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PeakOil is You

So what's next?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: So what's next?

Unread postby Jotapay » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 17:11:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlueGhostNo2', 'I')'m preparing to emigrate to NZ, scoping it out now, then I'll go back to England get another software dev job and start organizing it.


I've seriously thought about that for the last 2 years. But I don't see NZ as being any better off than where I am now. They must import a lot of their raw materials. If they had a currency crisis, they would be in the same predicament that Iceland now finds itself. How well off relatively would NZ be versus continental countries in a financial meltdown?
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Re: So what's next?

Unread postby patience » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 17:28:00

What's next?
Idiots in SUV's out of gas along the road. What kpeavey said. Nincompoops like my sister in law, who owes back taxes, runs up the credit cards for new clothes, and throws out leftover steak, will be begging one of the family for a place to stay. Bad check writers will proliferate, along with petty theft and gas pump driveaways.

Then we get the next leg down, when the bailouts aren't enough, and the currency is further diluted with funny money to prop the banksters, yet again, while the costs of food and energy go ballistic. Anybody's guess from there.
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Re: So what's next?

Unread postby allenwrench » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 19:33:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IgnoranceIsBliss', 'S')hopping/ buying things is our national pastime. It's what we do for amusement. People will still try to buy the usual junk until the bitter end. (ie their credit card is maxed and then cut off) I think we will see a lot more credit card defaults when folks just run them up and then stop paying. (maybe after a job loss)

Then comes anger because "hey, I work hard but can't afford that big screen TV that I have to get!"

I've been wondering the same thing: how is our economy going to recover (let alone grow again) without the consumer spending component?

The only answer that I see right away is some kind of gov't funded public works projects to provide jobs and help us transition into a green economy. Chances of this actualy happening: minimal at best

Maybe more people will join the military to get work and benefits. That would solve the troop shortage, but give us a lot of untrained personnel. Maybe we wage more wars to keep the military industrial complex fully funded and providing more jobs.



We can see we have created a time bomb. Even the highest level brainiac economists can't fix what ails us. Our whole system is based on an unsustainable model that will eventually collapse no matter how much money that is printed up by the Fed. (...they don't even need to print money nowadays, all that needs to be done to create billions is to magnetize a silicon chip!)

Now maybe if our energy supply was stable and affordable and global warming was not an issue, things would be different and we could keep on consuming and expanding as infinitum

Sad thing is...IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE TO DO A 180...Without compulsive spending and conspicuous consumption funded by unaffordable debt, we would fail as a country.

You ever hear the saying...'I got the tiger by the tail and can't let go?' That is how it has developed in the US of A.

Lets say everyone becomes voluntary simplicity and frugal squirrel devotees. We recycle, reuse, repair and just say no to buying more crap. If we stop buying all the stuff that America imports from China - who keeps the billion plus people in China from starving, so they do not go back to old ways of trying to take over the world?

And on a more local level, if the consumer stops consuming even US goods, the US companies go bust, everyone loses their jobs and his or her retirement funds will collapse.

What about growing a a garden...nothing wrong with that? Lets say everyone starts growing 'victory gardens' in the backyard as food has become unaffordable. So some of the few farmers left in the US go bust cause their food just rots on the shelves unsold. Now there is less food being produced and at even a higher cost to those that can afford it the least.

What about more taxes? Tax the little guy so DC can pay for their compulsive spending disease. More taxes = less for us to compulsively spend 'trying' to buy happiness = lower earnings for the greedy corporations = raise hell with the DOW = less cap gains tax income for the gov to squander = everyone's retirement funds sink lower and lower = even less compulsive spending since everyone is poorer..."A debt-based society cannot prosper and is doomed to fail..." ~ Ron Paul

Back in the day, (prairie and turn of the century) citizens were more of a self sufficient nature. Most of us have lost that skill of self sufficiency and we have shifted gears to be dependent on gov and a few other such as farmers or oil producers or China to take care of the whole pop of the US. The problem is, it is very hard to go back without causing a lot of pain. (Actually a lot of deaths)

Hell, the impotent people of modern day and age can't even make pancakes or peanut butter sandwiches and have to buy them ready made in the store...it's really scary.
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Re: So what's next?

Unread postby patience » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 08:20:22

Here's one guy's take on what's next, quoted from Tickerforum:

OH **** I see what you are saying - countries are going to fall simply because they have weaker currencies and people trust them less for 'safe haven' purposes. In a generalized flight to safety all these countries will pop BUT their debt will too, causing more and more destruction in the remaining countries until... WOW a chain reaction like this could take out half the economies of the world!! Is there a word for something worse than a depression, like a destruction? OH damn I hadnt even thought about the consequences. Iceland popped and now people are viewing smaller countries in the same way they look at possibly bad banks - they are pulling their money out!! OMFG. This is bigger than a bank run.
endquote

First Iceland, then? Pakistan? Hungary? Who's next? This could wreak devastation through the whole world economy. Dominoes, just like the banks.
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Re: So what's next?

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 08:25:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')First Iceland, then? Pakistan? Hungary? Who's next? This could wreak devastation through the whole world economy. Dominoes, just like the banks.


Don't forget the Ukraine!

(also, do you have a link to the tickerforum? thx)
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Re: So what's next?

Unread postby patience » Thu 16 Oct 2008, 08:38:02

DoomWarrior,

Sorry. Shoulda done that.

Tickerforum

As an aside, the pump up from the weekend "Great G7 Propup" didn't last all that long, huh? Pretty much gone by now.
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