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The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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What will you cut back on to compensate for higher energy prices?

Travel
95
No votes
Eating out/Entertainment
89
No votes
Groceries
2
No votes
Purchases of capital goods
33
No votes
Tech Toys: Cell phones, cable TV, etc.
77
No votes
Investments
10
No votes
Recreation
18
No votes
 
Total votes : 324

Unread postby ShawnAvery » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 06:51:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'F')olks. Lety's try to stay on topic. We have all kinds of threads on the long-term effects of peak oil. This thread is about The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil. We have started up the inflationary hill already. What will you cut out of your budget to compensate for high energy prices? What are you seeing around you? What are you hearing?


i posted my bigass long shpiel for a reason, and i dont think any of the effects i have described will be 'long-term.' im seriously seeing signs of major systemic collapse everywhere now. they just fired half the people where i work(the whole customer service department, being outsourced of course). the stuff i described i see happening within a year from now.

the way i see it, within 6 months gasoline prices will rise over $3.00 as a general faith in 'sharing' will disappear. common courtesy has already all but vanished, and being in the middle of the city its easy to get a general sense of what people think about things. i dont catch any flak when talking about peak anymore. i just explain the depletion curve. i DONT HAVE TO bring it up. i just mention it when people bitch about gas prices. most people i speak with are in the 'we will think of something' camp.. but im happy im at least getting the word out. ive talked to tons of people about it, and nobody doubts the plausability of it. it actually IS rather obvious. takes me 30 seconds to explain it, then i tell them to google it. im past caring if people care or not. productions BEEN going down. technically, weve already hit it, until it bothers to rise again.

cutting your budget? 'compensating' for energy prices? i actually find that hilarious. i dont have the money to compensate. people who have 'discretionary' income are spoiled, wether they realize it or not. if i actually HAD to drive to get things done i would change that ASAP. its ALREADY uneconomical for me to drive. but i do it to save that our or so a day. it doesnt take a dramatic change in economic figures for dramatic changes to happen in the real world if you happen to factor in demographics, human psychology, and wealth distribution.

the people who are freaking out most are the people who are looking at all this stuff in tandem, the people who live in denser populated areas... the younger people who dont have years of equity behind them... and the people in charge of corporate america, whos numbers are so in the red they cant help but be pissed off all the time.

people are ALREADY having all this financial trouble but cant seem to figure out why. like i said, im always happy to explain it all.

hell, im already freaking out, cuz me and my big mouth... where are people going to go when they cant cut it themselves anymore? my place! i got all the MREs!!

some straw will break the camels back within the year, and im sure that once that shit breaks everything i said in my previous post will happen very quickly. sure, downhill depletion curve is manageable, yeah theres at least some kind of semblance of order to it. you at least know its going down.

peoples minds arent curves tho, they are switches. you know, that whole duality thing. either they can make it, or they cant. either they care for the future, or they care about today. they either work together to find solutions, or they beat eachother up fighting over scraps. and they change their minds constantly.

we had a meeting today at work among we management types, everyone looking already concerned about the future prospects of working there. 2 are already getting new jobs, a 3rd is working on it. then everyone started bitching about their pay. THEN people started whining about the politics of it all, about how those in charge really dont give a shit about people losing their jobs, and how pay is not distributed according to ability at all etc etc..

and then the clincher. i got to be the one to mention that its not just happening at one company. its happening nearly across the board. mergers and acquisitions and outsourcing are EVERYWHERE. i actually started this conversation the other day, ill try and piece it together sometime and post it.. but it was a list of mergers that have happened lately, and the different places that are outsourcing. it literally made me sick. its the newest trend!

dude, mcdonalds is outsourcing the people that they pay MINIMUM WAGE to take drive thru orders. capital is fleeing the country RIGHT NOW.

our biggest industry is accounting fraud. our biggest export is deficits, and our military just cant seem to stop invading other countries.

now let me think about that question that you asked.. 'what will you cut out of your budget to compensate for high energy prices?' well if i was another country, id cut out the united states.

as for me.. well.. im actually in the process of maxing my credit cards, establishing a few reliable ways out of the city, deciding who i care about enough to help prepare, and buying rations and supplies.

worrying about your budget when the economy is due to crash is like worrying about a cavity when all your teeth are about to be pulled.

im not worried about the economy. im worried about my physical safety, and the physical safety of those i care about.

the optimist/pessimist scenario is a bit different now.

optimists are worrying about balancing their budget. realists are worrying about personal safety. pessimists are already in the hills with guns forming groups to fight the coming 'police state.'

wanna know whos doing nothing? the stupid people who dont read and believe everything they see on tv. the ones in denial. the dangerous ones.

the ones who will go psychotic when gas hits 6.00 a gallon.

and ya know what? if it upsets any of you that i just did a bit of derailing of the thread, then consider it preparation for when your sense of reality is derailed by how most people react to crisis.

then like go watch some riot footage or something.

its oil 'crash,' not oil fender bender. crashes happen in a split second, complicated systems simply stop working.

things wont get harder, they will stop. then they will start again.. then they will stop. and so on and so on..
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Unread postby Pops » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 08:33:50

Funny, that’s 2 threads in a row I’ve read ‘if you don’t like what I’m saying or how I’m saying it, you’re really gonna hate what comes next.’
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 09:19:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShawnAvery', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
peoples minds arent curves..., they are switches. .


A great description, I'm stealing it. Thanks.
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Unread postby khebab » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 10:15:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'T')his is what Goldman Sachs thinks of the near term effects:

Goldman Sachs believes that oil markets may have entered the early stages of a "super spike" period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return. Firm says resilient demand has caused them to revise up their super-spike range to $50-$105 per bbl from $50-$80 per bbl, and they see as much as 80% total return upside to super spike-adjusted peak values, and are comfortable recommending that investors add to positions in the sector.


This report from Goldman Sachs will feed the popular belief that hardcore speculation is behind the oil price surge. Some comments last week from Bush about some pension funds moving to the oil market let me think that politicians will try first to legislate in order to restrain speculation instead of dealing with the real hot issue: out of control demand.
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Unread postby venky » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 14:24:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'F')olks. Lety's try to stay on topic. We have all kinds of threads on the long-term effects of peak oil. This thread is about The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil. We have started up the inflationary hill already. What will you cut out of your budget to compensate for high energy prices? What are you seeing around you? What are you hearing?



If peak oil triggers the worst economic recession since 1929, I dont see how it can be kept from coming out into the mainstream. Its already on the edges of the mainstream, with articles in several prominent media outlets. Once accepted by the public at large any Government will (it will have no choice) begin a massive program in energy conservation and in alternate enery research. Also with unemployment skyrocketing probably rising to greater than 25% in a very short time, the government will probably order through a mixture of coercion and economic help to the poor and unemployed. The system in place will probably resemble a form of Socialism far more extreme than anything that exists in the world today besides perhaps Cuba.

On a positive note, Cuba has dealt with Peak Oil; perhaps we could too.
On tyranny vs chaos, I would choose tyranny any time.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 17:03:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'F')olks. Lety's try to stay on topic. We have all kinds of threads on the long-term effects of peak oil. This thread is about The Near Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil. We have started up the inflationary hill already. What will you cut out of your budget to compensate for high energy prices? What are you seeing around you? What are you hearing?



If peak oil triggers the worst economic recession since 1929, I dont see how it can be kept from coming out into the mainstream. Its already on the edges of the mainstream, with articles in several prominent media outlets. Once accepted by the public at large any Government will (it will have no choice) begin a massive program in energy conservation and in alternate enery research. Also with unemployment skyrocketing probably rising to greater than 25% in a very short time, the government will probably order through a mixture of coercion and economic help to the poor and unemployed. The system in place will probably resemble a form of Socialism far more extreme than anything that exists in the world today besides perhaps Cuba.

On a positive note, Cuba has dealt with Peak Oil; perhaps we could too.
On tyranny vs chaos, I would choose tyranny any time.


Let me try this again. What will you cut out of your budget to compensate for high energy prices tomorrow and in the weeks ahead? What are you seeing around you? What are you hearing?

Let's forget what you think will happen down the road, and focus on what you are going to do right now as the price of gas goes through the ceiling, to be soon followed by rising commodity prices. Obviously, people are going to react and change their spending habits to deal with this rise. In this thread, I am trying to get a handle on what those near terms impacts will be by soliciting everyone's imput.

Already we are seeing only 110,000 new jobs last month when the pundits all agreed there would be a 225,000 increase.
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Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia_old » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 17:47:36

I will try to steer this back on topic.

Currently, I go to school in the city and am able to use the suburban commuter trains to get to class every morning. Now, depending on what financial aid or scholarships I receive, I might be transferring to a school the same distance from home, but not accessible by mass transit. I'm actually considering staying in a dorm on campus and coming home on the weekends, instead of making the 20 min commute everyday.
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Unread postby RiverRat » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 18:09:51

It’s pretty simple…

Discretionary spending is cut back (ie … magazine subscriptions, movie rentals, eating out, etc)

As times toughen … basic budget is trimmed (ie … cell phone plans reduced, no a/c in the summer, temp turned down in the winter, cut out extravagant vacations)

When TSHTF … cut off large 401k and IRA contributions, all frivolous spending will cease and budget will entail only the bare necessities
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Unread postby sventvkg » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 09:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', '
')Let me try this again. What will you cut out of your budget to compensate for high energy prices tomorrow and in the weeks ahead? What are you seeing around you? What are you hearing?

Let's forget what you think will happen down the road, and focus on what you are going to do right now as the price of gas goes through the ceiling, to be soon followed by rising commodity prices. Obviously, people are going to react and change their spending habits to deal with this rise. In this thread, I am trying to get a handle on what those near terms impacts will be by soliciting everyone's imput.

Already we are seeing only 110,000 new jobs last month when the pundits all agreed there would be a 225,000 increase.



Sorry Monte...
I will cut down on travel as much as possible although I have to travel for my career a great deal..At my expense no less...I guess I'll still do it as long as it's financially feasable.

As far as what I'm seeing around me, Nothing much..Just the beginning os grumbling about the economy tied to the price of oil. The a great awaking is barely in the infantile stages of happening. There is muted talk of getting rid of the SUV's and going to VW TDI vehicals. Mostly from me but others are starting to agree.

If prices go through the roof I'll stop paying for all bills and debts and focus on only the necessities. My only debts are a payment for my Blazer SUV that I'm so upside down in, that it's impossible to get rid of short of committing a crime to do it, Car insurance, Cell bills, Internet, although I will NEVER get rid of that-Sorry..I need to stay connected..And food costs. We'll go down to the bare necessities as far as food if need be.

So basically if it goes down like you think Monte, I basically think we are SCREWED!....It's all over and there will be food riots and a breakdown of our system. I do not believe the government wants to get us out of it, let alone could. I SEE ONLY DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM. :( :x
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Unread postby reggieUK » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 09:43:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Perhaps the opportunities are endless, but so is the population growth. I recently read that two physicists acknowledged that a 40% decline in our energy use would merely buy us 17 years before those savings would be consumed by new hungry mouths.


Good topic Monte.
Did you, in the 17 years calculation, include China, India and Brazil et al?
Regardless of how much we save in energy use, those nations accelerating energy use will eclipse _ANYTHING_ the west can save by going on buses and buying energy light bulbs.

Whatever happens is a lose lose situation but here's my own personal take.
High oil prices means everything will increase in price because everything has oil in it's manufacture, never mind in it's transportation and maintenance, if applicable. This will lose jobs as people refrain from buying certain products to save money. That will very quickly slow the economy and cause economic meltdowns. People won't turn to buying alternative products such as hybrid cars. They'll adjust to travel less in the one they currently own. what's the sense of thinking, 'oh no oil prices are high, lets go and spend £10,000 on a new car that halves our oil consumption'!!
Job losses will have a domino effect on all jobs cause once your job has gone you have even less to spend on products yourself so more jobs go - recession, depresion within 12 months from a start if not less. And once you have a depression it will never end without loss of lives. The only thing that cured the economic depression of the 30's was the use and loss of lives ans subsequent pillaging and re-building of world war 2.
People will still holiday but not by jet etc etc so the ecomiies of the west would quickly crumble.

Now the west is built on growth so under no circumstances will the corporate world want any slowdown so it'll be (as it is) an oil grab. The ironic thing is that China by being cajoled into capitalism by the US needs the oil , a hell of a lot of it so there is a severe problem looming there which is very plain to see...but a China/US conflict would cure the oil shortag. Sad buy very true.

The stock markets are slowly but surely waking up. The Dow dropped 450 points in the last 2 weeks. the dollar is under a massive threat.

We are certainly not talking 17 years. we are probably not even talking 1.
Apologies Monte if you did take the growth of China, ndia and Brazil into cosideration - but you didn't say so. I read it as you were using the 'things as they are in the west now' outlook.
China is expected to grow in 10 years what it has taken the west 150 years to achieve since the Industrial revolution. Has anyone actually thought about that ? really thought about it? 10 years! In that time they are going to put 300 million (three hundred million) people currently living in the countryside into 20 cities that are being built at brakeneck speed. No amount of energy conservation will help. If every person in the US dropped dead tomorrow, oil would still peak within 15 years because of this growth of China combined with the similar growth forecast for India and Brazil as well as a multitude of other 'emerging' economies.
The west has been hoisted by it's own capitalist pretard, it has shot itself. It would be funny if it wasn't do tragic.

So in a nutshell, I think the implications of high oil prices is not being properly considered by even peak oilites. You are massively under estimating the very near term consequences and the whole plateau, transition model needs to be re-written . China et al were not considered at all when it was proposed and the law of acceleration was completly ignored

Tom XX
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 11:19:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('reggieUK', 'G')ood topic Monte.
Did you, in the 17 years calculation, include China, India and Brazil et al?
Regardless of how much we save in energy use, those nations accelerating energy use will eclipse _ANYTHING_ the west can save by going on buses and buying energy light bulbs.


Like I stated, this was the calculations of two physicists, not by me, but I believe it was for the whole world. Regardless, as you point out, due to population and affluence growth, any savings due to efficiency or conservation will only be a short-term solution.
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Unread postby sventvkg » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 11:31:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('reggieUK', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Perhaps the opportunities are endless, but so is the population growth. I recently read that two physicists acknowledged that a 40% decline in our energy use would merely buy us 17 years before those savings would be consumed by new hungry mouths.


Good topic Monte.
Did you, in the 17 years calculation, include China, India and Brazil et al?
Regardless of how much we save in energy use, those nations accelerating energy use will eclipse _ANYTHING_ the west can save by going on buses and buying energy light bulbs.

Whatever happens is a lose lose situation but here's my own personal take.
High oil prices means everything will increase in price because everything has oil in it's manufacture, never mind in it's transportation and maintenance, if applicable. This will lose jobs as people refrain from buying certain products to save money. That will very quickly slow the economy and cause economic meltdowns. People won't turn to buying alternative products such as hybrid cars. They'll adjust to travel less in the one they currently own. what's the sense of thinking, 'oh no oil prices are high, lets go and spend £10,000 on a new car that halves our oil consumption'!!
Job losses will have a domino effect on all jobs cause once your job has gone you have even less to spend on products yourself so more jobs go - recession, depresion within 12 months from a start if not less. And once you have a depression it will never end without loss of lives. The only thing that cured the economic depression of the 30's was the use and loss of lives ans subsequent pillaging and re-building of world war 2.
People will still holiday but not by jet etc etc so the ecomiies of the west would quickly crumble.

Now the west is built on growth so under no circumstances will the corporate world want any slowdown so it'll be (as it is) an oil grab. The ironic thing is that China by being cajoled into capitalism by the US needs the oil , a hell of a lot of it so there is a severe problem looming there which is very plain to see...but a China/US conflict would cure the oil shortag. Sad buy very true.

The stock markets are slowly but surely waking up. The Dow dropped 450 points in the last 2 weeks. the dollar is under a massive threat.

We are certainly not talking 17 years. we are probably not even talking 1.
Apologies Monte if you did take the growth of China, ndia and Brazil into cosideration - but you didn't say so. I read it as you were using the 'things as they are in the west now' outlook.
China is expected to grow in 10 years what it has taken the west 150 years to achieve since the Industrial revolution. Has anyone actually thought about that ? really thought about it? 10 years! In that time they are going to put 300 million (three hundred million) people currently living in the countryside into 20 cities that are being built at brakeneck speed. No amount of energy conservation will help. If every person in the US dropped dead tomorrow, oil would still peak within 15 years because of this growth of China combined with the similar growth forecast for India and Brazil as well as a multitude of other 'emerging' economies.
The west has been hoisted by it's own capitalist pretard, it has shot itself. It would be funny if it wasn't do tragic.

So in a nutshell, I think the implications of high oil prices is not being properly considered by even peak oilites. You are massively under estimating the very near term consequences and the whole plateau, transition model needs to be re-written . China et al were not considered at all when it was proposed and the law of acceleration was completly ignored

Tom XX


So, Imminent conflict between The US ( And UK!) and China then? Limited Nuclear exchanges or all out Nuclear war? Or conventional? This sounds to me like a Doom scenerio not unlike what I imagine..Is this the end?...Seriously?
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 11:33:40

I just added a poll to the thread.
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Unread postby MarkL » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 11:49:34

..
Last edited by MarkL on Sat 25 Aug 2007, 14:45:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 02 Apr 2005, 12:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkL', 'I') think you need to add one more option to your poll - All of the above!

mark


Yeah, I had thought about that, but I wanted to see if there was a certain area that would overshadow others. Obviously, this will cascade through the entire economy.
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Unread postby EZODIAK » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 02:06:48

<<What are you seeing around you? What are you hearing?>>

As a motorcyclist i've been hearing comments from people on the street who are starting dialogue with me on the rising gas prices..

"now thats the ticket"--man at gas station remarking on my bike and low cost it takes to fuel..."the good thing about these gas prices is it will stop americans from buying these gas guzzling suv's...this things a small truck and not so bad (he had a sort of 'small' suv) but i'm even getting rid of this and get me a smaller car.." I commented that the prices are going to continue to rise and rise, he say "yep..and you know its all because of greed" I nodded, and figured in the bigger picture, he was prolly right..

Fed ex driver commenting on me riding a cycle and "thats the way to go..they say its gonna rise to 80 bucks a barrel this summer...man...crazy.." Not just a small talk comment in passing, but more like he was going out of his way to express what seemed like genuine worry...

So there is, more so than ever dialogue on rising gas, with a more serious tone this time around to the point where people are thinking of ways to deal with it..i.e. the guy buying the smaller car, the fedex driver prolly wondering the effects his job will have..
Also i observe the absence of any 'i wish prices will hurry up and fall back down' closing comments, but rather a sort of acceptance that this is how its going to be and its going to get worse...
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Unread postby jesus_of_suburbia_old » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 03:10:19

Regarding gas prices:

"I stopped counting. I'm just looking forward to a brighter day".

I heard that the other day and kind of liked it.

My dad also told my mother to fill up the tank while we still could afford gas.

Who is crazy now?
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Unread postby jato » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 03:13:57

I just talked to a friend of mine. She is a stewardess and her husband is an MD80 pilot for American Airlines. They just received a %50 pay cut between them, one %20 & one %30. They were told this pay cut would be last for at least 6 years. American Airlines warned there might be another round of pay cuts on the way.

8O :shock:

They are open to the idea of Peak Oil. I am going to try and get with them to talk more about PO in the near future.

I was interested in the 6 year figure. Not sure how they arrived on that time frame.
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Monte's poll

Unread postby reggieUK » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 13:32:09

Travel - 33%
Eating out/Entertainment - 20%
Groceries - 0%
Purchases of capital goods - 12%
Tech Toys: Cell phones, cable TV, etc. - 25%
Investments - 4%
Recreation - 4%

So we would drop travel, eating out, tech toys (which all really fall under recreation anyway) But we would keep our investments!! Why?
Doesn't that show, that even with peak oil on the doorstep, if not actually entering the house, we would still keep our 'investments' over our life!
How warped is that? What is there to invest in exactly? Who will pay out?

However this does clearly show (so far in the poll) why the world isn't waking up to PO and why stock markets are not falling rapidly - simply because people still put money uber alles, even when they 'know' or say they know that peak oil is a reality. Surely investments have to be the first thing to go. Forget pensions, forget bank accounts, forget stocks and shares and commodities - it's all going to go _IF_ you 'believe' in PO.

The only investments we should be making are in self sustainability but not by 'investing' in solar power or anything on the home because if we have it and they don't then they are going to try and get it so NO home will be a secure option. Self sustainability is needed and probably one that is nomadic and portable.

Good advice would be to close our accounts, scrap our endowments and mortgages and use the funds to go self sufficient in as portable a way as is possible and as an added tip, do NOT consider buying an RV! :))
Transport will have to be horses, camels or feet.!

Tom
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 13:40:22

Well, with only 24 respondents so far, I can hardly say this is representative or indicative of anything. 8)
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