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Asian Markets Down Big . . .

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby dohboi » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:31:16

Rocc, yes, 3% isn't much in the big picture, but when people see that even a trillion thrown at this thing won't stop the bleeding, don't you think that panic might set in?

This was supposed to be the final step in a series of ultimately-futile measures that the Paulson-Bernanke show has applied to stop the unraveling. When it becomes clear that it maybe only slowed it down a bit, I could imagine that a heavy kind of dispair and panic may result.

"These people could go a month without eating and they would still be overweight." ftt, they may be doing just that soon. Perhaps they have stored up their PMs in the one place where no one can steal them?
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby mos6507 » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:38:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')made possible and fostered by the giddiness of peak and just-pre-peak maximum availability of the energy of cheap oil


Profligate energy use had been "made possible" for the last century. That in and of itself did not force the immediate housing crisis.

This crisis did not have to happen. It was not an inevitable consequence of peak oil anymore than the stock market crash of 1929 was. In fact, if this crisis had NOT taken place, something like it would have happened by the time oil hit $300 a barrel, driven purely by high oil prices rather than market bubbles. But at $100, it hurts the economy, but is not the cause of this mess. Try not to tie all bad events to peak oil when they aren't.
Last edited by mos6507 on Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:42:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:41:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'I')'m a bit surprised to hear so many on this forum (of all place) say that the financial maelstrom is clouding or delaying effects of PO.

Does no one else think that what we are seeing is exactly what has long been predicted more or less as the result of PO?


Totally agree. Guess what. Send $400 billion dollars to OPEC in a year, you're going to have a liquidity crisis. No mystery there.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Cashmere » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:43:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '"')down big" 3% Uh-huh
Wake me up when there is some real news to post cashless



Ok Roc, I'll ring you up when the shut the ATMs down so you can piss your pants with I-told-you-so glee.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Cid_Yama » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:45:01

AIG got downgraded 2 days after the 85 billion. Tell me 700 billion would even have an effect.

This is just standing at the rim of a deep dark hole and trying to fill it with bushels full of money.

Damn it! Liquidity is not the problem. The banks are insolvent.

It's time for the American people to challenge this BS.

It won't happen til they're starving. Unfortunately that's not far off.

I'm sure Dr. Guillotin's plans are available online.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Cashmere » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:45:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'S')PG, isn't this just a classic case of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news"?

I'm a bit surprised to hear so many on this forum (of all place) say that the financial maelstrom is clouding or delaying effects of PO.

Does no one else think that what we are seeing is exactly what has long been predicted more or less as the result of PO?

All these wild and crazy financial shenanigans, from ARMs for McMansions in the exurbs to CDS's leveraged up the wazoo were surely made possible and fostered by the giddiness of peak and just-pre-peak maximum availability of the energy of cheap oil, and attempts to paper over the beginnings of the end with credit games.

Sustained oil prices many times the long-term average is driving the nail of reality slowly into the skull of the financial markets that there can be no expectation of increased returns on investments in an increasingly energy constrained world. The whole system is surely facing a kind of existential crisis, staring into the abyss as into a mirror.

Does no one else share anything like this analysis even on the threads of this PO forum?


Dohboi - well written, and I agree.

Let's not forget that the 50% of tax money and borrowing going to military expenditures is fueling 2 resource wars.
almost 1/2 billion a day, 144 billion a year - what's that? 700 billion? What a coincidence.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby mos6507 » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:48:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '
')Send $400 billion dollars to OPEC in a year, you're going to have a liquidity crisis. No mystery there.


That's bad, but it isn't really so much that we're buying foreign oil but that we don't use it wisely. Like Peter Schiff says, we've become a consumer/debtor nation that has increasingly little of value to offer the world.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby jbrovont » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 00:59:28

I read a theory that CDS being triggered will create demand/glut cycles of USD as it's required to pay the holder. Since there is more CDS value than there are USD in existence, first there will be a run, the Fed prints (loans) w/e, they get paid with new money, which then turns inflationary and pushes the USD down. I'm still considering this, but it seems to make sense on the surface.

But yes, looks like asian markets are getting slaughtered right now. :(

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'T')he dollar is up more. WTF!?!?! :-x
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby dohboi » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 01:08:32

Mos wrote: "Profligate energy use had been "made possible" for the last century. That in and of itself did not force the immediate housing crisis"

I agree that it didn't force anything, that's why I said "made possible and fostered." At peak there was more cheap oil available to the world than at any time in history, before or after. I think that makes it a bit different than the earlier times, but of course that earlier profligate energy use saw plenty of booms and busts. This is just the bust to bust all busts, IMVHO.

It is of course a complex phenomenon, but I just didn't think that, here at least, PO should be completely left out of the discussion of causality with this disaster.

jb, that sounds interesting and ominous. Do you have a source or linky so we can judge for ourselves?
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 01:29:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')sn't a rate cut in the cards this week? Drop it to 0 and get it over with!


I think Ben should cut the rate to -3% and pay the banks to borrow the funny money.

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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby dohboi » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 01:31:36

Nikkei now down 4.61%
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 01:32:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ikkei 225 10,433.53 1:10AM ET Down 504.61 (-4.61%)


Not even down 5% ... no prob!
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby jbrovont » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 01:54:19

I'm looking for a link atm. I almost want to say it was on bloomberg, but I can't find it now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'M')os wrote: "Profligate energy use had been "made possible" for the last century. That in and of itself did not force the immediate housing crisis"

I agree that it didn't force anything, that's why I said "made possible and fostered." At peak there was more cheap oil available to the world than at any time in history, before or after. I think that makes it a bit different than the earlier times, but of course that earlier profligate energy use saw plenty of booms and busts. This is just the bust to bust all busts, IMVHO.

It is of course a complex phenomenon, but I just didn't think that, here at least, PO should be completely left out of the discussion of causality with this disaster.

jb, that sounds interesting and ominous. Do you have a source or linky so we can judge for ourselves?
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby threadbear » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 01:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'I')'m a bit surprised to hear so many on this forum (of all place) say that the financial maelstrom is clouding or delaying effects of PO.

Does no one else think that what we are seeing is exactly what has long been predicted more or less as the result of PO?


Totally agree. Guess what. Send $400 billion dollars to OPEC in a year, you're going to have a liquidity crisis. No mystery there.


Not quite. A lot of that money ended up right back in American banks. That's one of the reasons the high prices were tolerated, encouraged by the US govt.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Novus » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 02:06:20

If the DOW looses 4% like Asia did then it would close under 10k. That would set things for further panic as a turning point that the PPT has failed.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby skeptik » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 02:22:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ') The banks aren't lending because they're scared for their own butts.

More accurately, they're scared of eachother's butts. They're not lending because they're afraid that whoever they lend to will go busto on them and they won't get their money back. This wont change until all the crappy derivatives, CDO's and CDS's, are forced out into the open (which would send a lot of institutions out of business, but save the system) where everybody can see them. This is the essential problem which nobody seems to want to face up to. Until this is addressed pumping more liquidity into the system is just 'pushing on a string'.The banks will just put the money somewhere safe rather than lending it to people and corporations who are desperate for credit.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Cashmere » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 03:20:40

Oil is about to dive under 90.

Everything's being swept down.

Where

is

the

bottoM?

I can't see anything yet.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby dohboi » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 03:30:05

Now Nikkei, Hang Seng and Singapore Strait Times are all down ~ 4.2

I like the point about being afraid of each others butts. If after sniffing around a bit, and after the big infusion of the good sh*t from the Treasury, the banks start being more comfortable around each others butts, will they be any less afraid of the rest of our butts? Will they be any more willing to lend to individuals and small businesses? It sounds like they won't.

But what is the "somewhere safe" place for money these days? Not Money Markets after last week's near run on them. Certainly not stocks. Comodities? Real estate? Everywhere you turn, once relatively safe vehicles are losing value or are in danger of some sort of collapse. Will they just shift from one to the other?
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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 03:34:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'O')il is about to dive under 90.

Everything's being swept down.

Where

is

the

bottoM?

I can't see anything yet.


There IS no "bottom" to a Black Hole.

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Re: Asian Markets Open Down Big

Postby Quinny » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 03:37:07

FTSE down nearly 5%
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