[AirlinePilot]

When you go back in history and see how technology evolved "the next best thing", you have to be really careful about the context.

One thing that denialists and debunkers of PO keep pointing at is this very phenomenon. The problem with it almost universally is that most of the technologic advancements with regard to energy use in the last century have been about efficiency, NOT NEW SOURCES.

We have nothing on the near term horizon which can possibly equate to the cost/availability and ease of use that oil displays. We continue to cling to BAU even in the face of obvious declines or at the very least a plateauing of production. Without something major breaking onto the scene very soon now, we just wont have the time to develop some new scenario for powering our growing ICE/Crude burning lifestyle.

So the real challenge for folks who think technology will save us is to figure out how, on a very large scale, and do it very quickly. I mean VERY quickly. I dont think its impossible, but after studying this issue for the last few years, I believe we are now out of time. The coming economic collapse will preclude any real progress towards anything other than a very large and nasty global power down.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('flatline', 'I') have been leaning towards agreeing with peak oil estimates the last few months, and reading further about it. However I just read an article by a man I respect for his opinions/thoughts, Gwynne Dyer. He states that technology should be the factor that eliminates the need for oil dependance. He cites reference to the horse & buggy use in the late 19th century, and how predictions by many saw a lack of horses, pile up of horse manure in the streets, as well as other negative elements associated with its usage were off the mark with the creation of the automobile 2 or 3 decades later. It's a valid point, however I don't neccessarily equate the catestrophic nature of population demands in 1895 on the same level as 2005. So I don't know what to think here. Would like you know everyone's opionion.

Gwynne Dyer: 'Peak oil' gloom probably just a load of horse manure

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/ ... d=10549895

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e cites reference to the horse & buggy use in the late 19th century, and how predictions by many saw a lack of horses, pile up of horse manure in the streets, as well as other negative elements associated with its usage were off the mark with the creation of the automobile 2 or 3 decades later.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem with it almost universally is that most of the technologic advancements with regard to energy use in the last century have been about efficiency, NOT NEW SOURCES.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'T')his is the worst arguement ever. Why is it they keep pointing to the past?

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '
')Unless we have some incredible breakthroughs in the creation of cheap energy there is nothing to say we wont be going back to animal power and cart for example over a 100 year time frame for example.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here is no collection of new energy sources that match petroleum for accessibility, quality, quantity, convenience, and energy content.

[Revi]

I would like to be as optimistic as this guy, but I don't see too many people who even know what alternative energy is around here. It works great in our household, and saves us a lot of money, but most people don't even want to hear about it.

If we can get past the tipping point we can change to the new low energy, alternative energy economy, no problem.

The future is green.

[Serial_Worrier]

It's alright. Just keeping spending at big-box retailers on the installment plan. Harry Reid and Barack Obama will thank you.

[threadbear]

I totally agree that oil isn't going to be a big issue. The issues are going to be climate change, water deficits, arable land. Humans have to get a grip on how much they actually need versus want, and industrial society has to drastically reduce it's footprint, while engaging with the third world to help shrink population, through education.

[Plantagenet]

Gwynne Dyer sounds like the kind of person who would believe Obama's promise to make the US energy independent in 10 years by growing ever more corn for ethanol and other technological breakthroughs.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have never run an industrial infrastructure (even a small village) with 'alternative' energies, and so there is little evidence we could operate a large city, much less a major war, on groovy solar power. Twisted Evil

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'F')rance runs the vast majority of their country on nuclear, which is an alternative to fossil fuels for electricity generation.

[mgibbons19]

My own gut reaction is about 80% agreeing with the other posters here. Focusing on the lack of new SOURCES of fuel in discussing tech solutions to these problems. There are other obstacles too. Scalability, depleted agriculture, and so on. There really appears to be no substitute for oil.

But alas, I am a little more reticent than some of the other posters here. Apparently others here have the ability to see the future and know beforehand what will and will not work.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here is no collection of new energy sources that match petroleum for accessibility, quality, quantity, convenience, and energy content.

[joewp]

People who think there's other "sources" of energy are misled. There's ultimately only one meaningful source of energy on this planet. Without it the earth would be a cold, dead rock floating in space. That energy source is the Sun. All the so-called "alternatives" are really just secondary conversions of solar energy striking the planet. There is no "source" of energy that will allow humanity to exceed the annual solar input of energy. Even solar panels and wind turbines need massive amounts of fossil fuels to be made and kept in operation. Our current lifestyle is ending, no matter how much some may kick and scream.

Humans lived within the the solar energy budget for millennium, at much smaller population levels. When the saved solar energy of fossil fuels is exhausted, we will return to those previous population levels(more likely much mower levels) and return to the lower mobility that prevailed 150 years ago. This is a fact. No wailing and gnashing of teeth will change this fact.

People like Gwynne Dyer are just in the denial stage of grief over the demise of their cushy fossil fueled lifestyle. Either they'll understand one day and prepare, or they'll end up as fertilizer on my permaculture garden. I actually prefer the latter.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'F')rance runs the vast majority of their country on nuclear, which is an alternative to fossil fuels for electricity generation.

[outcast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')All the so-called "alternatives" are really just secondary conversions of solar energy striking the planet.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'E')ven solar panels and wind turbines need massive amounts of fossil fuels to be made and kept in operation.