 2050

snip: "Up to a quarter of global food production could be lost by 2050 due to the combined impact of climate change, land degradation and loss, water scarcity and species infestation, the United Nations said on Tuesday."

snip: "We have a very serious problem on our planet," he said. "Simply ratcheting up the fertilizer and pesticide-led production methods of the 20th century is unlikely to address the challenge."

Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/environm ... 6W20090217

Wish the site still had the ignore button.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
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Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 18 Feb 2009, 10:49:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Most episodes of starvation have political causes.



Yes, I've been saying that here for years.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby sparky » Wed 18 Feb 2009, 15:49:14

.

After the disastrous 2007 harvest , the UN had a big hoodhaa conference about " food security "
its conclusion was the world must produce 30% more food in twenty years.......
and advised its members countries to do so

Presto , abracadabra the UN has solved the problem :lol: :lol: :lol:

in december of this year by some rather abtruse calculation I reckon ,
the world population will drop below the one hectare of farming land per head

.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 18 Feb 2009, 17:22:04

Real "security" is something which can only be obtained by people living within the carrying capacity of their territories. The UN needs to be promoting that instead of demanding the world produce more food.



"It is only when others feel secure that we need not guard our environments, so that the very best preparation for security is to teach others the strategies, ethics, and practices of resource management, and to extend aid and education wherever possible." -Bill Mollison, "Permaculture: a designers manual" Chapter 14 Strategies for an Alternative Nation
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 12:26:38

One thing not mentioned in this thread and only touched on in the OP article is that food producers are taking it in the shorts this year.

Typically, fluid milk prices need to be 3x feed prices, currently they are about equal = huge herd reductions coming.

Beef and pork producers are both losing money on every head they sell = see above.

In the last couple of years investors bid up the price of corn & beans so farmers went out and borrowed big time for land and equipment - currently the price of corn won't cover the cost of inputs = see above.


Does anyone remember the reason for Farm Aid?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 13:22:28

Farmers have been taking it in the shorts for nearly a century in the US. It has for many years been promoted as positive to remove people from the land to save them from the "toil".

See "The Unsettling of America" by Wendell Berry
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 19:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')I've said it many times before, and I will say it again: You can't have your doom and eat it. If you get your "peak oil" doom and oil becomes scarce and expensive, you will be denied your "there are no electric farm tractors" doom. On the other hand, if you get your "there are no electric farm tractors" doom, that will be because you were denied your "peak oil" doom. I'd suggest you get used to this concept now, because the longer you observe things the more apparent it will become.
Logic is not one of your strong points. You utterly fail to grasp the arguments at hand. You don’t even present well argued counter-points... just static and noise.

Once oil peaks a major source of energy will be being removed from the net energy balance of the global economy. This will need to be replaced by other sources that are also thought to be at risk of reducing in the near and medium term. The likely hood then is that we will be experiencing huge shortfalls in total energy. This will have a major impact on the cost of everything, including mining the lithium or platinum required of battery or fuel cell tractors. AND it will have a major impact on the cost of the energy input to make ‘em go.

The economics of such a situation are likely to be highly fluid. But given the incredible energy density of oil or gas derived fuels and its ease of refueling the chances that even in a world of 50% and higher drops in oil available, oil is quite liable to be a better economic prospect than competing for sufficient lithium to manufacture a tractor in a world desperate for it. Moreover rationing is most liable to give second preference to agriculture after air defense. The economics of which method of prime mover for agriculture is liable to depend heavily of geography, timeframe and many other factors, it will be complex and quite likely unexpected but oil derived fuels are just so damned useful that I really see them remaining competitive long into depletion world.

But one more time..... just to remind ourselves of the mind at work here:

Actually to the others reading this thread; the more I think of it the less impressed I am by battery and fuel cell powered farm tools. Farms are geographically restricted locations (although to be fair more so in the EU than US). This means that a fixed infrastructure is a far more acceptable solution than for something like a road truck. If electricity is a solution it is far more likely to be from high capacity cables strung around the farm with multiple plug points along a fields edge. The vehicle could simply plug into a cable at the edge of the field and drag a heavy duty cord behind it, eliminating the need for both recharging and heavy power supplies. Though it would need a banksman behind it ensuring it did not snag. You would have to figure that a couple of miles of copper cable would be cheaper than enough lithium batteries to move a combine or two.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 19:58:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')ne thing not mentioned in this thread and only touched on in the OP article is that food producers are taking it in the shorts this year.

Typically, fluid milk prices need to be 3x feed prices, currently they are about equal = huge herd reductions coming.

Beef and pork producers are both losing money on every head they sell = see above.

In the last couple of years investors bid up the price of corn & beans so farmers went out and borrowed big time for land and equipment - currently the price of corn won't cover the cost of inputs = see above.


Does anyone remember the reason for Farm Aid?

That goes for some veg farmers as well, they bought fertilizers are the top of the market and will have to sell their corn and wheat at a lot less than it was selling last year. I have read there are significant risks of bankruptcies in the 'grain elevators' as well (sort of the warehouses and middlemen).

Reports have been filtering in that that combined with the lack of available credit is really really hammering many third world farmers.

Volatility is a far worse problem than high or low prices.....
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 20:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'F')armers have been taking it in the shorts for nearly a century in the US. It has for many years been promoted as positive to remove people from the land to save them from the "toil".

See "The Unsettling of America" by Wendell Berry

I am no fan of Marxism but their analysis would be along the lines of capital needing to "alienate the working class from there produce", part of this process would be to reduce the workers self sufficiency. Hence why liberal capitalist regimes have for so long favoured moving people of off the land and making them dependant on a wage. The process if very starkly illustrated in UK history with the 'closing of the commons', the widespread privatisation of commonly held lands to prevent them being used as public grazing. At the same time the destruction of the private owner operator weavers who ended having to work in the horror show of industrial Britain (the British did much the same thing in India as well with the work going too Manchester, Leeds etc).

The people doing it however, often rationalised this behaviour as Ludi says as improving the lot of the worker (cognitive dissonance anyone). One of the most famous figures in this kind of activity was one Charles Trevelyan. His highly aggressive promotion of free markets for wheat was a very important factor in the Irish potato famine which drove millions off the land, created vast pools of labour for Liverpool, Manchester and New York and made loads of British\ Irish landlords very wealthy. (also strongly implicated in the Highland potato famine and another major famine in India during his service out there)


This may seem a wander through a minor part of history, but our entire economic system was built on this and it is still happening today all over the world. And it is an important component of why we are here today.

On the plus side though loads of people eventually fought damned hard (from the Peterloo massacre and the Tollpuddle martyrs through to the eventual victory of a working class government in 1945) to turn the situation to the advantage of the majority US and UK workers over the past 60 years.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Pretorian » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 21:23:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'F')amines are almost always political in nature - that is, there is plenty of food available (plenty of food in the world for everyone in the world, at the present moment) but it doesn't get to the people who need it because of political reasons. :(



and this is good.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Feb 2009, 22:19:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'F')amines are almost always political in nature - that is, there is plenty of food available (plenty of food in the world for everyone in the world, at the present moment) but it doesn't get to the people who need it because of political reasons. :(



and this is good.

Do you care to explain your comment or is that just another piece of tripe thrown into the wind to embellish your persona?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Pretorian » Fri 20 Feb 2009, 00:54:19

If the food was distributed "properly" meaning that every schmoe gets his share of whatever crop/calories available worldwide, regardless of his personal input into the food production or global economy in general, this will not just bankrupt whomever is forced to " share" , but also will cause a popuiation explosion which will jeopardize lifes and wellbeing of whomever who decided to 'sponsor" them. There are no jobs and no food in Africa but every vagina has popped 6 kids on the average, imagine what would they do if they will get acess to unlimited free food.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby sparky » Fri 20 Feb 2009, 04:36:06

.
The ratio of food producers to food consumers is the critical number
before the farmng revolution of the 17th century it was 90% producers for 10% extra
this was tradesmen , priests the lords and such
this 1/10 ratio is found from china to medieval Europe , it was the classic level of agrarian taxation
often paid in kind

now in the western world it is typically 5% producers for 95% being feed off the land in cities
it make perfect sense to screw down %5 of the population
to have a better life style for 95 % , should it come to a vote there is no contest
it make perfect sense to subsidize farming on the margin of survival to have cheap plentiful food

it is only possible thanks to intensive farming of high yield races of crops and breeds with the manual drudge taken ( mostly ) by machinery

.
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Re: Global Food 2009

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 20 Feb 2009, 14:11:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')it make perfect sense to subsidize farming on the margin of survival to have cheap plentiful food

it is only possible thanks to intensive farming of high yield races of crops and breeds with the manual drudge taken ( mostly ) by machinery

.



And those who want to be a farmer be damned.
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