[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'I') think oil should be able to stealth it's way back over $60 before a lot of people pay any attention.
Secondly, I think appreciations will be welcomed in mainstream media as they will perceive it as a sign that the economy is recovering.

[dohboi]

Speaking of bailout, did anyone see this deliciously ridiculous story?

Adult Entertainment 'Stimulus' Package

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zero-point', ' ') However there are a few people who create "artificial wealth". That artificial wealth is called derivatives and they cause bubbles and bursting bubbles which create major economic crisis.

[bratticus]

Regarding "paper barrels"...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]BP Global Indicator Margin

... skip ...

For definition purposes, according to BP, "GIMs are simplified regional refining margin indicators based upon a generic refinery configuration, simplified product yields and a single 'marker' crude oil deemed appropriate for the region (e.g. Brent for Europe, WTS for the USGC and ANS for the USWC)."

... snip ...

[Barrie]

Hi,
This is my first post on this site and want to commend the designers/moderators and particpants on one of the best places for finding up to date info on energy, environment, economics as well as oil.

An interesting slide show by Matt. I think he is totally right about the impending price hike for oil. A large number of investment firms seem to agree with him too given the big disparity between prices for current and future oil contracts and the number of tankers floating about with oil scheduled to be delivered this time next year.

We are in the middle of the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression and will almost certainly exceed it, but this one is different. Suddenly we have oil supply constraints as a ceiling for any recovery. Hence we can expect prices to rise again sharply once the economy starts to recover. Given the size of the credit black hole this could still be some years off as the economy goes through its natural sprial of falling assett prices, bankruptcy and unemployment.

However, now that the US, UK and now Europian Governments are resorting to printing money to try to stem deflation, I think we shall see this money finding its way to scarce or critical commodities such as oil, water and, ultimately food. While prices may not reach those of 2008 for some time they will get high enough to snuff out any spark of a recovery. Add to this an eventual collapse in the US dollar (resulting from a loss of confidence in the US's ability to pay up combined with a decision by China to jump off the US reserve currency ship) and we have a potential explosion in US$ oil prices.

Thus, I think we are likely to see a bumpy ride over the next few years from bust to partial recovery to bust again until a) oil production and climate change together force us into a terminal decline or b) we get our act together enough to massively improve energy efficiency and developing renewable energy sources.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barrie', 'T')his is my first post on this site

[Barrie]

Crumbs Braticus, I'd completely forgotten about those posts I did years ago. Thanks for reminding me!

Maybe I should have said "this is my first post peak oil post on this site"!

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')t should be posted here as well in a few hours for those not wanting or able to stay up till 12:30 am.

[Armageddon]

Did they bring him on to make fun of him ?

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'I')t should be posted here as well in a few hours for those not wanting or able to stay up till 12:30 am.

[cualcrees]

Here's the link to the video:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1032835007&play=1

[Maddog78]

Good interview.
The host is worried people can't understand what they are talking about.
Isn't this a financial show?
Funny but sad.

[TheAntiDoomer]

did he appear to have been drinking tonight?

[truecougarblue]

Simmons couldn't be more right, and the two commodities gurus on the show agreed with him.

At the risk of talking my own book, and IMHO, I'd say that USO 65 strike Jan;10 calls are money in the bank at $.055/contract. Those contract could easily hit $5-10.

You'll need that extra cash when a loaf of bread costs $35.

[Voice_du_More]

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Aus ... ouston.pdf

Matthew

100 trillion dollars to replace aging oil industry infrastructure? Face facts, its time to get out of the oil business and become a pastor. This all by itself is an Armageddon. And going back and saying that $157 and $4 gas did not hurt the American economy is nonsense. Everything we are facing now has been brewing for a very long time. It all rises out of a certain worldview, true, but look, oil peaked in 2005 and under two years of still decent pricing no more oil (significant amounts that is) was online or in the development pipeline. The world will never produce more than 100 mbpd, not more than 90 mbpd, tar sands, and gas-to-liquids, it's all EROEI death-paste.

I admire you alot Matt, but you need to give 'em the straight junk. Tell them to sell it all and learn how to pray. No amount of money made will matter when 40,000 thousand refugees from Houston start banding together and staging attacks on the ship channel. Somali piracy, Nigerian unrest,... your own presentation tells the story.

It's Over!

In only a few short years the birth pangs of a completely new (old) world will be upon us and no modern nation will be able to stave off the change. They will try with all their tanks and guns and might, and that is going to make life on earth really suck for a while maybe a long while. The knock out punch has been delivered, now comes the slow-motion footage of the fall to the floor complete with slobber flying as head finally meets ground .

Sorry buddy. There will not be a million new petroleum geologists. And BTW, credit default swaps did not create the oil crash, a 7.8% decline in demand did that, and that was set up for us by Mr. Greedspan on behalf of his Master.

You gotta wake up people. You do not want to live near a major city when this goes down. The weak are not just going to be in danger, they are going to be on the menu.

As I must say to all now, there is safety in Jesus, trust in Him, call out to Him. I'm not kidding, if you can hear the sound of my voice, or if you find this post on a dilapidated Internet in some futurescape, hold on tight, He is coming soon.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'G')ood interview.
The host is worried people can't understand what they are talking about.
Isn't this a financial show?
Funny but sad.

[Ferretlover]

I'm going to post this thread and link the article for the purposes of revisiting it in 3-6 months.
Matt said on March 26: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29891917
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Matt Simmons', '&')quot;We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

[mos6507]

Matt better be careful about sticking his neck out again after what he said last time about $300 oil. If he racks up two or three bad calls he is going to be written off as a complete laughing stock if he isn't already.

[Gerben]

Just for the record: he expects an upward price shock.