[Graeme]

What Happened to Peak Oil?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, the real point of peak oil here is not that oil supplies are running out, the sky is falling and the world is coming to an end. Rather, it is an understanding that there will come a time when the ever-increasing global demand for oil will permanently outstrip the supply. What does that mean? Well for starters, it means that oil shocks will not be the result of supplies being artificially constrained by some monopoly like the Seven Sisters, the Texas Railroad Commission or OPEC. Peak oil means that oil producers will simply not be able to cost-effectively pump enough oil out of the ground rapidly enough to meet the rising oil demand.

There are two things that can stop this train wreck:

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]What Happened to Peak Oil?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, the real point of peak oil here is not that oil supplies are running out, the sky is falling and the world is coming to an end. Rather, it is an understanding that there will come a time when the ever-increasing global demand for oil will permanently outstrip the supply.

[DantesPeak]

joewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.

What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.

So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to go away?

[Graeme]

Joewp, Thanks for pointing out that peak oil is not one-dimensional. However, there will be a host of other unpredictable factors besides supply and demand that will affect our collective fate.

[SILENTTODD]

Who the hell is Edward Harrison? Is he a petro-geologist or an engineer? What are his qualifications to comment on the subject?

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', ' ')Is he a petro-geologist or an engineer? What are his qualifications to comment on the subject?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'j')oewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.

What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.

So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to away?

[mark]

GATA has it right, the gold market is manipulated.

The "plunge protection team" is charged with "stabilizing" the equity markets.

The FED and the Treasury have long coordinated action with other central banks in the currency markets.

At critical times all markets are subject to manipulation, but only in the short term. Do you imagine the oil market is different?

How high does oil have to go to shut off demand? Well, now they know.

Resources are responsible for our current civilization. The most important is oil. And now it's supply is constrained. Water too. Another post touts Brazil as the worlds new bread basket, able to support more and more billions of people. Simply not so.

Even us PO's can't quite imagine our whole world turned upside down due to resource scarcity. EVERYTHING is changing but our hubris and denial will keep the new great game going who knows how long.

Those few of us who see what's coming can do ought to alter our course, the lessons learned must be learned by all, not just the few.

[lorenzo]

So, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere, but in a scenario that doesn't take into account the rapid transition to renewables.

Does anyone have a study showing how the mass transition towards far more efficient electric vehicles running on non-oil generated electricity, will push the Peak Oil date back?

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'S')o, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere, but in a scenario that doesn't take into account the rapid transition to renewables.

Does anyone have a study showing how the mass transition towards far more efficient electric vehicles running on non-oil generated electricity, will push the Peak Oil date back?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', ' ')I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now.

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'G')ood question. Because I'm beginning to think the "experts" are correct and PO won't happen until around 2036. And, since I've determined that, with any luck, that should be my last year on this planet, I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now.

[Ayoob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'G')ood question. Because I'm beginning to think the "experts" are correct and PO won't happen until around 2036. And, since I've determined that, with any luck, that should be my last year on this planet, I should just continue partying like it's 1999 and stop wasting my time worrying about it now.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'j')oewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.
What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.
So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to away?

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere, but in a scenario that doesn't take into account the rapid transition to renewables.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'S')o, when will Peak Oil arrive? Most experts put it between 2030 and 2040 somewhere

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'j')oewp is right, there is still some lack of understanding but the author otherwise is mostly on the right track.
What annoys me is that people like the author keep saying the fall from $147 oil to $110 represents something important. No it doesn't. Short term swings of up to 30% in the price of oil don't represent much of anything. I've been saying that for at least two years here.
So China did some extra pre-Olymipic buying and SemGroup was short 100 million barrels and had to cover when China called for their oil deliveries (to over-simplify). Yes these things are happening because we are at or near peak oil, but who said market swings were going to away?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')he price per barrel ROSE from $55.00 to 147.00 in a year and a half. It came close to tripling in price, and people here were arguing it was all due to a shortage of supply. Now a 30.00 drop from 147.00 may not appear to be much, but it is HUGE, taken that a barrel was only 55.00, last year. These are huge swings, and though the peak oil theory is playing out over time, it fails to fully explain the recent run up and run down. You seem to be emotionally attached to an idea and are unable to let go of it.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')he price per barrel ROSE from $55.00 to 147.00 in a year and a half. It came close to tripling in price, and people here were arguing it was all due to a shortage of supply. Now a 30.00 drop from 147.00 may not appear to be much, but it is HUGE, taken that a barrel was only 55.00, last year. These are huge swings, and though the peak oil theory is playing out over time, it fails to fully explain the recent run up and run down. You seem to be emotionally attached to an idea and are unable to let go of it.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow long do you think demand destruction, either because of high prices or conservation, would continue to make an impact on price and supply in a global economic environment, where oil consumption has shown an upwards trend for the past nearly 40 years?