[oswald622]

Much of the discussion here has been based around proximate causes (Libor rates, TED spreads, frozen credit, etc.) and forces that can be quantified. While acknowledging the utility of such discussion, I prefer to take a teleological tack and look at where we're ultimately headed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'T')he Financial Crisis will only end in a sense that it will transform into a crisis of currency and global trade. It is like Peter Schiff has said. The Fed will solve the banking crisis, but create an even bigger crisis in the process.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', ' ')I prefer to take a teleological tack

[AlexdeLarge]

They Fed and Treasury may avert an immediate collapse. That is what the bailout was suppose to do.

We are going to witness events similar to the 1929 crash. The crash of October 29 was just a date. An event historians chose to say this is when the great depression began. Many say it started a little earlier and the worse years were 33 and 34.

We will continue to slowly slide into a recession. It will not happen overnight or be mass riots in the streets. This October's earnings season will force the market lower and at Christmas the dismal sales figures will push it lower still. In 2009, the Alt. A mortgages will start to default in greater numbers leading to more drags on the economy.

We are just at the beginning. The question is how deep the recesson will be and how long it will last. Any major event such as another terrorist attack, hurricane etc could push us into a depression.

Time will tell.

[skeptik]

[align=center]Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
No

[/align]

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', 'I') have no idea. I'm inclined to doubt it, but I'm not the person to ask. I wasn't a business major, I was a psychology major. Ask me if the current world is crazy or not. I can answer that one.

[Gebari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skeptik', '[')align=center]Is the Financial Crisis Ending?
No

[/align]

[biofuel13]

Dow drops to 8898. Yep I's say the crisis is pretty much over. LOL

[RdSnt]

While the term CDO has been heard quite a bit I would contend that very little of the general population knows what they are or the implications of their being declared worthless.
More importantly though, they are secret in a way, in that they are off-book, over the counter paper, meaning that the banks have not had to declare their value and thus been able to hide the fact that they are worthless. With Lehman's cdo redemptions, this will no longer be the case.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shady28', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'A')s Rocc alluded to, Lehman's CDO redemptions are triggered tomorrow (Friday). Unless the PTB have rigged it somehow to hide that there there is a significant re-valuation of cdo derivatives tomorrow that will give a clear signal of how much this heavily leveraged paper is worth (zero).
I would expect a bad reaction, particularly since the G7 don't meet till Saturday. US markets are opening very soft today and I would expect that same sort of pattern as yesterday with a late day collapse.

[Jotapay]

LOL, ya, DJIA=8880. Down 4% so far today, still 1.5 hours left to go. Don't cherry-pick your bargains just yet....

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', 'M')uch of the discussion here has been based around proximate causes (Libor rates, TED spreads, frozen credit, etc.) and forces that can be quantified. While acknowledging the utility of such discussion, I prefer to take a teleological tack and look at where we're ultimately headed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'T')he Financial Crisis will only end in a sense that it will transform into a crisis of currency and global trade. It is like Peter Schiff has said. The Fed will solve the banking crisis, but create an even bigger crisis in the process.

[Heineken]

Jeezel peezel. I sure picked the wrong day to start this thread! Dow down almost 400 points at this moment. And as the base on which these devastating drops declines, a 400 point drop today becomes like a 600 point drop a month ago.

I wonder when we get---what do they call it---"capitulation"? Scary. We should all be scared at the intimate personal level.

[Gebari]

DOW down 570+ and plunging, into the 8600's now. GM is on the brink. Banks in Europe got hammered towards the end of the day, TED hitting new highs. Yup, crisis over, BAU soon.

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'J')eezel peezel. I sure picked the wrong day to start this thread! Dow down almost 400 points at this moment. And as the base on which these devastating drops declines, a 400 point drop today becomes like a 600 point drop a month ago.

I wonder when we get---what do they call it---"capitulation"? Scary. We should all be scared at the intimate personal level.

[Jotapay]

Christ it is ugly to watch such slaughter.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y gut feeling is that we've seen the worst of it.

[RdSnt]

And just to remind everyone, Paulson put a child in charge of $700 billion dollars.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'A')nd just to remind everyone, Paulson put a child in charge of $700 billion dollars.

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'A')nd just to remind everyone, Paulson put a child in charge of $700 billion dollars.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'J')eezel peezel. I sure picked the wrong day to start this thread! Dow down almost 400 points at this moment. And as the base on which these devastating drops declines, a 400 point drop today becomes like a 600 point drop a month ago.

I wonder when we get---what do they call it---"capitulation"? Scary. We should all be scared at the intimate personal level.

[pedalling_faster]

what was the last company that $300 billion in liabilities and a stock market cap of $4 billion ? WaMu.

GM balance sheet, 190 billion in liabilities, market value of $3 billion. GM

Ford balance sheet, 260 billion in liabilities, market value of $5 billion Ford

i think GM and/or Ford are about to go BK. what banks would be most impacted by GM or Ford defaulting on their debt ?

Europe WAS
one of GM's bright spots.