[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'N')o, it's not time to eat crow. It's time for everyone else to.

We peak oilers always knew that the "Grand Depression" scenario was likely.

Heck, it was peak oilers like Matt Simmons and Mike Ruppert who put the phrase "demand destruction" on the map. It wasn't a term ordinary economists used. It really is a peak oil thing. And now it's appearing in MSM headlines.

[DantesPeak]

Last year I said that the price of oil would range between $78 and $146 in 2008. So far that is almost exactly the range.

I said months ago, before the Bear Stearns failure, that because of the effects of peak oil, we will have a recession in the second half of 2008, where the economy would fall twice as fast in the fourth quarter as in the third.

Why should I eat crow? And when exactly did cornucopians predict oil going up to $147 this year? And if they didn't predict what happened before, what makes them right now?

[Sixstrings]

Maybe demand destruction and recession are the market forces' response to the oil production ceiling. I'd say that every time we hit that ceiling, the market will correct downward.

Of course, we'll find ourselves at a lower economic plateau after each correction.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'I') have three questions for our forum crowd:
1. Are we fools? In other words, was all of that Peak Oil talk just a lot of blather, similar to the old Dot Com "New Economy" nonsense?
2. Did people like us contribute to the Oil Bubble?
3. Is it time for us to be honest and admit we were wrong?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'M')att Simmons has been wrong about virtually everything...

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '"')We" are wrong?

[Ferretlover]

No, I am not, VMark. I hardly think that one person's reported remark in an article can offset all the research that has been collected here regarding the decimation of natural resources.

[nero]

JD,

You make a persuasive case that Simmons was too pessimistic. I hadn't put it all together like that.

Similarly on this site we have discussed the financial world in what I believe is too alarmist a manner. We got it right several years ago when we were pointing out the problems of the massive debts and the potential for economic turmoil. But the people who thought that it would lead to TEOTWAWKI will I predict have alot of egg on their face.

[Carlhole]

So, this means that we all now think that peak oil is a problem that it can be dealt with through diversification of energy sourcing, energy technology innovation, conservation and adaptation, right?

No need to store a year's supply of food. No need to start survival communities. No need to stock up on guns and ammo. No need to fantasize about zombie hordes. America will not be turning teats up any time soon...

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'N')o, I am not, VMark. I hardly think that one person's reported remark in an article can offset all the research that has been collected here regarding the decimation of natural resources.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')his idea that PO will be delayed is ridiculous.

In 2008, the world will consume about 86 mb/d.

In 2009 the world will consume about 86 mb/d regardless of economic conditions. That means oil producers will continue finding markets for every bbl they produce. Talk of cuts in production are just that: Talk.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'S')o, this means we now think peak oil is a problem that can be dealt with through diversification of energy sourcing, energy technology innovation, conservation and adaptation, right?

Silly doomers were anticipating an economic collapse -- and -- $300 oil. Simultaneously!

Sorry, it doesn't work that way.

Back here on July 11 (ironically the date the price peaked) I tried to tell someone:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'E')conomic destruction => demand destruction => eventual price destruction.

[coyote]

Anyone who definitively called peak oil in the past should reconsider crying wolf again in the future. That goes for Colin Campbell, Deffeyes, Pickens, etc., and some on these boards during the price runup this year. Lesson to be learned now: we will only know peak oil in the rear view mirror. By several years. But hey, we knew that already.

This summer could have been it. The beginning of the Long Emergency. But it wasn't. And when oil was $147 a barrel, if I had run to my family and friends telling them to run for the hills, I'd have lost all credibility with them; and then when the real descent begins they'd have none of me and my wild advice.

The thing to remember about the Boy Who Cried Wolf is that he was right in the end - he got the timing wrong, is all. The wolf did come, and there was devastation.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')orry cube, at the time you wrote that the bull market had only 1 month + a few days to live. Pity you put me on your ignore list.

[Ayoob]

In my mind there isn't that much difference between $300 oil and $40 oil that nobody can afford. Either way you have to price the bottom out of the market, both work equally well.

I try to think about peak oil in how it's directly going to affect me personally over my lifespan, and prepare for what I think is coming. Since I don't trade oil futures it doesn't matter much to me which one it is.

The way I go about it is to think about how I can continue to afford to use oil without worrying about the price too much. As long as I stay in the top 20% of income earners in the US, I'll drive to work.

I will say the whole deflation thing caught me with my pants down. Still, a couple months ago oil prices were on literally every single page of the newspaper, every five minutes on the news, etc. I didn't hear a single dissenting voice on the topic, everybody was bullish on oil, and that's when I knew the jig was up and I sold.

I think I dumped when oil was something like $145 and I don't know what to do right now but sit in cash. It worked out well for me, but that's an accident.

Crow doesn't look good to me right now.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'N')o, I am not, VMark. I hardly think that one person's reported remark in an article can offset all the research that has been collected here regarding the decimation of natural resources.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'T')he way I go about it is to think about how I can continue to afford to use oil without worrying about the price too much. As long as I stay in the top 20% of income earners in the US, I'll drive to work.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'N')o, I am not, VMark. I hardly think that one person's reported remark in an article can offset all the research that has been collected here regarding the decimation of natural resources.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')t seemed to me you were laughing at the 3 questions, not the article.