[frankthetank]

I've always wondered why these 2 reports can be so different. Heres an overview from Marketwatch of both of these reports.

LINK

Looks like reporting to EIA is the law, while API isn't. API has been around since 1929, EIA reporting since 1979.

Who do you believe?

[pip]

It should be noted that Valero, the soon to be largest US refiner, does not report to the API.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')t any rate, the IEA has now jumped on the bandwagon too, at least for 2008.

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]IEA Says Oil Use to Fall for First Year Since 1983
By Grant Smith

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 28 nations, said global oil demand will contract this year for the first time since 1983 and cut its outlook for 2009.

Consumption worldwide will shrink in 2008 by 200,000 barrels a day, or 0.2 percent, the IEA said in a monthly report today. The reduction in demand is concentrated in developed economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, where oil use will tumble 3.3 percent. Next year’s growth may be wiped out if the economic slump deepens, the agency said.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'M')y focus is solely on the 2008 figures in the EIA report I've linked to which clearly shows that most of the demand destruction for that year has already been.

[ki11ercane]

200,000 barrels per day drop in consumption = 2.88 minutes less oil consumption per day or 17.52 hours for the year, or about 3/4 of a day DROP IN CONSUMPTION! Does that take into consideration there was 366 days this year vs. 365? If so, then we're in the plus and our consumption drop has been wiped out because of the leap year in 2008! OMG man!

Are you actually saying this is a MEANINGFUL DECLINE? Please wake me up when the decimal moves a little more to the right please, maybe by like 2 spots? A drop in under 3 less minutes of consumption globally PER DAY does not compare to our current economic contraction that is being measured in double digits.

Oilfinder2, you're trying to make up the hype just like the Doomers are.

[copious.abundance]

The fact that it has dropped (or, is about to drop) for the first time since 1983 is significant. That's 25 straight years of increases come to an end.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '2')00,000 barrels per day drop in consumption = 2.88 minutes less oil consumption per day or 17.52 hours for the year, or about 3/4 of a day DROP IN CONSUMPTION! Does that take into consideration there was 366 days this year vs. 365? If so, then we're in the plus and our consumption drop has been wiped out because of the leap year in 2008! OMG man!

Are you actually saying this is a MEANINGFUL DECLINE? Please wake me up when the decimal moves a little more to the right please, maybe by like 2 spots? A drop in under 3 less minutes of consumption globally PER DAY does not compare to our current economic contraction that is being measured in double digits.

Oilfinder2, you're trying to make up the hype just like the Doomers are.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'M')y focus is solely on the 2008 figures in the EIA report I've linked to which clearly shows that most of the demand destruction for that year has already been.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he fact that it has dropped (or, is about to drop) for the first time since 1983 is significant. That's 25 straight years of increases come to an end.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he fact that it has dropped (or, is about to drop) for the first time since 1983 is significant. That's 25 straight years of increases come to an end.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he fact that it has dropped (or, is about to drop) for the first time since 1983 is significant. That's 25 straight years of increases come to an end.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'H')ow so if oil is set to peak/has peaked?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'H')ow so if oil is set to peak/has peaked?

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'D')on't worry it will go to 20$ a barrel, for years maybe. Meanwhile the oil industry will rust.

[horsedrawn]

I recently found the link to the EIA site. and upon looking at the supply and cosumtion side see that we are still useing more than we are producing. but what i am unable to figure out is? on the invetory side it show Dec. to be at 994million barrels Of comercial inventory. But
on wednesdays supply figure they are showing. 320.8 million barrels.
so any body in the know as to the difference in the comercial inventory,as to the weekly reported inventory?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')No I don't hold an opinion one way or the other about whether oil has already peaked, but supply appears to have plateaued - sustained high prices have not done anything to bring on higher production, and only super-cornucopians think that oil won't peak for another 50 years.

[Gazzatrone]

Oil at $46 pb.

I'll hold on that oil demand for 2009. Not wanting to be cynical but you can throw all the respected opinion and statistics around as much as you like, but we are living in a world economically different to that of the 80's even the 90's, and peoples economic activities are different. Sure people are having to tighten their belts, but when they see something going for next to nothing (or similar to the good ole days), you can bet the cash registers in the forecourts will be Kaching-chinging. Whether you accept it or not, we are a society that exists only to derive pleasure from spending, and as oil gives us a false sense of liberation and freedom, you can expect the general populous to want their fix. Signs of Cold Turkey started to happen this Summer with oil at $150, but at $46!!!!!

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')No I don't hold an opinion one way or the other about whether oil has already peaked, but supply appears to have plateaued - sustained high prices have not done anything to bring on higher production, and only super-cornucopians think that oil won't peak for another 50 years.

[copious.abundance]

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. Oil Consumption Flat Through 2030, EIA Predicts
By Tina Seeley

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil consumption will be flat through 2030, as the use of biofuels, rising oil prices and new car efficiency standards temper demand for petroleum, the Energy Information Administration said.

The last 20 years “has been a history of rising oil use,” Howard Gruenspecht, acting head of the agency, part of the U.S. Energy Department, said in a speech today in Washington. The new outlook “projects a break in this trend, with no appreciable growth in oil consumption between now and 2030 and biofuels being all of the growth in liquids.”

Use of liquid fuels, including biofuels, will grow by 1 million barrels a day between 2007 and 2030, the agency said in its Annual Energy Outlook. Ethanol consumption will increase to 12.2 billion gallons, and cellulosic ethanol feedstocks will reach 12.6 billion gallons by 2030, EIA says.

[...]

[TheDude]

Of course.

More biofuels is in line with what the New Boss will expect, of course.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith overall liquid fuel demand in the AEO2009 reference case growing by only 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030, increased use of domestically-produced biofuels, and rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices, the net import share of total liquids supplied, including biofuels, declines from 58 percent in 2007 to less than 40 percent in 2025 before increasing to 41 percent in 2030 (Figure 1).