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How long before the grid goes down?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

How long before the grid goes down?

1. 1 year until brownouts, down for good <5 years
15
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2. 3-5 years until brownouts, 10-20 years down for good.
33
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3. 5-10 years until brownouts, 20-30 years down for good.
27
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4. We might see some brownouts, but we'll always find a way to keep the lights on.
40
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Total votes : 115

Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby JustaGirl » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 22:40:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he release of methane in artic coastal areas pretty much insures most of us are going to die... ending the human chapter FOREVER.


You know was well as I do, that is dependent on how much is released into the atmosphere at a time. Of course if a large enough amount is released it is lights out for everyone, everywhere.
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Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby Roccland » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 22:48:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he release of methane in artic coastal areas pretty much insures most of us are going to die... ending the human chapter FOREVER.


You know was well as I do, that is dependent on how much is released into the atmosphere at a time. Of course if a large enough amount is released it is lights out for everyone, everywhere.


In as much we are even discussing it is really really bad.
500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby outcast » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 10:54:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '[')


A harder concept for most people to get is that we have exceeded our carrying capacity as a species...are currently in overshoot...and a dieoff will result.

That said...

" I realize that it's a pretty frightening concept, and people need to do what they need to do to get through it."


Do you think the dieoff will be uniformly spread across all continents? Will North Americas farmland ,technology, culture or guns help us or hurt us? I for one plan to not participate in the dieoff if I can help it and I think my chances are pretty good.[/quote]


I find it rather interesting that you can believe absolutly a die-off will happen even when you just finished saying we can easily find alternative ways to run our heavy machinery, if we can find alternatives for that, we can pretty much find alternatives for fertilizers too. Operational tractors + fertilizers = no die off.
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Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby Aimrehtopyh » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 12:06:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'O')perational tractors + fertilizers = no die off.


Those are two pretty big assumptions, but let's ignore the effects of severe energy scarcity for a minute.

I happen to agree with Roccland that the arctic methane release scenario is a real killer.

Even with fertilizer and operational tractors we would be hard-pressed to relocate North America's bread basket. Moving it 500 miles north over the course of twenty years is probably doable. The trouble is that this methane release scenario might mean that we'll be required to move it 1000 miles in less than five years. I doubt our ability to relocate or rebuild all the rail lines, homes, schools, silos, water wells, etc. fast enough to save a great many people from starving.

This is without factoring in any further rise in energy prices or social instability.
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Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby zeke » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 12:13:46

tractors and so-called "fertilizers" are part of the death spiral we're in and will be abandoned if we are to survive.

this really is a basic, widely-known concept...modern agriculture DESTROYS soil and nutrition. it gives the appearance of productivity because countless millions of matter is produced, but the cost in energy, lives, lost nutrition and quality is so enourmous that not even a dumb 3rd-grader would make a deal that lousy.

if we're going to survive the oil age, we're going to need food that is nourishing, and growable without "modern" agri-tech.

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Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 14:48:30

8) outcast
I think we will have a dieoff with or without oil. Six Billion on this planet is just too many sheep in the pasture and we will run out of grass shortly. We have already over fished the oceans to the point of collapse. Just like starving sheep pulling the last grass stems up by the roots. Now the people that used to eat fish must try to share the food grown on land with the five billion already fighting for it.
The US probably has enough farmland to feed its 300 million even without oil but we will probably have to fight off others who want to claim a share. Starvation or war what a choice and a good chance you will get both. Running out of oil would just bring everything to a head all at once.
If America adopts Pickens plan or one like it and we get independant of oil Chindia will just absorb the freed up supply and use it to expand another billion or so to pull up the last blade of grass in the world. the question is can we manage to let them kill each other off while we sit here between the solar panels and the algae farm unnoticed by the winner of WW3?
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Re: How long before the grid goes down?

Unread postby bodigami » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 21:04:47

...
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