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The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 19:47:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '
')In that case I'd go back to California, but I'm not sure that's the best choice right now. :cry:


What makes you feel you belong there? For instance, I spent 13 years in Southern California. I "grew accustomed" to it in kind of a stockholm syndrome way. I don't think I ever belonged there. I also don't think you have to move back to where you grew up. It's really a soul searching thing you have to do to determine the region that calls to you.
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 21:11:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '
')In that case I'd go back to California, but I'm not sure that's the best choice right now. :cry:


What makes you feel you belong there? For instance, I spent 13 years in Southern California. I "grew accustomed" to it in kind of a stockholm syndrome way. I don't think I ever belonged there. I also don't think you have to move back to where you grew up. It's really a soul searching thing you have to do to determine the region that calls to you.

Born, raised, and raised my children there. I know how to garden there, how to talk to people there, I have all my friends and family there (with a very few exceptions). I know how to live there. People care more about their neighbors than their property values. :x

Not much chance of going back with housing prices the way they are. Guess I'm just feeling homesick. :(
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby katnipkid » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 23:13:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '
')In that case I'd go back to California, but I'm not sure that's the best choice right now. :cry:


What makes you feel you belong there? For instance, I spent 13 years in Southern California. I "grew accustomed" to it in kind of a stockholm syndrome way. I don't think I ever belonged there. I also don't think you have to move back to where you grew up. It's really a soul searching thing you have to do to determine the region that calls to you.

Born, raised, and raised my children there. I know how to garden there, how to talk to people there, I have all my friends and family there (with a very few exceptions). I know how to live there. People care more about their neighbors than their property values. :x

Not much chance of going back with housing prices the way they are. Guess I'm just feeling homesick. :(



What part of CA are you referring to? I just read an article on the housing prices in CA. They mentioned one community near San Jose where housing is drastically reduced in price because of the mortgage/repro nonsense. Some new construction is just sitting there unfinished, while other 'hoods are not 'hoods at all, as all that is there is a road and empty lots. Older homes apparently were not selling there either.
I envy the gardeners who live in that state, esp. after having to deal with zone 5 and short, cold growing seasons...and long, near zero F winters!
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby Jenab6 » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 23:55:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'I') was just on another forum where the question was posed re: what you would take if you were bugging out 'into the unknown'.

Why do people insist on this fantasy?

Just think about it: some disaster is happening, severe enough for you to be forced to leave your home (a fire, hurricane, flood, etc.). Thousands of other people are probably displaced also. You won't be able to camp out on public or private land, even if it's a decent spot (you know the owners will be looking for this sort of activity, shotguns ready). The hotels will either be full or uninhabitable. Shelters, rest stops and campsites will be crowded and dangerous.

Is there some reason you wouldn't want to go stay with family or friends? It seems as though people just think there will be some idyllic mountain area (that no one ELSE knows about) that they can just somehow find (because we're "bugging out into the UNKNOWN"), without being arrested for trespassing, coming across thugs/druggies who have staked out the area already, or falling prey to the elements.

I've had to evacuate before (wildfires) and it really makes it much easier if you have a place to go already. We packed important documents, a few changes of clothes, and the kids' toys and went to grandma's. :)

Now, if things were so bad that we didn't have that option (a tsunami or its badness equivalent) then it seems better to choose a place to go outside your geographic area IN ADVANCE rather than just "going somewhere".

Is this just a case of "trusting" that "something" will turn up? Some macho "live off the land" wish-fulfillment? Or what? I'm baffled.

You're looking at people whose picture of the pastoral life has come to them via television dramas involving pioneers. If TV show pioneers have problems, they are dramatic ones, like having to fight off Injuns or alien monsters, and of course the humans always win. In the TV series, there's always that perfect spot over there, with nobody owning it: it's just there. So the TV pioneers go over there, and usually it's just a few steps from where their spaceship landed, and set up camp, and begin organizing activities necessary to creating a more permanent camp, and you are never shown the nitty-gritty details (sawing wood, etc.) and the time factor is compressed by about the same factor that the number of Jewish victims of WW2 has been exaggerated (20).

This kind of people has overly romantic notions about hard work because they don't do any of it. They've never built a house, so they imagine that they could build one, figuring that they can rediscover all the accumulated wisdom that has gone into architecture over the past 4000 years through their own common sense. And they never really put that hypothesis to the test until they must, and when they must, they fail. If their lives had depended on being successful, they die. Many people are exactly that sort of fool.

Living through a disaster does require a continuously habitable place to do the living in. Finding one takes time, and it is necessary to beat the crowds to the market for suitable sites. Further, it takes a lot of practice to learn to do without fossil fuels and electricity. There are details to work out, such as water supply, food supply, transportation, security, and so on. The working out of those details will take months at least, and most likely it will take years of practice to become competent at pioneer living.

But, to answer your question again: most people are unrealistic, overly romantic, about survival. They think a disaster is an adventure, like being in a TV drama where everything is scripted to turn out fine. And in their minds, such people usually picture themselves and their behavior as being "movie star pretty." They'll as easily imagine themselves in Steve Zodiac's pilot seat in Fireball XL5. Fools.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MadScientist', 'j')ust laugh and consider the positive implications for the human gene pool.

As a fan of eugenics, I applaud the wisdom of this remark, though it would be nice if we'd the time and resources needed to improve human intelligence through gentler methods than natural selection.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'M')aybe people are just tired and want a simpler, less troublesome life. Life alone in the wild is cold, damp, dangerous, you get snakes inside your sleeping bags and your kids/parents/old folks get mauled and eaten by bears or something. You get ill pretty fast, you need caffeine or nicotine, there's nothing to eat and everyone perishes. Many centuries ago, before coal, oil, NG or whatever, people would already live together. Bug Out types are either suicidal or misinformed.

Mostly, they're misinformed. They have taken TV as reality about as much in practical matters as they have in political matters. And they don't like it when you contradict what TV has misinformed them about. (Who are you, anyway? All the experts are on TV. If you were an expert, you'd have been on TV.)

Nice description about life in the wilderness. Yes, critters will pester you. Raccoons or possums raid my trash can most nights. I've chased black bears out of my yard. I've shot wildcats in my goat pasture. Deer can be bothersome. Snakes aren't a big problem in my area, but in some places they're worse.

On the other hand, bugging out is certainly doable if you have the time to accumulate the resources and get through the learning curve. It's not something anyone can do from scratch in a few weeks. I've recently had long power outages, which let me test my theory that I don't really need electricity anymore. I probably don't need fossil fuels, either.

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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 07:29:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '[') and the time factor is compressed by about the same factor that the number of Jewish victims of WW2 has been exaggerated (20).

Jerry Abbott

And you believe that the correct figure is_________? And where did you get this information?
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 08:07:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'I') was just on another forum where the question was posed re: what you would take if you were bugging out 'into the unknown'.

Why do people insist on this fantasy?

Just think about it: some disaster is happening, severe enough for you to be forced to leave your home (a fire, hurricane, flood, etc.). Thousands of other people are probably displaced also. You won't be able to camp out on public or private land, even if it's a decent spot (you know the owners will be looking for this sort of activity, shotguns ready). The hotels will either be full or uninhabitable. Shelters, rest stops and campsites will be crowded and dangerous.



Maybe this is true down in the lower 48, it is NOT true up here.

You ever hear the line "You can't GET here from there"?

About the only way to get to Alaska over land is the Al-Can highway, over 2000 miles across the Yukon Territory. Even in the good times, all the gas stops are only open a portion of the year. When the SHTF, about NOBODY gets to Alaska.

You got any IDEA how BIG Denali National Park is? Its quite close to the size of Texas by itself. You got any idea how few people really live up here? Less than a neighborhood in Houston once you go an hour out of Anchorage.

It would be quite easy up here to go off into the wilderness and not see anybody for YEARS. People do it all the time up here.

It is NOT a fantasy. It is quite possible to go far enough out into the wilderness you won't be bothered by other people. The Yukon Territory is ENORMOUS, and virtually NOBODY lives there.

Could most people survive in the Yukon? No. Its not necessary though. You just need to be in a neighborhood where the population is small enough relative to the resources of the neighborhood. Such is the case in the Matanuska Valley.

So I refute your argument its a fantasy. It is NOT a fantasy. I most certainly could go so far out nobody would ever find me, but I won't do that because that is no way to live. My community can live though, because it is not overpopulated for what nature can provide. At least unless the oceans die and we on;t get a good salmon run next year.

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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 08:14:19

Looking at this from a different perspective. I am already as bugged out as I can get. I am the local that will be there when you make your escape. If I try to move further back I am really starting to come out the other side. Moving to a state or federal park land is a poor option. Very rough terrain covered with trees. Except for a few stocked fish very little food and not enough dirt to grow any. Also parks are the only location out of the city where a lot of potental escapees have actually been, so many will show up there. Probably get five familys per camp site and the potential for deadly conflicts is high. Staying on my own land where I know where everything is is a much better option.
I expect the first real sign of TSHTF will be the price of fuel getting so high along with high unemployment that the town votes to shut down town government to end local property taxes. They will close the school, pull the plug on the sewer plant and lay off the road crew. This will close all the side roads at the first snow. As I wont be able to waste fuel this may be an asset as looters wont be able to drive within five miles of my front door. If I lose the grid I'll lose whats in the freezer but everything else in the house works. When it gets dark I can light a candle or go to bed after filling the wood stoves. Might have to get with the neighbors and block the roads at the first bridge for security. I dont know is snowshoeing five miles to take a turn at guarding the gate would be worth it or even feasible. Perhaps a skull with a bullet hole in it with a no trespassing sign will work as well and leaving them quessing as to exactly where you are laying for them.
Then I quess its a matter of how complete the breakdown has been. Will there be any supplies available at the nearest rail line? Even if there is and you can travel there reasonably safe it is seven miles and a thousand foot climb back to this old house.
Too many posibilities to think them all through. Just have to deal with it when it gets here.
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 11:17:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katnipkid', '
')
What part of CA are you referring to?

San Bernardino.
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 19:42:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '
')Nice description about life in the wilderness. Yes, critters will pester you. Raccoons or possums raid my trash can most nights. I've chased black bears out of my yard. I've shot wildcats in my goat pasture. Deer can be bothersome. Snakes aren't a big problem in my area, but in some places they're worse.

On the other hand, bugging out is certainly doable if you have the time to accumulate the resources and get through the learning curve. It's not something anyone can do from scratch in a few weeks. I've recently had long power outages, which let me test my theory that I don't really need electricity anymore. I probably don't need fossil fuels, either.

Jerry Abbott


The description was pretty much from limited camping experience. I hate camping. The snake in the sleeping bag was from a MacGyver episode; there are no bears around; I really need caffeine, though. I need it bad.

I suppose the learning curve is steep but manageable, if there's an initial supply of needed things and natural resources around to provide for the Bug Out Party. But I still think it's suicidal to consider it, and again I recall that, millions of years ago, men would gather to increase their chances of survival.

I'll get out of my normal path and leave a moral remark, which I admit may be out of tone: is this "bug out into the wild" a by-product of our increasingly self-centred culture, one that deeply distrusts other people?
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 19:53:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '
')Are you inviting us all up there? I've already made that drive from Texas to Fairbanks and back once. Of course, that was in May...


The main problem you have now is in fitting into the current economy, aka finding a job. You certainly won't have a problem finding a place to live, either renting or buying, whatever suits you.

If you have enough money and don't need a job, you would be hard pressed to pick a better spot to ride out the storm, IMHO.

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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby coyote » Tue 02 Sep 2008, 09:19:26

RE, do you garden? What's the growing season like up there? I'm currently in southern California, not too far from where RSG used to live. The growing season here is ridiculous, tremendous - only problem is, when TSHTF there's no damn water here and too many people.

Mos, I like your philosophy of finding the right place. Southern California is not the right place for me, and not just because of the lack of water. Northern California is probably best for me. I'm keeping an eye on the housing situation. Maybe I can actually get set up next year, though that would mean *gasp* going into debt! :?
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby deMolay » Tue 02 Sep 2008, 23:11:52

What about people who already live in the wild. Should we all move to town?
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 02 Sep 2008, 23:19:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'W')hat about people who already live in the wild. Should we all move to town?


You'll have to move deeper into the wild ........
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby deMolay » Tue 02 Sep 2008, 23:54:47

I bugged out gradually over 25 years, and it is working fine.
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 02:41:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'R')E, do you garden? What's the growing season like up there? I'm currently in southern California, not too far from where RSG used to live. The growing season here is ridiculous, tremendous - only problem is, when TSHTF there's no damn water here and too many people.


I am not a gardener, I hunt and fish, but there are quite a number of small farms up here in the Matanuska Valley. If you have Google Earth, you can pull up a picture which will give you an idea of the amount of land devoted to agriculture. I recently put up several pics of the Local Produce available at the Alaska State Fair in my "Reverse Engineering" Yahoo Group, which is open to anyone who wants to join.

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/reverseengineering/

Main veggies that seem to grow well up here are Carrots (much sweeter than those in the lower 48), red potatoes, rhubarb, squash and leafy greens. Also lots of folks grow hothouse tomatoes, most all our tomatoes are local in the groceries. Some shipped up from WA though also. Local Berries also available, Blueberries and Razzberries mostly. If you are the sort that does canning like my friend Christina, you can make your own Jams and Jellies to last year round.

To date, the growing season has been short, but this year its been about a month longer. Plenty of rain for sure. Topsoil is thin and rocky not suitable for industrialized agriculture, but local farms do OK. All things being equal, I suspect agriculture improves in terms of length of growing season over time here, and you can improve the topsoil with mulching.

Its hard to say whether we could self-sustain on local agriculture by itself with the current population, I think we probably could though more people would have to work the land. However, long as the fishery doesn't quickly evaporate, between the fish, the moose and the agriculture extant I am pretty sure there is enough to sustain the current population in the Valley itself. Don't think we could support the population in Anchorage, but they could perhaps make it on what the Kenai Peninsula provides.

Making the whole community completely self sustaining would be a project for sure. Its a topic of discussion between me and my friends whenever we go out hunting. Not because of Peak Oil, just because its the culture around here. Most folks I know who hunt and fish and have families by the end of summer have 1000 lbs or more of meat and fish they smoke and/or freeze. I dont know anyone though besides some local farmers who live entirely on local produce, the groceries here have all the typical stock shipped up currently from the lower 48. Just have to see when the time comes whether we can pull it off.

One thing we certainly have no shortage of are Guns, Bullets, Bows, Crossbows and Traps. EVERYBODY owns a gun. If we DON'T work together, it would be a serious Melee, and everyone knows that. :-)

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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby coyote » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 03:37:04

Thanks RE. Interesting snapshot of your locality.

I will be most curious to hear from folks around the country and the world after tshtf. We're all choosing our spots with care, but the unexpected could always bite any of us, or lend a helping hand. Particulars of climate change on individual regions is not yet known for certain. How populations will react: same. How much food and water without cheap energy. Etc.

I expect that the Internet will not go down for a while, if at all. We should be able to compare notes afterward. Of course, perhaps those who are doing really well in their locations will not be eager to share...! :lol:
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 04:19:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '
')I expect that the Internet will not go down for a while, if at all. We should be able to compare notes afterward. Of course, perhaps those who are doing really well in their locations will not be eager to share...! :lol:


I am not nearly so confident of this. Its my opinion that when TSHTF, the internet is one of the first things to go, for a variety of reasons.

First off is the power it takes to run the servers and run the routers. It will become intermitent, and the whole web being up and running at any given time would be rare.

On a political level, when TSHTF, we likely devolve to a Police State for a while. Control of Information is important to the maintenenace of a PS, and allowing free flow of information about what is happening in given areas would be controlled by the PTB.

Individually, most folks will have trouble maintaining their computers and keeping them running for any length of time. For a while, some of the best prepared will be able to run their laptops off of Solar Cells, or have Battery Backups that allow them to store power during the short times its provided across the grid. However, this ability will deteriorate quickly, over a year or two at best. You won't be able to get replacement batteries, replacement hard drives and the computers will go offline one by one, even if the net was maintained.

You will know when TSHTF CLEARLY when one day you try to sign on, and the Internet has gone Dark. Its coming, just I can't tell you exactly when. If you are 50 or less though, if you figure to live to 70, I suspect it happens in your lifetime.

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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 14:49:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')First off is the power it takes to run the servers and run the routers.


That's the least of my concerns. The coal's not going to run out for a while unless it all gets diverted to CTL. Also, computers keep getting more efficient.
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Re: The myth of "bugging out into the wild"

Unread postby coyote » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 07:24:57

Yeah, and natural gas from shale is actually looking pretty decent these days. If I think about it, electricity is one of the ways we define ourselves as a civilization and as a first world nation. I think that keeping the lights on will be a priority for the powers that be. Of course, the intent is not the same as a guarantee, and all fossil fuels will become more or less unextractable in the long term.

I could see parts of the net going down, definitely. Some of the big servers could be down at any given time, and things could generally become less stable. That's more the situation I imagine. Aaron might be someone to ask about this, he seems to know something about the infrastructure of the Internet. Me, I'm a front end guy.

But I think it comes back to what was mentioned above, regionality. What is the situation where that particular server and T3 connection is located? I bet New England is going to regret allowing the rich folks to block that big offshore wind farm proposal off Massachusetts - but San Diego for instance is sitting next to a nuclear power plant. I've got a friend who works there, it's not going to be shut down anytime soon. And we've got a smaller gas plant. And there's an LNG terminal just opened right over the border. San Diego will certainly have electricity shortages (unless they manage to complete that huge solar farm out in the desert) but no permanent outages in the near term. (Water's our problem, though folks around here are only just now beginning to realize it.)

And there are other regions that rely on things like hydro or coal plants to a greater or lesser extent. It'll be less reliable and a lot more expensive - folks will probably actually turn lights off when they leave a room - but it'll be there, for some at least, for some of the time, for a while. I see it being economically viable in the short term because I expect so many to be e-commuting to work. They'll (we'll) pay for it if it'll also pay the rent. For a while.
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