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Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby coyote » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:24:45

I don't think so. I think the real estate markets have to turn the corner before anything else can. And foreclosures are still soaring. Once real estate hits bottom, then I think it's time to buy.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:32:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y gut feeling is that we've seen the worst of it...

Pretty much. Go with your gut. There's still some shaking out to be done, but the bottom is probably in sight now.

Lately we seem to be ignoring the fact that everything around us is fueled by or made from crude oil. Remember oil? Look up at the top of this page. We've forgotten what this site is all about. We're still burning up something like 87 million barrels of it a day, aren't we? Certainly we all know what that means.

Sure. The financial scam we've been running for a while is unraveling at last. It's about time. The real estate bubble we all knew would burst has popped with a vengeance. The landscape has changed a lot. Many players are gone. We're all poorer. Millions of us have been hurt very badly. More will be.

But the sun is about to rise yet again this morning, at least out here. Has it risen where you live?

The mirrors have been re-arranged, and they'll be re-arranged some more. But the game will go on. Some pundits are already talking about a slowly-developing bull market by the end of the year. We'll see about that.

You're right, Hein. Things are settling down, at last. There are still lots of zingers in store for us, and we'll be adjusting to a lower level of economic activity, but the daily onslaught of horrendous calamities is starting to ease.


And oil has suddenly become fantastically cheaper. That fact all by itself may offset the financial instability. It's a tide running the other way.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Arsenal » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:34:39

Hmm.. Just hit the red.... -42 for the DOW at 10:33am

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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:35:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'I') don't think so. I think the real estate markets have to turn the corner before anything else can. And foreclosures are still soaring.


Maybe, but the government is focusing vast resources on supporting real estate. Those measures may start to bite sooner than we think.

Just a feeling.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:39:04

No the worst is not over, perhaps for this year the worst is over though. Next year will be much worse. Things have much futher to fall and we wont see a true recovery until many years to come when the world is essentially a different place.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:39:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arsenal', 'H')mm.. Just hit the red.... -42 for the DOW at 10:33am

Dow



up .88 right now

The stock are volatile and people are waiting.

This is only the beginning. We are in for a massive depression and nothing is going to change that.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby gnm » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:42:39

I think the real estate issues are just beginning to play out. And if you look at it, a good chunk of that federal funny money is still in the form of loans - albeit cheap rate short term loans. Do you really think these swindling coin flippers are going to start turning a profit again soon? How are they going to pay back those loans? Nope I don't think we've seen the bottom yet..

Oh and yes of course any improvement in the economy and oil shoots back up.

Its funny, I remember telling a friend of mine a couple years back (he was complaining as gas climbed past $2.50 a gallon) - I told him, don't worry, it'll come back down when the economy collapses. For some reason he wasn't very reassured by that... :-D

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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby dunewalker » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:51:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IndigoMoon', 'J')ust a thought, but with the gas prices coming down because of the oil prices coming down, won't everyone running out to top off their tanks cause the gas to pretty much go away?


You forget that domestic demand for oil dropped during the last EIA reporting period, by 8.6%. Even if the price of fuel comes down significantly, demand probably won't return to previous levels, as perhaps 10% of the US population so far has been impacted by the "recession" during that time, by job losses or reductions, foreclosures, etc.

"Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 18.7
million barrels per day, down by 8.6 percent compared to the similar period
last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly
8.8 million barrels per day, down by 5.3 percent from the same period last
year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, down by 8.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel
demand is 5.5 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same
four-week period last year."

Weekly US Petroleum Report

Heineken, I think you're beginning to recycle your psychological stages of reaction to peak oil/economic/societal collapse.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:52:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'I') don't think so. I think the real estate markets have to turn the corner before anything else can. And foreclosures are still soaring. Once real estate hits bottom, then I think it's time to buy.


Ditto.

There cannot be a "reset" of an economy that is has been driven by overleveraged assets until the underlying "foundational" asset values have truly hit bottom.

Also, what about the ripple effects coming off this downturn? Stocks may not plunge as violently, but unemployment, business closures, home and commercial real estate foreclosures, etc., are just going to START picking up steam toward the downside, with all nasty consequences that follow.

Ending, you say?

Begun, the Greater Depression has.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:54:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'I') don't think so. I think the real estate markets have to turn the corner before anything else can. And foreclosures are still soaring.


Maybe, but the government is focusing vast resources on supporting real estate. Those measures may start to bite sooner than we think.

Just a feeling.


I think the problem is we are "fighting yesterdays war" again.

The housing market may have been the trigger, but it has consequences that go far beyond that, these things shaking out will take time.

I think the first act has ended, maybe we'll get a bit of breathing room, but unless banks start lending again on "good faith" essentially the thing is far from over.

I think we may have reached a plateau that will give us some breathing room for a few days or weeks (I doubt months).

As for oil and other resources, yes, they will factor eventually in, but it isn't named "The Long Emergency" for nothing, the weakest link in the chain usually goes first and the "make belief" financial system clearly is that link.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Gebari » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 10:59:08

After strong gains earlier in the day world markets have gone into reverse again, triple digit losses on the DOW at the moment and all gains wiped off European markets after being up nearly 3% earlier.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:05:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'E')nding, you say?

Begun, the Greater Depression has.

Could well be, but is that the topic of the thread?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s the Financial Crisis Ending?

To me, that refers to The Big Bank Shakeout we've all been horrified witnesses to. That, it would seem, is coming to an end, simply because there aren't that many more major players left to disintegrate!

The recession/depression story is another thing entirely. Certainly we're in for a severe global recession. Yes, it could easily get to "depression" levels.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby patience » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:05:55

Financial Crisis ending? Sarcasm, right?

My gut says this sucker is going in the tank. And it's a DEEP tank. We're nowhere close to the bottom.

Libor at a high level, TED spread is at very high levels, interbank lending in cardiac arrest, and no relief in sight. US Banks are still insolvent, Iceland belly up, European banks being guaranteed by govts, currencies trading at outrageous levels, and no fundamental improvements in sight. No credit, no business, no economy. Dream on....
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:10:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s the Financial Crisis Ending?

To me, that refers to The Big Bank Shakeout we've all been horrified witnesses to. That, it would seem, is coming to an end, simply because there aren't that many more major players left to disintegrate!


In the US maybe, but in other markets it has only now begun.

Being cynical here, but if say, one or two major European banks go belly up this would probably ricochet back into the US and may just take down another one of the "super banks" that are being cobbled together right now.

Besides, aren't there still a few hundred if not thousand banks on the "shitlist" with the Fed?
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:12:17

5500 is the new CEILING.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:15:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '5')500 is the new CEILING.



I am a firm believer that 6800 - 7500 is the lowest this will go.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:15:48

I admit my posts on financial stuff have been inconsistent. One day I feel like Zardoz, another day I feel like Rocc. It's all feelings, whipping this way and that as the Fed "does this" and "does that" every couple of minutes (literally).

None of this knows where this is heading because no one understands it. No one can understand it. Like our other huge problems, it's bigger than we are now.

My brother, who is sort of a genius (used to be president of a Nasdaq-listed tech company and has a Harvard Ph.D.), says he thinks the price of an average house will have to fall to about $75,000 before a bottom is reached in real estate. That's a 70% drop from here. Crikey.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y brother, who is sort of a genius (used to be president of a Nasdaq-listed tech company and has a Harvard Ph.D.), says he thinks the price of an average house will have to fall to about $75,000 before a bottom is reached in real estate. That's a 70% drop from here. Crikey.


He, so the good news is my end up buying something in the end after all :D

But I hear you, I am checking my sanity regularly too, I feel at times like the guys who went into the wilderness because of Y2K
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y brother, who is sort of a genius (used to be president of a Nasdaq-listed tech company and has a Harvard Ph.D.), says he thinks the price of an average house will have to fall to about $75,000 before a bottom is reached in real estate. That's a 70% drop from here. Crikey.


Agreed, I've been saying taht to family for awhile now. They just look at me funny.
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Re: Is the Financial Crisis Ending?

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 09 Oct 2008, 11:18:33

Maybe we need to define "financial crisis". Seems we're all talking about different things.
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