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Compare with 1929 (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

When will America hit it's next 1929?

Poll ended at Fri 24 Dec 2004, 20:27:27

Any day now
4
No votes
No dramatic crash-just continuous recession (eventually)
5
No votes
Within 5 years from now
27
No votes
within 5-10 years from now
14
No votes
between 10-20 years from now
2
No votes
between 20-30 years from now
0
0%
between 30-50 years from now
0
0%
between 50-100 years from now
0
0%
Never
1
No votes
Whenever the govt publicly admits Oil has already peaked
4
No votes
 
Total votes : 57

Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby ohcomeon » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 13:06:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '[')url=http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=52465#post52465]It will be more like 1873.[/url]

Link found on Ron Paul's Campaign for Liberty.


Excellent article!! Thanks for posting it.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 13:38:08

Great article! Worth killing a tree (print)! :-D
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 13:50:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sittinguy', 'E')ven with high gas prices and food prices people are getting along OK for now. Everyone I know still has 150 channels on TV, high speed internet, pool pump running, luxury food items, A/C on 74 degrees. And all people had to do was give up a hobby or cut back on them.

So things are going to have to WAY more expensive to REALLY get attention with action required. Rite now it just gets your attention.

My personal theory is people living within their means, even if its paycheck to paycheck, will do OK

People that NEED to use a credit card every month to make it to the next check,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ARE SCREWED

but what do I know


In a contracting economy let them lose their job. They will go from boom to bust in about 60 days. A lot less if they are paycheck to paycheck.
At that point does it really matter if they cut out the 150 channels or set the ac a couple of degrees higher?
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 05:03:55

Why not 1373? Image

He says the Weimar's need to pay remittances was a factor in 1929 that isn't present now, but what would you compare the enormous scale of US debt to?
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby Cloud9 » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 06:46:12

You are right. This won’t be like 1929. In 29 there were a lot of people still alive that had been born in the 19th century. Those people came from a preindustrial society. They actually knew how to work. This new storm is going to be totally different.

This current generation is not going to be able to walk out in the back yard and pull up a turnip or strangle a chicken if it gets hungry.

Even those of us on the sidelines my run out of popcorn before this is over.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 08:40:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'E')ven those of us on the sidelines my run out of popcorn before this is over.


we'll be eating earthworms & grilling crows. already experimented with the first part.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby Specop_007 » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 10:08:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')hy not 1373? Image

He says the Weimar's need to pay remittances was a factor in 1929 that isn't present now, but what would you compare the enormous scale of US debt to?


I dont know why everyone complains about the level of American debt. Look at our debt as a percentage of GDP, then compare it to many other first world countries.

You may be suprised......
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby Snowrunner » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 11:13:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'I') dont know why everyone complains about the level of American debt. Look at our debt as a percentage of GDP, then compare it to many other first world countries.

You may be suprised......


Personally for me (from the outside) it's the rate at which it increases for one, but the other thing is that the US already in the late '90s relied heavily on foreign investments to stay afloat.

Then there is the ongoing cost of (at least two) very expensive wars and not a lot of options to cut internally before hitting the bone.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby Specop_007 » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 11:19:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'I') dont know why everyone complains about the level of American debt. Look at our debt as a percentage of GDP, then compare it to many other first world countries.

You may be suprised......


Personally for me (from the outside) it's the rate at which it increases for one, but the other thing is that the US already in the late '90s relied heavily on foreign investments to stay afloat.

Then there is the ongoing cost of (at least two) very expensive wars and not a lot of options to cut internally before hitting the bone.


True, there may be some big differences in the makeup of the debt.

As for cutting, I personally believe we could cut damn near a trillion from the budget. its important to remember the enumerated powers. Spending outside of that is not hitting bone. We may think we need to spend half a trillion a year on social programs, but frankly we do not.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 11:48:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '
')As for cutting, I personally believe we could cut damn near a trillion from the budget. its important to remember the enumerated powers. Spending outside of that is not hitting bone. We may think we need to spend half a trillion a year on social programs, but frankly we do not.


Actually, non-discretionary spending (social programs) account for 1.7 trillion USD of spending. Compare that to about 1.2 trillion for discretionary spending (half of which is military spending).

Of course, we actually save hundreds of billions every year because we understate inflation, which is what we rely upon for increases in mandatory spending. Thanks Bill Clinton?

Social Security alone is $600 billion and it rises by about 5% a year ($30 billion - total amount of pork in the budget!)
Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby Snowrunner » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 11:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'A')s for cutting, I personally believe we could cut damn near a trillion from the budget. its important to remember the enumerated powers. Spending outside of that is not hitting bone. We may think we need to spend half a trillion a year on social programs, but frankly we do not.


Not knowing exactly how many people rely on "Government handouts" to make it this may not be an option, at least not if you do not want to have an all out war by the now suddenly having nothings against the the ones who still have something.

The situation, IMO, is made worse in the US due to the vast amount of handguns in the populance.

If the Government wants to stoke the fire I am sure they can cut that trillion out of these programs, but the fallout of it would probably not be pretty.

Just because something is mathematical possible (like, say, an ever increasing GDP) does not mean that it will work in the real world with humans.
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Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby KevO » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 12:17:40

hold on to your hats, if you had the money to buy one
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')eanwhile, the current financial crisis may be more far-reaching than even the 1929 crash, a Bank of England policymaker has warned.

Professor David Blanchflower - who has often been a lone voice in urging rate cuts and is a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee - said big interest rate cuts were needed to avoid a deep recession.

"If rates are not cut aggressively, we do face the prospect of a relatively deep and long-lasting recession," he said.

Professor Blanchflower warned international financial problems could turn out to have long-lasting repercussions.

"It is even possible that this event may turn out to be more significant than the 1929 crash which primarily involved bank failures in the United States," he said.

"The current difficulties in financial markets are more global in nature and more comparable to what happened in the First World War.

BBC News

start Xmas shopping on ebay and amazon this weekend!
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby KevO » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 12:21:20

............which would make peak oil the least of everyones worries.
Seriously I collect art and rare books but this weekend they all go on to ebay before Jan/Feb (the shit hitting fan months)
Money in a bank?
get it out whilst you still can and buy stoves and self suffiency stuff!
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby patience » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 14:27:26

I'm with you KevO!
QUOTE
"Jan/Feb (crap hitting the fan months).." I hope it holds together that long. We need to move some money, and it will take a bit of time, from Treasuries in a govt retirement account, and then pay off my kid's mortgage, and figure out what the HELL to do with the rest of it.

My kids are situated on a 32 acre homestead, and we may put some into a shop and a small livestock shed there. I've collected garden tools, horse implements (girl grew up working draft horses, but don't have any at the moment), boxes of nails, logging stuff, a blacksmith shop + 2,000 lbs. coal for it, hand cranked grinder and drill press, hand woodworking tools, etc.. They need a building to put it in. My shop is stuffed. They worked out a deal with the neighbor to provide pasture and horse care in exchange for working a couple their horses.

We have done all we know to do on our one acre, including water supply, PV electric, generator, fuels, wood heat and cooking, big gardens, stuffed pantry, the whole nine yards of it. Chicken facility going up this month, and feed is on hand, plus the feed ginder and gas engine and gas.

I'm getting freaked about the world situation, and I have 2 related questions:

1) What have I forgotten? (Wish there was a master checklist!)
2) Where to put our savings. (No debt , small business, age 62)
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby Spanktron9 » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 16:54:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '1')) What have I forgotten? (Wish there was a master checklist!)
2) Where to put our savings. (No debt , small business, age 62)


Wow, patience. I hope you are wrong about the time frame. I don't see that level of collapse for several years. But since I have been wrong about the speed of collapse thus far, I don't have much confidence in my estimates. As far as where to put savings, I have been converting mine to long term food stuffs like Mountain house, and tradable items, like ammo, nails, boots and clothing.

In terms of what have you forgotten? How well stocked on medical supplies are you?sterile bandages, gauze, tape, sutures, iodine, betadine, lydocaine, etc.?
Who are you going to turn to when all the crazy Peak-oil doomers end up being right?
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby KevO » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 16:57:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')2) Where to put our savings. (No debt , small business, age 62)


Honestly.
Savings could all be lost.
If it goes the way of 1929 they certainly will be.
I'm telling family and friends to withdraw all monies, whilst you still can
(to rely on 'guarantees' from the gov is pure folly) and to spend it on things of value for your own home such as solar hot water heating systems, rain harvesters, wind turbines, geo thermal installations, solid fuel stoves, super wall and loft insulation, tools, converting the garden and/or any land at hand to grow food - buy land to do so etc etc. That is where any money should go and let's face it if things ever did go back to the way they were, your home will have increased in value more than any (if any) interest on savings,
Having a bank account/savings/shares now is no different to staking your all on a 100 to 1 horse. You may be lucky.
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 17:05:36

My devil's advocate hackles are up.

I'm increasingly dubious that "this is it." I feel that the System still has the capacity for a few more whirls on the merry-go-round.

Credit is starting to loosen. The stock markets are stabilizing. Oil and other commodity prices are far lower. The drop in housing sales (if not prices) appears to have bottomed. The dollar has strengthened.

Right now the world is drowning in energy surpluses. This is a huge plus for the System that we of all people should not overlook.

We may end up having no more than a mild and brief recession. I don't see a boom ahead either, though. After recovery sets in, sort of steady-as-you-go for a while.
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 17:26:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he dollar has strengthened.


So have all currencies pegged to the dollar, relative to the euro and the currencies either pegged to it or trading broadly flat with respect to it on account of equivalent falls. And it happened right after a commodity bubble blow-off top. The euro high and commodity high coincided nicely ~3 months ago. And it was too much too soon, nearly 25% down in that period. And that is a problem. Because unless the euro goes back up (how, everyone is begging for rate cuts) or I am missing something very important about currency swaps, Europe is about to start defaulting on trade credit. Quick rotation lets you ride devaluation instead of falling off a cliff, but Christmas inventory will be like passing an elephant turd.
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 17:27:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Credit is starting to loosen. The stock markets are stabilizing. Oil and other commodity prices are far lower. The drop in housing sales (if not prices) appears to have bottomed. The dollar has strengthened.

Right now the world is drowning in energy surpluses. This is a huge plus for the System that we of all people should not overlook.

We may end up having no more than a mild and brief recession. I don't see a boom ahead either, though. After recovery sets in, sort of steady-as-you-go for a while.


How did John Denver hack into Heineken's account? :razz:
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Re: Blanchflower: Could be worse than 1929

Unread postby Arsenal » Thu 30 Oct 2008, 18:08:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '
')How did John Denver hack into Heineken's account? :razz:


HAHAHA! :lol:
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