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Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby Revi » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 16:15:15

I think "they" might be us. I always wondered how the die off would happen, and now it's becoming clearer. The near future is looking darker by the day. Our state has to chop 150 million out of this year's budget. That means immediate cuts to Health and Human Services and Education. They have to find all this money now to keep the ship afloat. Not next budget cycle, now. Next year will mean even deeper cuts. Winter is coming on fast, and a lot of people will be out of a job with higher bills to pay for both heat and electricity. (Whenever the heater is running it takes electricity to run it)

Food insecurity has already hit here. There was a recent report that 10% of families in Maine have real trouble affording food. Thank god for food cupboards, but they are having trouble getting food to give to people now. We may be looking at real food insecurity like we haven't seen in Maine for the past 30 or 40 years.

The price of the things regular people buy hasn't gone down any, but our pathetic assets have really tanked.
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Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby truecougarblue » Wed 26 Nov 2008, 13:55:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', 'I')nflation can't happen because the entire planet is deflating simultaneously. If everyone but US started recovering, there would be a selloff of dollars 2 B sure.


And that is the difference between inflation and devaluation. You can devalue a currency without it being inflated.
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Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby GeneralGreen » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 05:06:25

The dollar is still the worlds best currency and the US Treasury notes best safe haven..
You all are fooling yourselves if you think the EURO or Swiss frank are better..they are MORE leveraged then the US Dollar..and the Swiss for example are 100% Dependant on the world banking system and are more leveraged then the dollar.
The dollar will be one of the last currencies to collpase...
Funny you have clowns like Peter Shiit saying doom doom dollar doom..and callers ask how he thinks of the Euro will be and he is all for the Euro or Swiss frank..What a joke he should be reading the news on European bailouts and European leverage...Also European exports are taking a nose dive...Placing nations like Sweden in a desperate situation as their Saab sales dry up....I expect teh Euro will do a hell of allot worse then the dollar will in teh years ahead..esp as the big 4 member do their own thing and act independently. Places like Hungry -Romania and the Baltics are near insolvent..And as real Estate takes a Shiit next year in poland ..they also will be in a big banking mess.The fun is really going to get under way come 2009 in the EU
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Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby MrBean » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 06:02:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GeneralGreen', 'T')he dollar is still the worlds best currency and the US Treasury notes best safe haven..
You all are fooling yourselves if you think the EURO or Swiss frank are better..they are MORE leveraged then the US Dollar..and the Swiss for example are 100% Dependant on the world banking system and are more leveraged then the dollar.
The dollar will be one of the last currencies to collpase...
Funny you have clowns like Peter Shiit saying doom doom dollar doom..and callers ask how he thinks of the Euro will be and he is all for the Euro or Swiss frank..What a joke he should be reading the news on European bailouts and European leverage...Also European exports are taking a nose dive...Placing nations like Sweden in a desperate situation as their Saab sales dry up....I expect teh Euro will do a hell of allot worse then the dollar will in teh years ahead..esp as the big 4 member do their own thing and act independently. Places like Hungry -Romania and the Baltics are near insolvent..And as real Estate takes a Shiit next year in poland ..they also will be in a big banking mess.The fun is really going to get under way come 2009 in the EU


Lot's of words, little content. Please explain (with some real data) why dollar is the best currency and US treasury notes the best safe haven? I'd really like to see sources for your claims about leveradging.

How long can the racket of printing FIAT currency for real economy imports of goods (e.g. oil) continue? On the other hand, euro-zone has had relatively good trade balance with OPEC and Russia.

PS: Hungary, Romania, Baltics and Poland are not in the euro-zone.
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Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby truecougarblue » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 00:01:02

I can name 4 or five asian currencies I'd rather be in than the dollar.

Start with yen and work your way down the list. The dollar will be strong until it isn't.
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Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 29 Nov 2008, 05:58:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thecomingdepression', '[')marq=left]deleted as spam by wisconsin_cur[/marq]
I love it, everyone's an analyst! :-D
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Re: Depression = strong dollar or dollar crash?

Unread postby billg » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 18:27:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]UN team warns of hard landing for dollar
By Harvey Morris in New York

Published: December 1 2008 08:48 | Last updated: December 1 2008 08:48

The current strength of the dollar is temporary and the US currency risks a hard landing in 2009, according to a team of United Nations economists who foresaw a year ago that a US downturn would bring the global economy to a near standstill.

In their annual report on the world economy published on Monday, the economists said the dollar’s sharp rebound this autumn had been driven mainly by a flight to the safety of the international reserve currency as the financial crisis spread beyond the US.

The overall trend remained a downward one, however, reflecting perceptions that the US debt position was approaching unsustainable levels. An accelerated fall of the dollar could bring new turmoil to financial markets.

“Investors might renew their flight to safety, though this time away from dollar-denominated assets, thereby forcing the US economy into a hard landing and pulling the global economy into a deeper recession,” the report said.

Publication of the annual survey by the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, its trade organisation Unctad and UN regional bodies, was brought forward by a month in the light of the financial crisis. It was launched in Doha to coincide with the UN-sponsored development financing conference in the Qatari capital.

The UN team said that, as the financial crisis spread beyond the US, there had been a massive shift of global financial assets into US Treasury bills, driving their yields almost to zero and pushing the dollar sharply higher. At the same time, however, the US’s external debt had risen to new heights that could provoke a dollar collapse.

The report recommends reform of the international reserve system away from almost exclusive reliance on the dollar and towards a globally backed multi-currency system.

Rob Vos, a Dutch economist who heads the UN’s policy and analysis division and who is responsible for the annual economic review, said the global economic pain could be eased if governments co-ordinated a spate of stimulus packages that were already under way.

“There has been a sea change in attitudes in favour of intervention and concerted action,” he told the Financial Times. He welcomed statements from US president-elect Barack Obama’s transition team in support of spending on infrastructure.
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