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U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby Lanthanide » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 17:10:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'I')'m still holding to the April 15th Tax Filing date as a watershed event, but even that won't necessarily grind the gears to a complete halt. I think at this point we could keep operating for another couple of years, though since I have been wrong on timeline setting so many times before if I think this now it probably means the system goes Blooey by the end of the year.

I'm putting my money on the holiday season. At this point, all of the retail channels, and therefore shipping and distribution companies, are building up inventory to sell into the holidays in a business-as-usual model. Unless things turn out to be really incredibly bad, we won't know how bad the holidays have been until mid-January or perhaps February. By that point we'll have huge retail chains reporting massive losses and cutting staff left, right and center. That'll cascade on down through the economy and the real fun begins after that.
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 17:55:49

Very good points above. Modern examples of economic collapse in industrialised countries featured a massive wealth gradient anyone with an ounce of sense could arbitrage to some extent, often right on your national border. We cannot take that for granted this time. As long as there is mankind there will always be inequality and opportunity within it, but it is hardly the same as living memory if everyone gets floored initially.
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 03:45:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'T')here's a current thread on Tickerforum talking about this,

Falling International Reserves, the "no mas moment"?

Maybe I missed something here, and it is a different topic. I don't know squat on this sort of thing, but it quoted the same FS article.
WTF is going on here? Is the US ready to implode?

If international reserves are falling, then foreign central banks will presumably be buying fewer treasuries. The lower price of oil may see less treasury buying by oil exporting countries, and if China becomes less export focussed and runs smaller trade surpluses, they may buy fewer treasuries too.

I'm no expert, but this does seem to suggest that outright monetisation of the US debt is a step closer.

Maybe someone else has a more optimistic perspective on this? This doesn't look good.
"Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby Duende » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 15:58:27

So - if I'm to understand, China has $2 trillion of our dollars. Our gov't is borrowing these dollars from the Chinese and giving them to faultering banks like AIG and Goldman Sachs, who in turn use them to pay off derivative obligations.

Dumb question: If this is the case, then what happens when we have to pay back the Chinese?
"Where is the man who has so much as to be out of danger?" -Thomas Huxley
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 16:20:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', '.')..what happens when we have to pay back the Chinese?
We give them our first-born children, which they'll gladly take.
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby Revi » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 17:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')A while back I created a thread for suggestions of alternative replacement systems which might be implemented. I think it might be time to bump that thread back up. I do not think SOMETHING won't be tried to reorganize here, so we can bet on the possibilities we can generate up :-) In a sense, this is a great OPPORTUNITY! A chance for everyone to Start Over from scratch with a clean slate. There IS wealth left in the world, its just a question of how to distribute out what is left?

How long though before the shell game stops working? A week, a month, another quarter, a year, a decade, what? I sure wish somebody could answer that question.

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Your posts are really insightful. I was thinking the same thing. I think it will be a barter economy, backed by silver coins or something. Like a giant farmer's market, or a giant flea market. A lot of the time there will be barter of things, with silver or maybe gold as the currency for things that aren't as easy to transport. Maybe trade a dozen silver dollars for a cord of wood for example.

Banking will start up again slowly. Vaults will hold the silver and gold. Loans will be made with them as collateral.

It will all be local. We will basically have to start from scratch.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby skeptik » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 17:10:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', '.')..what happens when we have to pay back the Chinese?
We give them our first-born children, which they'll gladly take.

They've got enough kids of their own. I'm sure they'd rather have GOM.
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby Revi » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 18:58:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', 'S')o - if I'm to understand, China has $2 trillion of our dollars. Our gov't is borrowing these dollars from the Chinese and giving them to faultering banks like AIG and Goldman Sachs, who in turn use them to pay off derivative obligations.

Dumb question: If this is the case, then what happens when we have to pay back the Chinese?


So we are borrowing more money from the Chinese to pay back the bad bets these people made.

We are looting the future to pay off the big boys' margin calls.

Is that right?

How does Paulson's announcement that we aren't actually going to help out struggling mortgage holders play into this?

Aren't we giving them enough of the funny money with the 700 bil bailout?

Why are we so beholden to these bankers and hedge funders?

Are we just paying off George's friends before he leaves office so that they can carry big bags of moolah with them in the lifeboats?
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: U.S. is borrowing to float "shadow banking"

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 23:02:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Are we just paying off George's friends before he leaves office so that they can carry big bags of moolah with them in the lifeboats?


Yes. Our country country is going to burn at some point and the thieves will have fled with their loot.
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