[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', 'I')f this site fostered community building (there isn't a 'hometown' or 'state' forum) then I'd be more supportive,

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'W')e did have 2 mbpd capacity

[vaseline2008]

Peak Oil is not a belief, it's a fact. Nothing is perpetual and nothing lasts forever. It is only in hindsight where we will know when the Peak was.

[Rogozhin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', 'I')f this site fostered community building (there isn't a 'hometown' or 'state' forum) then I'd be more supportive,

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')DIT:
Actually if we exceed 86 mbpd in 2012 I will eat humble pie and admit how terribly wrong my judgment was based on current events!

[tmulk]

Peak is here. We have already seen it. Peak oil isn't an opinion, as someone said. It's fact. Yeah, the price has gone down. It might continue to go down some more. But when it rebounds, there's no telling what's going to happen.

This has all been factored in by all of those who have written about peak oil for years, Simmons and the others.

They have all said, oil would get expensive. The economy would suffer. People would quit spending. Oil would go down due to demand destruction. The price would go low enough that the search for new sites would stop. Extracting heavy sour crude would become more expensive, as price plummets. Extraction of heavy sour would be cut. The price of oil would start back up. Oil supply will not be there. Countries will end up outbiding us, (America). Opec will start pumping again, only this time, it will be in limited quantities. Etc, etc, etc.

Peak oil is here, folks. IT has hit. IT is fact. Most refineries today have already or are in the process of making the change over from sweet light to heavy sour crude. They started this change over years ago. How do I know? I have an uncle who started out with Sinclair years ago, a geophysist. I also have a cousin who works for an american oil company (won't say which one), at a refinery, who told me two years ago they were making the change over in equipment at that point.

It's here, it's fact, it's not going away.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tmulk', '
')They have all said, oil would get expensive. The economy would suffer. People would quit spending. Oil would go down due to demand destruction.

[tmulk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tmulk', '
')They have all said, oil would get expensive. The economy would suffer. People would quit spending. Oil would go down due to demand destruction.

[geolog]

Peak Oil…?...Everything isn’t so bad…

According to the estimate made by the USGS (WPA 2000) “approximately 800 billion barrels are awaiting discovery in the coming 25 years. Implying a tripling of current annual discovery for a period of 25 years”. This desired increase of annual discovery still isn’t achieved. However, the USGS forecast is real, because a great possibility of improving discovery rate can be achieved as a result of technological progress in exploration methods.

With new technologies (like patented invention US 7,330,790) oil industry could make three times more oil and gas discoveries than when using conventional technology. And the fact that new technology won't need more investments than a conventional one is also very important. It could significantly mitigate world energy problems. The technology is designed and successfully tested in the Barents and the Black Seas as well as in the Gulf of Mexico (see: www.binaryseismoem.weebly.com).

I do not know who will be interested in the technology… Big Oil Co.? OPEC ? No, they dream for oil price to go back to $100 and more. OPEC cut down oil production and does not want to increase discoveries worldwide. Bureaucracy in geophysics or geology? No, they do not want any changes in conventional exploration technology to increase discoveries and production. May be US government and people?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'S')o you shall be leaving us shortly, Mr. Raymondson?

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')DIT: Actually if we exceed 86 mbpd in 2012 I will eat humble pie and admit how terribly wrong my judgment was based on current events!

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly if you believe OPEC claims, without question. The IEA has said that is where virtually all of the spare capacity is, but, of course, such claims have not been independently audited. So it's more accurate to say that "we may have had between 0 and 2 mbpd of spare capacity".

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', 'Y')ou can give me 2012 (my name is Peter), and in three years I'll be quoting your inane proposition.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', 'Y')ou can give me 2012 (my name is Peter), and in three years I'll be quoting your inane proposition.

[Rogozhin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rogozhin', 'Y')ou can give me 2012 (my name is Peter), and in three years I'll be quoting your inane proposition.

[skeptik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'V')ery observant, wise young grasshopper. Five months ago the buzzword here was that the price of oil would be high from now on to forever. It was never supposed to go below $100 ever again.

[GreyFox]

The coming Greater Depression has bought some limited time for the Peak Oil crisis to begin. Nothing else about Peak Oil has changed. The only question now is how long and how deep will this Depression be.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyFox', 'T')he coming Greater Depression has bought some limited time for the Peak Oil crisis to begin. Nothing else about Peak Oil has changed. The only question now is how long and how deep will this Depression be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skeptik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'V')ery observant, wise young grasshopper. Five months ago the buzzword here was that the price of oil would be high from now on to forever. It was never supposed to go below $100 ever again.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'W')ell SA apparently had 2mbpd in heavy crude but, even if you don't believe that, Nigeria had a significant amount of locked in capacity due to its civil unrest.
Given prices are falling to 2003 levels it would seem logical spare capcity is now there also.
If demand actually declines next year (say by 2 mbpd) we would have 6 mbpd spare capacity - $30 oil anyone?