by ReverseEngineer » Mon 08 Dec 2008, 13:37:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nder normal circumstances, such massive injections of liquidity would carry the risk of inflation. But inflation isn't a fear right now because banks are holding on to their money, Croft said.
This is not true at all. Banks are not holding onto the funny money being passed to them, they are using it to deleverage. In other words, pay off their own debts. It would only show up in the economy once those assets were sold again, but since most of the debts are in residential and commercial mortgages which aren't selling, the money is disappearing into a black hole. It does keep these banks solvent though.
It would only be after the deleveraging process was finished that banks might start to take the gobs of money being thrown at them and try to loan it out to people to buy the foreclosed homes and shopping malls. However, since most folks by that time will be unemployed, they won't be very good credit risks.
The only way I can see that hyperinflation takes place is when the money gets directly distributed out to the consumer. This can happen either thru more extensive Stimulus or thru Make Work projects. As long as the Funny Money is just being used to pay off the debts of the banks, it won't make its way out into the general economy. They have too much debt, much of which isn't even known yet in the CDS market.
The main problem with the naked printing comes from dollar devaluation on the debt of the foreign banks. The more that gets printed, the less their dollar holdings are worth. This makes them insolvent. It will take a while to play out.
Reverse Engineer