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Why don't the doomers move?

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Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby ProudFossil » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 16:38:36

I have been reading all the doom and gloom on these forums which seem to be escalating every week. Now with the crappy credit bailouts it has even accelerated to a daily basis. People are asking why us, what has happened to the United States, the Consitution is scrapped, the military will soon be coming in, the coup has occurred, oh woe is us!!!!

Another part of these doom is among us discussions is how to prepare for the impending disaster. The "experts" are basically all saying prepare to live in the same standard of living as existed around 1850. I had to laugh at the person who said they had 65 pounds of frozen fish in the freezer as preparation for living off the land when all the facilities fail. My question to them is where are you going to get the electricity to keep those fish edible beyond the third day of thawing?

My main question is this. If you are telling us to prepare to live off the land, to return to a subsistance level, why do you not prepare for such an existance by moving to a locality where such is the norm? Say rural South Africa, or eastern India, or next door to Obama's brother? Why stay here and suffer the change when you could easily move to that environment and fit right in. You would be settled in when the damnation occurs and it would have little effect upon you. Since you all do agree there is some time before it does happen it would make sense to do it now while you still have time.

It is obvious from your predicitions that there will be turmoil and chaos when the crash occurs here. But I doubt if those already living at the reduced standard you are advocating will even notice such a blip in their lives. By your moving there you will not suffer the huge disruption in your lives which you are predicting for those of us who do not move. So why don't you just move and shut up?

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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby AgentR » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 16:46:36

Some have owned farmland in the US for generations; some don't want to learn a new language, some don't have the cash needed to make a solid start in a foreign country... etc.

Personally, I think the US, when all the dust settles, is going to be one of the least harmed regions of the world. Sure, there will be a hideous loss of luxury and excess; but a lot of core needs are easily met by the bounty of this land. Our military and police are largely uncorrupt; climate is well suited for agriculture, rail systems are everywhere, very large coastal zones, lots of water, a solid inland waterway in the mississippi and the great lakes canal system. We have a decent shot at things afterwards.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby ProudFossil » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:01:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'S')ome have owned farmland in the US for generations; some don't want to learn a new language, some don't have the cash needed to make a solid start in a foreign country... etc. Personally, I think the US, when all the dust settles, is going to be one of the least harmed regions of the world. Sure, there will be a hideous loss of luxury and excess; but a lot of core needs are easily met by the bounty of this land. Our military and police are largely uncorrupt; climate is well suited for agriculture, rail systems are everywhere, very large coastal zones, lots of water, a solid inland waterway in the mississippi and the great lakes canal system. We have a decent shot at things afterwards.

Thank you for your reply but you sound more like a realist and not one of the doomers. Of course where you are describing is East of the Mississippi. I live in the desert Southwest and it will not be as easy here. But I do agree with most of your points.

You explanations in the first paragraph for the reasons not to move are the type of answers given by "yes...but" people. The doomers on this forum sound like anything like that. They are good at predicting what is going to happen. If these are their reasons, then they are actually blowhards. What good is land held by generations of your family if you have to defend it against the zombies? And many of our ancestors learned a new language when they came to this country. And if Obama's brother can live on a dollar a week (or is it a month), then $500 would make you a rich man there. I am still looking for the actual doomers to give me valid reasons why they would sit and suffer the collapse rather than be able to easily prepare for and survive it.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:03:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'P')ersonally, I think the US, when all the dust settles, is going to be one of the least harmed regions of the world. Sure, there will be a hideous loss of luxury and excess; but a lot of core needs are easily met by the bounty of this land.

Are you sure? The way farming is happening in the Western World these days is not the ones that even our grandparents knew. It's not only about the ability to get the energy, but we have invested so much into monocultures that we have in places destroyed the ability to grow food. In time this will of course reverse, but in the short term it could pose tremendous problems.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur military and police are largely uncorrupt;

For now. If there is no more money to pay the cop or the military (which right now is mostly half way around the world) things can change easy. It really depends on how bad one thinks things are going to get, the reality is what we consider civilzation is a very thin veneer on some rather ugly looking things.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')limate is well suited for agriculture, rail systems are everywhere, very large coastal zones, lots of water, a solid inland waterway in the mississippi and the great lakes canal system. We have a decent shot at things afterwards.

A lot of these things rely on cheap energy though, the trains need Diesel to make it coast to coast etc. Yes, there is a lot of "natural resources' still left, but in most parts they aren't where most of the people are and a lot of knowledge has been lost.

As for the OP: If the Doomer scenarios really come true then there won't be a place that is "good", and if you are perceived an "outsider" by the core group then you're done for anyway. So moving to a place like Africa is probably (for the majority of people) not a solution.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby ProudFossil » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:08:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'A')s for the OP: If the Doomer scenarios really come true then there won't be a place that is "good", and if you are perceived an "outsider" by the core group then you're done for anyway. So moving to a place like Africa is probably (for the majority of people) not a solution.

But there are few doomers and greasing the palms in many of the indigent areas buys one a lot of status. So my question still stands for the doomers and not the majority of people.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby AgentR » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:15:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'A')re you sure? The way farming is happening in the Western World these days is not the ones that even our grandparents knew. It's not only about the ability to get the energy, but we have invested so much into monocultures that we have in places destroyed the ability to grow food.
Yes, there are examples of such; however, nothing done there is really irreversable; nor does it really take into account a lot of land that is currently fallow simply because it can't be nicely lined up into a monoculture super-field.
Besides, just because its monoculture now, doesn't imply it has to be monoculture once the agribiz folks can't make a profit anymore.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur military and police are largely uncorrupt;
For now. If there is no more money to pay the cop or the military (which right now is mostly half way around the world) things can change easy.

All we can really discuss is our baseline here; compared to most countries in the world, our military now is a pristine example of perfection in action.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t really depends on how bad one thinks things are going to get, the reality is what we consider civilzation is a very thin veneer on some rather ugly looking things.

I wouldn't expect us to avoid them really; rather their impact will be muted.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, there is a lot of "natural resources' still left, but in most parts they aren't where most of the people are and a lot of knowledge has been lost.
Lots of people have this knowledge if you know where to look, and can speak a little spanish! :-D They might not have a greencard, but you got some land and a little communal willingness to share, there are plenty of knowledgeable folks able to help you out.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:23:11

Never leave wind to find wind.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Daculling » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:24:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', 'B')ut there are few doomers and greasing the palms in many of the indigent areas buys one a lot of status. So my question still stands for the doomers and not the majority of people.

Because despite their best interest most alcoholics won't leave a party until the booze runs out.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Cashmere » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:25:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')So why don't you just move and shut up?

1. Because I want the opportunity to meet you or people like you over the next 10 years.
2. Because it's no better anywhere else.

What you're really trying to say is that you're a flag-waving patriot, and you're going to be singing the star spangled banner all the way until your face contacts the pavement. Sing away dude. I'll be the one smirking at your faux-patriotism.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Sys1 » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:26:41

ProudFossil : I read sarcasm in your post. First, you need to understand that doomers are not doom wishers. I'm myself a super doomer, but that doesn't mean I want to die in a nuclear war or starving with my wife in the dark and the cold. We doomers are perhabs the most sensible, because we know how much we can loose when optimistics are just putting their head in the sand, believing that tomorrow will be like today until their death.

Why don't we leave? I'll tell you why : perhabs because some of us have already left, or simply because other organized their life with a peak oil thinking.
My life is great : The year I understood peak oil, I became a public school teacher, one of the most economic crash proof job. My wife is great, we are even waiting for a children. It's so strange to be happy when you know that everything is going down... I live in France, I bought some stuffs like bike or funny survival tools, I avoid debts and tell my wife to do the same. We live in a peacefull city with family folks all around. I don't think many places in the world are better than where I am.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby cube » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:35:51

To: ProudFossil

Be careful with the generalizations. You're trying to lump us all into the same group. Aside from being hard core doomers.......most people on this site don't really have much in common. There are plenty of conflicting opinions here.

I believe 80% of the world population will die-off. Is that hard core enough for you?
however......
1) I am not hoarding 1,500 lbs of canned food in the basement.
2) I think trying to live off grid using solar panels is a waste of money
3) Electric cars will never become viable
4) I do not own a gun
5) I do not plan on moving out of the city post PO
6) I do not chop my own fire wood or have a wood burning heater
7) Gardening will never play a serious role in providing food security
8 ) Public transit in the USA will not play a significant role in the near term (40 years)
9) Americans will still drive cars even if gasoline hits $10/gallon
10) I believe it's still possible to transport food 3,000 miles from the farm to the city without using oil.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby cube » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:50:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')So why don't you just move and shut up?
1. Because I want the opportunity to meet you or people like you over the next 10 years.
2. Because it's no better anywhere else.
What you're really trying to say is that you're a flag-waving patriot, and you're going to be singing the star spangled banner all the way until your face contacts the pavement. Sing away dude. I'll be the one smirking at your faux-patriotism.

Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. :) I have issues with people who essentially say "Love it or leave it."
If only it was that simple.

BTW did you know there's an "exit tax" if you wish to denounce your US citizenship? 30% tax on all assets....ouch >_<
There are 2 nations on this planet that sell "economic citizenship" and there's no capital gains tax. Both are in the Caribbean.
Yes I've been doing my research.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:51:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'A')s for the OP: If the Doomer scenarios really come true then there won't be a place that is "good", and if you are perceived an "outsider" by the core group then you're done for anyway. So moving to a place like Africa is probably (for the majority of people) not a solution.
But there are few doomers and greasing the palms in many of the indigent areas buys one a lot of status. So my question still stands for the doomers and not the majority of people.

Okay, if TSHTF in the way that some doomers think here and you could come up to my merry band of survivors with a handful of trinkets in order to bribe us to stay with us my first proposition would be to kill you and take your trinkets, why keep you around and feed you if all we want / could use are trinkets?

Now, if you have skills that make it easier for my group to survive, we'd keep you, but you would never be a PART of the group, you would just be allowed to stay as long as you have more benefits than drawbacks. Tolerance is a luxury that a group / society can only afford in prosperous times.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Cashmere » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:52:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'A')s for the OP: If the Doomer scenarios really come true then there won't be a place that is "good", and if you are perceived an "outsider" by the core group then you're done for anyway. So moving to a place like Africa is probably (for the majority of people) not a solution.
But there are few doomers and greasing the palms in many of the indigent areas buys one a lot of status. So my question still stands for the doomers and not the majority of people.

You're not asking a question, and you know it. You're making a statement.

But you seem to be hesitant to make the statement. Just make the statement.

What do you think of the people, like me, who are bashing what America has become? Tell me what you think, else I call you craven.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby ProudFossil » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:52:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')o: ProudFossil: Be careful with the generalizations. You're trying to lump us all into the same group. Aside from being hard core doomers.......most people on this site don't really have much in common. There are plenty of conflicting opinions here.
I believe 80% of the world population will die-off. Is that hard core enough for you? however......
1) I am not hoarding 1,500 lbs of canned food in the basement.
2) I think trying to live off grid using solar panels is a waste of money
3) Electric cars will never become viable
4) I do not own a gun
5) I do not plan on moving out of the city post PO
6) I do not chop my own fire wood or have a wood burning heater
7) Gardening will never play a serious role in providing food security
8 ) Public transit in the USA will not play a significant role in the near term (40 years)
9) Americans will still drive cars even if gasoline hits $10/gallon
10) I believe it's still possible to transport food 3,000 miles from the farm to the city without using oil.

Then I have a question for you. If the world stabilizes at the level you imply by your 10 points, why would 80% of the population die off? There seems to be an inconsistency between 80% dying and the ability to transport food 3,000 miles. The only real difference I see between what you are saying in the 10 points and the present is we will not travel as much or as far. That does not cause a dieoff. Or are you saying that you will just sit back and accept your demise?

My definition of the hard core doomers are those who predict that millions if not billions will starve, rampant lawlessness, cannibalism, concentration camps, etc., etc. Not those who believe or acknowledge that our present usage of energy will have to decline somewhat or be replaced by another type. I would place you in the latter group and not in the first.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:56:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'Y')es, there are examples of such; however, nothing done there is really irreversable; nor does it really take into account a lot of land that is currently fallow simply because it can't be nicely lined up into a monoculture super-field.
Obviously the land will recover given time, that's not really the concern, but in the short term it will cause problem. Then there is the question about the land that currently is not used: How easy accessible is it? If the majority of infrastructure stops well short of it, the land may not be really useful.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')esides, just because its monoculture now, doesn't imply it has to be monoculture once the agribiz folks can't make a profit anymore.

Obviously this will change, but there will be a transition gap which will cause all kinds of hurt. To say that "in the end it will be fine" doesn't really account for the really really bad times until it gets there.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll we can really discuss is our baseline here; compared to most countries in the world, our military now is a pristine example of perfection in action.

Actually not looking ahead is what got us into this mess. If you work on the "it was that way, it will be that way" mindeset, then sure, enjoy.
But if you want to make an informed decision it helps to look at history and see what happened in similar circumstances and then draw conclusions out of it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wouldn't expect us to avoid them really; rather their impact will be muted.

Why? What makes you think that?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ots of people have this knowledge if you know where to look, and can speak a little spanish! :-D They might not have a greencard, but you got some land and a little communal willingness to share, there are plenty of knowledgeable folks able to help you out.
True, but as far as North America is concerned I have a squeeze feeling based on the "me me me" culture that has ruled public thinking for the last 30 or so years.... We now have a generation (at least) that most likely won't think communal.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby ProudFossil » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 17:59:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')So why don't you just move and shut up?
1. Because I want the opportunity to meet you or people like you over the next 10 years.
2. Because it's no better anywhere else.
What you're really trying to say is that you're a flag-waving patriot, and you're going to be singing the star spangled banner all the way until your face contacts the pavement. Sing away dude. I'll be the one smirking at your faux-patriotism.

Well from your avatar you probably will last for about 10 years on a starvation diet.
As for it not being any better elsewhere, if you move to a locality with a subsitance level of existance, there will be no necessity to take from your neighbor for your own existance as they will have no more stuff than you do and vice-versa. Here while there is still surplus of goods and stuff your neighbors will come after it according to the doomers. So you would be much more safe in the subsitance locality.

And where did you see anything about flag-waving or patirotism in my posts. I asked a simple question. Why don't the hard-core doomers believe enough in their own predictions to prepare for them?
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby aldente » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 18:05:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', 'I') authorized this message and approve of it.

An excellent statement that is. Not to speak for the crowd here (it is not organized after all), but it seems that you are under the impression that there is a status quo to be found here, while there isn't one.

The 'run to the hills' reflex is a primary animal instinct (sort of when when smoke is smelled). Not productive or instrumental in case you search for an answer. To run to Central Africa is as much an option as it is for a child in the birth canal to move back in utero.

The object of this site is to allow mirror images of consciousness to develop under parameters of time constraints, the theme happens to be Peak Oil.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby cube » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 18:07:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', '.')...
Then I have a question for you. If the world stabilizes at the level you imply by your 10 points, why would 80% of the population die off? There seems to be an inconsistency between 80% dying and the ability to transport food 3,000 miles. The only real difference I see between what you are saying in the 10 points and the present is we will not travel as much or as far. That does not cause a dieoff. Or are you saying that you will just sit back and accept your demise?
Q: "why would 80% of the population die off?"
A: overshoot
I'm feeling really lazy right now and I'd rather not explain my 10 points in detail.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', '.')...
My definition of the hard core doomers are those who predict that millions if not billions will starve, rampant lawlessness, cannibalism, concentration camps, etc., etc. Not those who believe or acknowledge that our present usage of energy will have to decline somewhat or be replaced by another type. I would place you in the latter group and not in the first.
The most common cause for population reduction will be loss of fertility. And not billions of people starving to death like in some B-rated movie. Malnutrition alone (not starvation yet) is enough to reduce fertility rates. I think we're going to see our standard of living pushed back 100 years.
We'll still have toilets that flush and light switches but the pinnacle of human prosperity where Joe Sixpack goes to the shopping mall every week just to find something to fill up his McMansion in the suburbs will be over.
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Re: Why don't the doomers move?

Unread postby ProudFossil » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 18:07:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'P')roudFossil : I read sarcasm in your post.

It is not sarcasm, it is mockery. I am beginning to believe that the hard-core doomers are one of three kinds of posters.
1. They do not really believe in the massive die-off, chaos, lawlessness, etc. Rather they just like to sit at their computers and cause controversy and hand wringing. The more sensational the better. Watch the media. It has gotten to the point that anything that is reported is the most, the largest, the ---est, that has ever happened. Even if it is the ---est since the last time it happened. Tomorrow will have the most sunshine we have ever had since today. I am a prophet.
2. They do really believe in the massive die-off, chaos, lawlessness, etc., but are too damn lazy or comfortable in their present existance to really do anything about it. Which negates everything they say. Do as I say, not as I do. Don't drive a big car but I can fly in my private jet. Give me a break.
3. They are liars.
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