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what is your call on bottom for crude ??

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby oilluber » Thu 25 Dec 2008, 22:20:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')t doesn't take much gasoline to walk up to your local soup kitchen or food pantry.


this explains the glut in gasoline inventories this week.
I guess food stamps budget should be increased by OBAMA
next year, it is a great way to stimulate the economy.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 01:03:06

I don't think the issue is about the terminal bottom, but about what the level will go to under summer driving season conditions. Will demand pick up at the end of spring? Is America ready to stop suckling at the oil teet? Can America stop? What will happen to the rest of the world in either case?
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby kmann » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 01:21:50

My call for bottom would be about right where it is now. It will probably be stagnant and stay around 35 to 45 for the next 6 months or so before doing a slow climb.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 01:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'M')y call for bottom would be about right where it is now. It will probably be stagnant and stay around 35 to 45 for the next 6 months or so before doing a slow climb.


kmann ... sorry .... Oil will slide to $12/bbl in 2009. ... sorry ...
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby the48thronin » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 17:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', '
')
... sorry .... Oil will slide to $12/bbl in 2009. ... sorry ...


OK so far you and I are calling 12$.

Let's see if we have the same reason to think so.

The Sauds have misunderstood the foundations of our society so long I have to wonder why they are (having gone to our universities to learn how to wage war against us) such slow learners.

The reality from our side will look mostly like economic collapse leading to demand loss. From their side it will be a change from destruction of alternative competition to the reality of desperate pumping to maintain their own shaky control on the local mobs of dissidents.

Your idea of why?
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby cat » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 20:55:57

I think that we have come close to hitting bottom for a while anyway. Mostly because the dollar is set to fall again, and because it sounds as if Opec nations are really going to cut production. Long term anything can happen at this point.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby ki11ercane » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 21:08:53

Still think we'll see 1998 non adjusted inflation amounts of $10.00 a barrel, or $20.00 adjusted for inflation if deflation doesn't balance things out.

From $30.00 to $42.00 back down to $36.00. As soon as inventories start to rise again after the cut, prices will go down. Another cut, prices will spike then go down again, going down lower.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby oilluber » Sat 27 Dec 2008, 13:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', 'S')till think we'll see 1998 non adjusted inflation amounts of $10.00 a barrel, or $20.00 adjusted for inflation if deflation doesn't balance things out.

From $30.00 to $42.00 back down to $36.00. As soon as inventories start to rise again after the cut, prices will go down. Another cut, prices will spike then go down again, going down lower.


wow, a 10 buck call on crude,,,, there is almost no producer, except
in war torn places that can make any money at that.
all the oil fields would shut down, hire a security guard, lay off
everybody else and bide time.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sat 27 Dec 2008, 18:35:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilluber', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', 'S')till think we'll see 1998 non adjusted inflation amounts of $10.00 a barrel, or $20.00 adjusted for inflation if deflation doesn't balance things out.

From $30.00 to $42.00 back down to $36.00. As soon as inventories start to rise again after the cut, prices will go down. Another cut, prices will spike then go down again, going down lower.


wow, a 10 buck call on crude,,,, there is almost no producer, except
in war torn places that can make any money at that.
all the oil fields would shut down, hire a security guard, lay off
everybody else and bide time.


Crude was $9.30 in February 1998. The U.S. dollar was juiced up globally. There were nowhere near the tar sands projects in Canada at the time. Again as I have said before the world has seen sub $10.00 oil before, and it was not in turmoil, and we were not in a recession in 1998 when this happened. Even in 1991 when there WAS a recession going on oil averaged $20.16 a barrel. Oil should have been $60.00 a barrel in 1998. (adjusted for inflation and no recession) but it was not. When times were tough, oil cost more to buy than it did 8 years later. I know a lot has changed in 10 years, and I am not going to refute that. Even with all that has happened in the oil industry, China, India, and the U.S., if you adjust oil for inflation in a healthy economy, you should see only $20.00 average for 2009. The reality is if deflation continues to happen, now globally and not locally, (ie. North American alone), $10.00 oil in 2009 is a stark reality. The OPEC countries and the Sauds can afford to sell it for $3.00 a barrel if they have to. With oil only costing them $2.00 a barrel to produce, they will still be making billions annually instead of several billions. But they will still make money. Russia, Canada, and Brazil, not so much.

This is just my opinion. I am not an economist nor an expert, but I can read and compare charts. $148.00 oil was just not sustainable in 2008. Maybe 2048, but not 2008.

The problem I think with predicting oil prices is too much wobbling between not enough and too much. Mix in a sharty economy which will probably take 10 years to recover to pre 2008 levels, or never recover at all. Couple in all the new "pumping" (not discoveries OF2, they are useless unless oil is flowing out of them) at the $2.00 production level (which is non-existent in 90% of the oil producing world) with the "forced" reduction of consumption (ie. bad economy) and the eco-geek attempt to reduce consumption (ie. massive solar, wind, nuke and electric) oil prices are really HARD to predict.

Again, I am waiting for the real economists here to chime in. Like my posts here, this is all conjecture. I am the first to admit it. I know nothing!
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby niknak » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 00:28:59

The lower the better.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 01:05:36

It's bottomed. It's all up from here, but ever so slowly, barring global military conflicts in the Middle East. So I guess it'll go screaming up from here on in. Watch Israel and Iran. Watch the value of the dollar against other currencies and gold.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby oilluber » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 22:33:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')t's bottomed. It's all up from here, but ever so slowly, barring global military conflicts in the Middle East. So I guess it'll go screaming up from here on in. Watch Israel and Iran. Watch the value of the dollar against other currencies and gold.


nearly bottomed, I still think we see a dip to 30, or just under in
09. But the market is behaving like we are getting closer to the bottom. At 30, all these E & P companies in North America would go
belly up.
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Tue 30 Dec 2008, 03:36:10

We already hit bottom at $32/ barrel a few days back.

Since then, we have switched over to the January futures.

The February futures are coming up. The switch-over to the next month's futures happens around the 15th of each month.

That is the time, sometime in February, when the refineries switch from the winter blends of gasoline to the summer blends in anticipation of the summer driving season. This puts a crimp on supply.

In addition, to people being self-indulgent and short-sided and wedded to driving so that they continue to drive cars during a recession, there also a lot of things that can go wrong.

One of these that is well known are endemic political and military conflicts in oil-producing and adjacent areas. The dust-up in Gaza has brought the oil futures price up over $40/barrel for example.

g
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Re: what is your call on bottom for crude ??

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 31 Dec 2008, 17:56:22

Oil up a few bucks today. Risk premium due to international events. If Gaza and Israel fiasco fizzles out, oil goes sideways. It looks like this could be the clusterf**** in the making, the likes of which none of us have EVER seen. Seriously, Obama or no Obama, if I had draft age kids I'd be researching international bugouts.
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