[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the Bush administration has been filling at an average rate of nearly 250,000 barrels a day, is nearly full. By August, the market should have that much more supply of light, sweet crude available to it.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the Bush administration has been filling at an average rate of nearly 250,000 barrels a day, is nearly full. By August, the market should have that much more supply of light, sweet crude available to it.

[mididoctors]

volatility is the problem... the fear of losing out to a collapse will induce this very thing happening if there is a rush into the market place of commodity speculation.

this report is a contrast to the super-spike in that it sees a collapse in price way before some hike in price... however they both share an inability to accept certainty of oil depletion as a stabilizing factor,...

(it doesn't matter that oil is about to peak all that matters is we have an accurate as possible plot of where we are going as this breeds the certainty for sensible investment)

the superspike report by goldman sachs in a way is a response by people who think this outcome is more likely!

if you thought you were approaching the point were a global collapse is imminent as this report indicates it would be advantageous to create the perception that it was a bit way off..

this would allow you to sell large volumes of stock you felt were destined for a fall in a market that couldn't notice you dropping a shed load of stock that would indicate a a loss of confidence in normal times.

"to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost" (Depletion Protocol)

this activity by major financial institutions is a pre-emptive strike on the markets at profiteering on a false boom .. what is peculiar is it is an indication that the panic is on behalf of those behind this piece of trash.

al loss of nerve they have seem to have little idea in how to respond to.

what its effect is is far from clear.. oilcast's analysis is reasonable but restrained

you do get the feeling that opinions like Tim Evans are being trotted out as some counter to goldman sachs which may be a good thing independent of how clueless you think Tim Evans comments are!

VAST fortunes can be won on volatility and any force that encourages it should be held suspect especially if there analysis is particular short to medium term.. note ASPO is keen on pre-empting volatility thru transparencey and see it as a bad thing.

the potential damage the goldham sachs report could or may do is not to be underestimated.. not only would it destroy investment potential in alternatives by 'demand destruction" it also doesn't even acknowledge depletion in the long run and suggests that a supply cushion will form further eroding reality for investors..

frankly i would be willing to see this sort of behavior outlawed literally ...

to allow the agenda to be dictated by these f**ks would be a disaster and i hope this gambit will have the markets attention to their real face and have exposed them for playing so crude (pun?)a hand so early.

perhaps its a good thing they went for broke . you have to watch for this stuff as when people get nervous they may attempt to row off with the only lifeboat as it where and leave the rest of us high and dry.

it has nothing to do with ideologies of market based solutions or anything else... it is about integrity.. and what ever system is in place to handle human affairs it is going to require transparency and integrity. liars and cheats can go and take a flying f**k at the moon because as physical reality catch's up with the gobbdelgook (hidden in any system) they will become exposed for what they are.

rant... continued on page 64

Boris
london

[mortifiedpenguin]

Goldman Sachs had no business releasing that report and worsening an already volatile oil market. I think the recent rise in oil prices were caused by supply/demand fears (the report), not the actual supply/demand.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'G')oldman Sachs had no business releasing that report and worsening an already volatile oil market. I think the recent rise in oil prices were caused by supply/demand fears (the report), not the actual supply/demand.

[mortifiedpenguin]

I'm not saying they shouldn't have released the report. I'm saying they shouldn't have released the report now, when the oil market's already having problems.

[nth]

mortifiedpenguin,

what is funny is that Bush could've prevented a lot of this if he had followed his dad and Clinton's orders to release strategic petro reserves to control pricing.

well, it is too late now.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'm')ortifiedpenguin,

what is funny is that Bush could've prevented a lot of this if he had followed his dad and Clinton's orders to release strategic petro reserves to control pricing.

well, it is too late now.

[SidneyTawl]

I've read on this forum that the SOR buys "sour crude", not light sweet. Seems to me if thats true, it has nothing to do with the price of gas at the pump.

That oil even though its our "Stratic Oil Reserve" would have been available on the open market. Doesn't mean it goes to our refineries, and if it is then refineries in the US for sour crude are like good bass players for a band (rare as hounds teeth).

As for the price we pay, seems to me we are getting a good deal considering the state of the market. Sour crude oil is readily available and is not selling at a premium as Light Sweet.

Don't see how adding more sour crude to the market would have effected the oil markets. However I am sure the news of such an event would have lowered prices perhaps. If it did and the light sweet market reacted to that in the US, what would that mean. Thats an interesting thought.

Is the SOR sour crude only or is there a percentage.

[nth]

Historically, Presidents just announce 10mb release.
We are not talking about systematic releases.
Anyways, this year's price rise is not controllable by this method. It was last year's and prior years increases could have.

[threadbear]

Face it, Peak oil could be a complete fabricated myth that appeals to the sensitivities of environmentalists, AND big oil, and Opec countries. It also appeals to common sense. The number one factor here is timing. Demand destruction is bound to occur in China, a country that is imitating many of the mistakes made by the US prior to the collapse of '29. The US is going to face it's own massive downturn, very shortly.

Meanwhile, all of this money has been pulled out of the US and is circulating around the globe, buying up privatized natural resources. Of course it's in the best interests of these people to generate a hell of a lot of rumour about peak oil, then tip toe it into the mainstream, forcing prices sky high. If REAL peak oil happens to coincide with this phenomenon---fine. But we could be set up for a classic pump and dump, a couple of decades before the real peak sets in.

Be very suspicious.

[EnemyCombatant]

In addition to what threadbear says, PO could be a scam to justify hegemony and conquest.

I've looked at all sides of the equation, and the facts come down on the side of PO being a reality in the near future.

We could be wrong, but threadbear is right. We need to keep our minds open to PO being a ruse. As some might say the 'war on terrorism' is a ruse to justify war on Iraq while our borders are wide open.

AFAIK, no matter what the conspiracy may or may not be. We the people will be the victims.

[Ebyss]

Indeed, we could all be way off...

But why go to war in Iraq knowing there is no problem with oil?

[threadbear]

Why go into Iraq, knowing there was no problem with oil? --Ebyss

To help create one. Potential scarcity, will drive prices way up. There doesn't even have to be any actual scarcity, for people to get into that mind set.

I'm just a little suspicious of any idea that has such broad based appeal among interest groups with opposing sets of values and sensitivities.

Bear in mind, I'm open to any number of scenarios and not entirely wedded to this one, but I think we should be on the watch for red flags signalling this might be what's going on.

[goldmund52]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'I') think is in part right in particular about speculation. For instance, concerning Hedge funds:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-commercials, which primarily consist of hedge funds, bought 3,378 contracts of crude futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Non-commercials were net long 112,002 contracts of crude futures and options as of Mar 29, the highest long position since June 1, according to the Commitments of Traders report. Despite the additional purchases made by non-commercials crude moved sideways during the reporting period, range bound between $52.50-$55.50/bbl. Non-commercials sold 1,575 contracts of unleaded gasoline futures and options, leaving them net long 39,093 lots. Non-commercials sold 2,833 contracts of heating oil futures and options, leaving them net long 5,809 lots.

[threadbear]

That's an interesting way of looking at it Goldmund. On the other hand this smart money that is hedging against the price of oil going up could be doing so because they smell a rat.

[goldmund52]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')hat's an interesting way of looking at it Goldmund. On the other hand this smart money that is hedging against the price of oil going up could be doing so because they smell a rat.

[threadbear]

I'm not a stock market whiz, but I do get the impression that market bears, though often correct, would be complete suckers for a manipulation whose effects would closely mimic what would occur as the consequense of a natural event, like peak oil. I'm bearish, myself, and am trying to discount my own bias when I analyse situations like this.

The thing about peak oil is intuition and common sense tell a sand person, it's correct. It's just the timing that leaves me a little puzzled.

[nth]

hrm... interesting perspectives.

A few things I will like to point out. Big US oil companies are losing out in the bid for new reserves. European and other non US companies are leading the charge in securing new oil exploration and oil reserves. The Big oil companies are having problems growing the amount of oil reserves they get per year.

As for the market speculators, hedge funds are probably the true speculators. They come in with computer models that require them to hedge. Meaning if they decide the market is going up, they will purchase buy and sell contracts. The prices are different and they make their money on the price differences. They seldom have total exposure like purchasing a buy contract and not hedge against it.

As for market investors, major investment houses not only purchase buy/sell contracts, but they actually took delivery of oil!! That should raise flags that they are actually getting into the business of oil. Something is amiss when they take physical inventories of oil. They lease trucks and tankers to take delivery of oil they purchased. They lease warehouses and storage tanks to fill with oil.

To me, the investing houses taking delivery of oil means they know the market will go up and stay up. Or else, why take physical delivery and not just keep it as paper trades?

[goldmund52]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')'m not a stock market whiz, but I do get the impression that market bears, though often correct, would be complete suckers for a manipulation whose effects would closely mimic what would occur as the consequense of a natural event, like peak oil. I'm bearish, myself, and am trying to discount my own bias when I analyse situations like this.

The thing about peak oil is intuition and common sense tell a sand person, it's correct. It's just the timing that leaves me a little puzzled.