[Graeme]

Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil is down more than 50% from its high of $147 a barrel. Where are the peak oil believers? the breathless analysts and cheerleaders of the commodity that warned of a Mad Max armageddon?

Here is an interesting chart showing the history of OPEC changes in supply. In recessions, when there is less demand for oil, price cuts or better put, announced price cuts, don’t have the same effect.

A walk down contrarian lane brings us to the The Economist cover from March 6, 1999 (see above). At the time oil was trading around $14 and thought by many to only be able to go lower. What we saw recently, sentiment-wise, was the opposite of this, where “peak oil” came to be bandied about incessantly in the media and taken as gospel to imply that oil could only go up.

From a technical point of view, there is strong long-term support for crude oil in the $40 area. I have no idea if we will indeed go that low. But if we do, I’d suspect oil to find strong footing in that area.

Here’s a historical chart showing the previous OPEC changes in production:

[RSFB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')here Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?

[Cloud9]

Jubak said in his column on MSN; "A new report from the International Energy Agency says outputs from currently producing oil fields is falling 9.1% a year."

Looks like oil has peaked to me.

[RdSnt]

Let's see that chart superimposed over petroleum use and production.

[vtsnowedin]

Right now I'm working on how to spend my Obama /Pelosie tax cut. I'll get back to peak oil soon enough.
Whats the average cost worldwide to get a barrel of oil FOB a tanker? That plus say 5% would be my view of the real floor and as old shallow fields decline and are replaced by deep offshore wells that price must be going up weekly.

[killJOY]

I just heard Lake Erie is actually an oil pool. I can't wait till they start pumping it and the price declines to $1/barrel, forever.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ') Whats the average cost worldwide to get a barrel of oil FOB a tanker? That plus say 5% would be my view of the real floor and as old shallow fields decline and are replaced by deep offshore wells that price must be going up weekly.

[Graeme]

If investment capital flows into green tech, then the author may well be right.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hats the average cost worldwide to get a barrel of oil FOB a tanker? That plus say 5% would be my view of the real floor and as old shallow fields decline and are replaced by deep offshore wells that price must be going up weekly.

[notill]

We're still firmly entrenched in "peak oil". It's all relative and the graph will not go in a straight line. Case in point, wages are declining towards $10 per hour for many, and even after this dramatic drop in commodities gas still costs almost $3.00, (plus perhaps another $10 per gallon in military and political costs to police the oil infrastructure).

Thirty years ago wages were at $5.00 and gas was $.39. Another way of putting it, oil costs are taking an ever increasing share of our financial resources.

[Pops]

The Peak Oilists are alive and well.

Interestingly, the first thread I responded to here asked the same question:

http://www.peakoil.com/post28.html#28

I don't know if the tactic is an honest question, an invitation to debate or merely an effort to reinforce ones own convictions.

No matter, you may know some of me or not but 'round the first of this year I guessed the price of oil would get near $150 then go below $90 due to price rationing. Not too far wrong at this point and since I don't remember your guess I can't compare.

If you are feeling lonely since no one is responding to you let me clue you in:
The true Peak Oilists only debate for sport when they have time away from the real world.

Whoever else you have been talking to till now has probably become either bored with you or the game or more probably distracted by the reality of wildly fluctuating commodity prices and some other stuff of which you might have read.

I don't have any overarching point to make except to observe that many here have spent lots of effort to become less dependent to the structures on which we now rely and I commend them. As well I wish luck to those like you who trust the machine to make everything all right. As usual the end result will probably be a little of both.

And while I appreciate your contribution of positive news to the site, don't delude yourself into thinking the Peak Oilists have all gone back to life in the 'burbs.

No reply is necessary. Not debating, just stating - I had some spare time.

[cat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'J')ubak said in his column on MSN; "A new report from the International Energy Agency says outputs from currently producing oil fields is falling 9.1% a year." Looks like oil has peaked to me.

[Revi]

The amount of oil pumped out of the ground is going down. This lower price will guarantee that. Oil projects that were started assuming a price of $100 a barrel won't be profitable.

The world will pump less oil. We'll end up with less.

That's exactly what peak oil theory says.

It doesn't mean the price won't fluctuate.

We'll probably leave a lot of oil in the ground, because people won't want to go get it now.

The low hanging fruit is already picked.

It takes progressively more energy and hassle to get what's left now.

Why bother?

Let's move on. The oil age is over.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cat', 'T')his has been a very good site, with some great posters. But recently it has not addressed the peak oil issue very well, and its relationship with this financial crisis. I have not even seen a discussion about this 9% decline. Please post more on peak oil.

[Heineken]

I'm still here. But I'm giving more priority to other activities than spouting my head off here, which I've already done too much of.

Peak Oil is very much alive as an issue. The greatest economic boom in human history, enabled by a sustained period of maximum oil and NG production, is now unwinding, and we may now have the greatest economic bust in human history, brought on in large part by instabilities created by the record oil prices that the boom stimulated.

Any future economic boom will run into the immovable objects of ever tighter energy supply constraints and ever higher prices.

This oscillation will bring us down, over time.

[sicophiliac]

I think we need some to step back and gain some perspective on this. This crash in the price is only a few months old and in my opinion its a rebound from the bubble that built up since the fed began to slash interest rates last fall. Now its in a bit of an overshoot and were down in the 60-70 dollar a barrel range. Some projects might be put on hold but most energy companies have plenty of cash on hand to ride this out for a bit if they have too. If we are here in the next year or two and oil is still cheap... the economy is still bad and oil projects are being canned then yeah this might have some effect ultimately on future oil production.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sicophiliac', ' ')Some projects might be put on hold but most energy companies have plenty of cash on hand to ride this out for a bit if they have too.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he Peak Oilists are alive and well.
Interestingly, the first thread I responded to here asked the same question: link
I don't know if the tactic is an honest question, an invitation to debate or merely an effort to reinforce ones own convictions.

No matter, you may know some of me or not but 'round the first of this year I guessed the price of oil would get near $150 then go below $90 due to price rationing. Not too far wrong at this point and since I don't remember your guess I can't compare.
If you are feeling lonely since no one is responding to you let me clue you in:
The true Peak Oilists only debate for sport when they have time away from the real world.

Whoever else you have been talking to till now has probably become either bored with you or the game or more probably distracted by the reality of wildly fluctuating commodity prices and some other stuff of which you might have read.

I don't have any overarching point to make except to observe that many here have spent lots of effort to become less dependent to the structures on which we now rely and I commend them. As well I wish luck to those like you who trust the machine to make everything all right. As usual the end result will probably be a little of both.

And while I appreciate your contribution of positive news to the site, don't delude yourself into thinking the Peak Oilists have all gone back to life in the 'burbs.
No reply is necessary. Not debating, just stating - I had some spare time.)

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'J')ust found this info:
Oil Break-Even Prices
Bahrain $40
Kuwait $17
KSA $30
U.A.E. $25
Oman $40
Qatar $30
oil sands $33 (Canada)
According to a September 2008 article, $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi in March put the marginal cost at between $60 and $70 a barrel. Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said some high-cost oil projects cost $70-$80 a barrel and if the price of oil continued to fall, investors would withdraw from them. Some analysts have said the marginal cost is higher. Investec Asset Management in a report saw it rising to more than $100 a barrel, given 20 percent cost inflation in 2008.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom a technical point of view, there is strong long-term support for crude oil in the $40 area.