[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattS', '.')..
Seahorse was upset that people, OF2 in particular, aren't taking a topic he finds dear as seriously as he is.
...

[Tyler_JC]

The basic problem is that the US federal government and average citizen is living well beyond its means.

We're going to have a long string of lean years before the imbalances are corrected.

The dollar will continue to come under pressure as US growth slows. At the same time, interest rates will have to rise in response.

Consumers won't be able to pile on more debt. The government will have to cut the deficit or lose its AAA credit rating.

We're all going to have to learn to live with less.

I can't predict which bank will fail next or where the S&P will be at this point next year but I like to think that I can pick out general trends.

And the general trend I see is that the US does not matter as much as it used to. Normally high commodity prices slow down economic growth and lead to lower commodity prices. That's not happening right now because of the rapid economic development in the Asian countries.

We could actually see a recession in the US, Japan, EuroZone, UK while still maintaining growth in China and the Middle East.

The whole world hasn't decoupled from the US (as is evidenced by the recession in Europe) but China has enough domestic demand that it could avoid a recession by spending some of that "savings glut" that Bernanke used to talk about.

As for the actual issue at hand, bank failures. The largest banks are not in immediate jeopardy of collapsing thanks to unprecedented access to the discount window. Once the Feds decided that JP Morgan could borrow money from the discount window to buy Bear Stearns, we opened up a can of worms. The Feds then decided that Fannie and Freddie deserved access to an unlimited line of credit from the US Treasury at very generous rates. Now "homeowners" are going to see their mortgages backed up by the Treasury to the tune of $300 BILLION. It's gotten out of control.

Does anyone expect them to sit by idly while Citigroup or Bank of America shut down?

I strongly agree with Bill's Fleckenstein article on MSN. We've become a bailout nation. American taxpayers are going to foot the bill for any crisis.

Just like last time the banking industry collapsed in the 1990s.

The system won't collapse because it's not in the interests of TPTB to let it collapse. They will lobby and are currently lobbying Congress to spend more taxpayer money to glue everything back to together. Maybe they can patch it up for another 15 years before the same people get into the same mess again.

The collapse comes in the form of a lowered standard of living for the average person. There won't be a sudden crash, just the slow and steady erosion of our currency and the real economy.

The result is the same, it's just not as noticeable.

And with that I go to bed and try to figure out a way not to read as much news tomorrow.

(seahorse, is this what you were looking for?)

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '&')lt;snip>
The collapse comes in the form of a lowered standard of living for the average person. There won't be a sudden crash, just the slow and steady erosion of our currency and the real economy.

The result is the same, it's just not as noticeable.

And with that I go to bed and try to figure out a way not to read as much news tomorrow.

(seahorse, is this what you were looking for?)

[seahorse]

In light of recent events, I'm bumping this thread. When I started the thread, I was acknowledging a trend of bank failures and looming financial problems, and telling people they should be alarmed and start taking action to protect themselves. Oilfinder and others tried to dismiss the significance of the looming problems, like in this post:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'d heard of Indymac, but not the others. Not sure if Freddie and Fannie are actual "banks," but I suppose you could call them that if you wanted to.

This won't be the first time a bunch of banks have failed. And it won't be the last, either. Oh well.

[countrygal]

What crisis? What are you talkking about? I don't see no crisis. I got money out of Washington mutual just on friday, it hasn't failed.
And it will be open tomorrow again, they said so.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('countrygal', 'W')hat crisis? What are you talkking about? I don't see no crisis. I got money out of Washington mutual just on friday, it hasn't failed.
And it will be open tomorrow again, they said so.

[seahorse]

Looks like countrygal got her membership tonight and has already made 19 posts. Fantastic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I')n light of recent events, I'm bumping this thread. When I started the thread, I was acknowledging a trend of bank failures and looming financial problems, and telling people they should be alarmed and start taking action to protect themselves. Oilfinder and others tried to dismiss the significance of the looming problems, like in this post:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')'d heard of Indymac, but not the others. Not sure if Freddie and Fannie are actual "banks," but I suppose you could call them that if you wanted to.

This won't be the first time a bunch of banks have failed. And it won't be the last, either. Oh well.

[copious.abundance]

BTW, you must be desperate and/or paranoid if you think anyone on this board is a "paid shrill." It's not worth anyone's while to pay someone to post opposing views on a freakin' internet board.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Citibank is having trouble too.

In the absense of this bailout, the Dow would have gone to 8300 the week before last. See Matt S's board. After that I think it would have leveled our around 7000. The deal with JPM taking over WAMU should put a floor in around 9000 and the bailout should bring this bottom up to around 10,500 for now. Expect the market to be trading in the 11,000s for the next few weeks. There should still be good entry points into oil and natural gas drillers over the next 2 months.

Lates.
g

[jbrovont]

Whether it works or not is debatable, but I've never heard it disputed that people get paid for this. Rather I've read a lot of references to this being a pretty common practice for corporations for a while, and the GOP more recently. If you want a book reference, pick up "Coercion" by Douglas Rushkoff. If you want online resources, I'm sure I can find some for you. Probably even applications to get that job.

Let me know.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')TW, you must be desperate and/or paranoid if you think anyone on this board is a "paid shrill." It's not worth anyone's while to pay someone to post opposing views on a freakin' internet board.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'F')irst of all, click here. Been there, done that.

[Dont_Panic]

Guys, will you please calm down... yes, there's a financial crisis, yes, it will be tougher times for many, no, the world is not going to be sucked into a black hole and be torn apart by the gravital forces (at least not in a few billion years).

The financial system had to fail because it's based on unsustainable principles. This will have effects beyond the system itself. Negative effects. HOWEVER. Only people who are very prone to doomsday thinking and unable to keep a balanced view on the situation believe that this will lead to total collapse of society, anarchy, mass death, etc. You're just making fools of yourselves crisis maximizing and exaggerating. The real situation is bad enough as it is, there's no need to make it look even worse than it is.

[EndOfGrowth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dont_Panic', '
')f. Negative effects. HOWEVER. Only people who are very prone to doomsday thinking and unable to keep a balanced view on the situation believe that this will lead to total collapse of society, anarchy, mass death, etc. You're just making fools of yourselves crisis maximizing and exaggerating. s.

[Dont_Panic]

This site is clearly not the place for inteliggent discussions....


1: You have no idea who my "gvmnt" is.
2: Don't waste my time with random 50 page conspiracy sites and a vague hint that somewhere on those pages, there's evidence that "my gvmnt" is preparing for something.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'L')ooks like countrygal got her membership tonight and has already made 19 posts. Fantastic.

[EndOfGrowth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dont_Panic', 'T')his site is clearly not the place for inteliggent discussions....


1: You have no idea who my "gvmnt" is.
2: Don't waste my time with random 50 page conspiracy sites and a vague hint that somewhere on those pages, there's evidence that "my gvmnt" is preparing for something.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'F')irst of all, click here. Been there, done that.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dont_Panic', 'G')uys, will you please calm down...

Only people who are very prone to doomsday thinking and unable to keep a balanced view on the situation believe that this will lead to total collapse of society, anarchy, mass death, etc.

You're just making fools of yourselves crisis maximizing and exaggerating...

[smallpoxgirl]

Our only saving grace is that compared to tickerforum.org we look like shameless optimists.