[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'U')S oil imports are going to continue to rise. Period.

No supply side additions is going to change this. Period.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'W')e ARE in transition away from hydrocarbons.

[ROCKMAN]

There may be an even worse scenario then previously seen. Demand destruction in the early 80's led to Saudi flooding the market with cheap oil. They did it to recover market share lost to other OPEC members. But now that all of OPEC, except Saudi, admit they are at PO there may not be as much competition for market share even if demand drops significantly. Even if OPEC has an production capacity exceeding demand by 10 mmbopd they wouldn't necessarily have to underbid each other to retain market share. Knowing they have limited reserves they might just cut back production. So we could be looking at significant demand destruction w/o a significant lowering of oil prices as was seen in the mid 80’s.

Now that’s a truly scary possibility.

[yesplease]

I wonder though... The drop in the 70s/80s is likely larger than the one we're seeing today due to social concerns as well as price controls during the early part of it. Not getting ripped a new one by another country can be a strong motivation for driving a more efficient auto and/or driving less. Assuming OPEC admitted they were at peak, would it be cost effective to pull supply w/ demand in order to keep high prices? If this was widely known people might be as irked as they were during the 70s after OPEC's embargo and cut consumption even more. Given how close EVs are in terms of cost to normal cars at ~$5/gallon, I wonder if we would rather send our money to our good buddy China for LiFePO4 battery packs than to the ME where countries are pulling supply just to get more money, or maybe synfuels from nukes? I think it would be very dangerous, financially speaking, for OPEC to screw around w/ supply right now when peak will do that work for them given alternatives.

[ROCKMAN]

All true UT but there a goodly number coming out the shipyards in the next few years. On the other hand, Petrobras is snatching up all they can find not already under contract. And forget the $500 million per DS number they throw out: all the recent construction awards I've seen the last few months have been $700 - 800 million.

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'W')e ARE in transition away from hydrocarbons.

[Micki]

No no, the president still likes Ethanol.
If it keeps us from using oil/petrol driving cars, I reckon the distillers will be running as much overtime as the printing presses.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain, I don't want to be a "I told you so," but if you go back and look at the strategy we put out early on in this administration, we understood what was coming. We knew the markets were going to be tight. And therefore, we called for additional exploration at home, plus what has been happening, which is an acceleration of new technologies -- including ethanol technologies -- to get us less dependent on crude oil from overseas.

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'N')o no, the president still likes Ethanol.
If it keeps us from using oil/petrol driving cars, I reckon the distillers will be running as much overtime as the printing presses.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain, I don't want to be a "I told you so," but if you go back and look at the strategy we put out early on in this administration, we understood what was coming. We knew the markets were going to be tight. And therefore, we called for additional exploration at home, plus what has been happening, which is an acceleration of new technologies -- including ethanol technologies -- to get us less dependent on crude oil from overseas.

[idiom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y best friend is a claims adjuster for Metlife. He tells me they are seeing a rise in ethanol auto claims. Apparently ethanol rots plastics and rubber engine parts faster.

[Plantagenet]

Congressman Dana Rohrbacher (R-Ca.) has proposed a bill to waive the EIS process for solar power plants, allowing them to be approved and built more quickly.

Rohrbacher proposes waiving EIS process for solar plants

Environmentalists oppose his plan to expedite solar power plant construction

[roccman]

I write parts of EISs and other environmental documents for a living...have done it for 15 years...

40 CFR (or the NEPA) says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ec. 1506.11 Emergencies.

Where emergency circumstances make it necessary to take an action with significant environmental impact without observing the provisions of these regulations, the Federal agency taking the action should consult with the Council about alternative arrangements. Agencies and the Council will limit such arrangements to actions necessary to control the immediate impacts of the emergency. Other actions remain subject to NEPA review.

[Plantagenet]

Don't worry.

Pelosi will never allow Rohrbacher's bill to even come up for a vote.

The EIS process for potential solar power plants will grind along for decades.